Player: Mike Napoli
Team: Texas Rangers
Position: First Base
Current ADP: 210
Positional Rank: 24
2016 season was quite the season for Napoli which saw him hit .239 with a career best 34 home runs, 92 runs and a career best 101 RBI with Indians. This coming after it looked as if though Napoli was on the back end of his career following two down seasons with Boston in 2014 and 2015 which saw the Red Sox trade Napoli to Texas in the latter part of the season. Now back in Texas where Napoli has always had some of his best seasons I find that he is being undervalued in drafts and should easily outproduce his current ADP and positional ranks.
As I said above Napoli has always found success as a member of the Rangers where he averaged 27 home runs over 360 at bats in his two seasons with the club back in 2011 and 2012. In Napoli’s brief stint with the Rangers in 2015 he hit .295 with five home runs over the team’s final 35 games. He has also hit well in Arlington, hitting .257 with 39 home runs and an .883 OPS at the Rangers home ball park.
| Napoli Rangers Career | ||||||||
| Year | G | AB | R | HR | RBI | BA | OBP | OPS |
| 2011 | 113 | 369 | 72 | 30 | 75 | 0.320 | 0.414 | 1.046 |
| 2012 | 108 | 352 | 53 | 24 | 56 | 0.227 | 0.343 | 0.812 |
| 2015 | 35 | 78 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 0.295 | 0.396 | 0.908 |
Napoli is slated to become the Rangers everyday first basemen in 2016, replacing Mitch Moreland who was signed by the Red Sox this offseason. The Rangers offense ranked fourth in the American League in runs scored last season and Napoli should slide into the middle of that lineup where he will be in a prime position to drive in runs which he proved that he still capable of doing after his career best 101 RBI last year with the Indians. The batting average is not going to be anything special for those who draft Napoli and striking out is a big part of his game as it is for most power hitters but with a 200+ ADP you will be hard pressed to find a player with the ceiling of 30+ home runs and 90+ RBI.
As we have in this Deep Sleeper Series let’s take a look at the FanGraph projections for Mike Napoli for this upcoming season.
| Fangraphs Projections | |||||||||||
| Team | G | AB | HR | R | RBI | BB% | K% | BABIP | AVG | OBP | OPS |
| Depth Charts | 132 | 474 | 25 | 66 | 75 | 12.7% | 28.3% | 0.290 | 0.234 | 0.336 | 0.775 |
| Steamer | 128 | 457 | 24 | 67 | 73 | 12.7% | 28.2% | 0.292 | 0.235 | 0.337 | 0.774 |
| Fans (6) | 142 | 519 | 26 | 79 | 87 | 12.0% | 26.0% | 0.300 | 0.247 | 0.342 | 0.783 |
| ZiPS | 121 | 424 | 23 | 56 | 67 | 12.6% | 28.4% | 0.288 | 0.233 | 0.335 | 0.786 |
| Average | 131 | 469 | 25 | 67 | 76 | 12.5% | 27.7% | 0.293 | 0.237 | 0.338 | 0.780 |
The first thing I notice with these projections is despite the fact that Napoli played 150 games and saw 557 at bats in 2016 not a single projection thinks he will get close to that number. Yet even with the projection that he averages 131 games and 469 at bats he still hit .237 with 67 runs, 25 home runs and 76 RBI. Now again I understand that last year was a career year for Napoli but if he manages to stay healthy and reach that 500+ at bat mark then you are looking at projections closing in on the 30-homer, 90-RBI mark that I mentioned earlier. Again I am definitely bullish on Napoli because of his move to a favorable hitters park and solid lineup around him but even so I think he deserves to be drafted ahead of the 18th round which is where he is going in most standard league formats right now.