2017 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Danny Duffy

Danny Duffy
Age: 28 years old
Bats/Throws: L/L
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 190 lbs
Position: Starting Pitcher

THE SKILLS

Duffy was once an elite level prospect, but he was never that guy at the big-league level through five big league seasons. In his 6^th season he finally became the guy that was hoped for going 12-3 with a 3.51 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 188 strikeouts in 179.2 innings. That’s elite level work from a guy who was nowhere near elite before, and that alone causes some concern, or it should though I know that for many it does not. As I write this piece I notice that Duffy has an ADP of 106.2 and 24^th at the starting pitcher spot. I’ve got issues with that. Let’s explore.

The first point to consider is that pretty much everything Duffy did last season he did better than ever before. A high-end talent, it’s still hard to figure that Duffy would not only improve everywhere but completely blow past his career norms – across the board. Take a look.

LOB% = Left on Base percentage
SwStr% = Swinging Strike Rate

So, is it reasonable to expect a guy to improve that much across the board? I would argue that if there was incremental growth sure that would make sense, but we’re talking about a guy moving from being a below average pitcher to an all-star overnight. Let me repeat. Duffy went from 5-years of league average work to pitching at an all-star level.

Let’s explore.

STRIKEOUTS: You can’t add more than two full batters to a K/9 rate and just accept it. It doesn’t work that way.

SWINGING STRIKES: You can’t blindly accept 50 percent growth in the swinging strike rate. It doesn’t work like that.

WALKS: You can’t cut 1.75 walks off your walk rate and just accept it. It doesn’t work that way.

All of this is particularly difficult to respect as “the new norm” when you note that he threw 49.8 percent of all his pitches in the strike zone last season, just two percent above his career mark. He did improve his first pitch strike rate at 62.2 percent (career 57.7), but still there was little growth in throwing strikes. 

What about pitch distribution – did that change? Here are his pitch distribution totals according to PITCHf/x data.

Obviously, Duffy made one huge change. He stopped throwing his straight fastball and ramped up his use of the 2-seam pitch which is basically a slightly slower, higher movement, fastball. So, that explains his success, right? Well, not really. In fact, it appears to be the exact opposite. According to PITCHf/x info here are the results on that 2-seam fastball in 2016: .341/.384/.667. The pitch was murdered last season as if every batter he threw it at was Mike Trout. This is yet another reason to be concerned about Duffy. He enacted a significant change in his pitch distribution, in essence pretty much adding a new pitch, and that pitch failed miserably. By the way, the swinging strike rate on the pitch was just 7.9 percent. It didn’t fool anyone, yet he still improved everything across the board.

I think I’m even more concerned about the walk than the strikeout. Let’s look at Duffy’s yearly walk rates. The middle column is the strike percentage of Duffy. Did that number take off last season while the walks plummeted? What about first pitch strikes? Surely that number took off last season as he got way ahead in the count to stave off walks, right?

Same strike rate and a slight first pitch strike rate do not speak to a nearly 40 percent walk rate drop last season. It doesn’t. Maybe the new level is who Duffy is, but I’m not going to accept it when I cannot explain how it happened.

How were balls hit off Duffy last season? Despite all his success, Duffy he had a tremendously high hard hit ball rate of 36.6 percent. Amongst the pitchers who qualified for the ERA title last season he ranked 72^nd out of 73. Yes, that means only Hector Santiago was hit harder than Duffy last season. Furthermore, if we drop the baseline down to 100-innings, we end up with 142 qualifiers. Duffy’s 36.6 percent hard hit ball rate was still 7^th worst in baseball. Does that sound like a guy who has the makings of an ace to you?

Let’s talk homers. Over his first 19 starts he allowed 15 big flies. However, over his last seven outings he was bombed for 12 homers. That’s hideous. Add it all up and we’re at 27 homers in 179.2 innings pitched leading to a 1.35 HR/9 mark which was the 18^th worst mark amongst starting pitchers. This had little to do with the fly ball rate, the mark of 42.8 percent was only 1.2 percentage points above his career mark (on its own a poor mark). The growth in the actual homers came from the four percent rise in his HR/FB ratio that was a career worst 13.0 percent. You can blame the HR/FB rise for the homer issues and of course that his partly fair. However, you also have to understand that his 0.85 GB/FB ratio last year, three hundredths off his career rate, is a poor number that will always leave him homer prone. In fact, that 0.85 GB/FB ratio of Duffy last season was the 10^th worst mark amongst starting pitchers.

Let’s speak about his late season implosion. Duffy threw 179.2 innings in ‘16, his first over 150-innings at the big-league level. It’s fair to question if he simply wore out late in the year because of all the innings. I think that played a part. I also believe the old regression monster reared its ugly head and bit Duffy hard, right in the ass. Here are his marks the last seven starts:

6.37 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 11.41 his per nine, 2.63 HR/9

Atrocious indeed.

Even if you’re a Duffy fan, isn’t there enough above to concern you?

CONCLUSION

Duffy allows too many fly balls. He was hit very hard last season. He tanked late in the year. He somehow struck everyone out while not walking anyone turning from Matt Moore into Madison Bumgarner overnight. You’re really buying that?

10-Team Mixed: Duffy is an SP5 here. Best case in my opinion, and I am the Oracle.

12-Team Mixed: I still don’t want him as anything more than a fifth starter, which means he won’t end up on any of my squads.

15-Team Mixed: You can try to make him your fourth SP here, but as your guessing you can tell I’m not exactly sold on that being the best option.

AL-Only League: I’d rather take Ervin Santana who has an ADP that is like 200 spots lower in mixed leagues. The cost is too high with Duffy in this format. Someone is going to really pay up for his services, and I’m simply not convinced that that he has the skills to back up what he did last season.