Player: Matt Wieters

Team: Washington Nationals

Position:  Catcher

Current ADP: 226

Positional Rank: 14

2016 was quite the rebound season for Matt Wieters as he fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery that had limited him to just 111 games over the two years prior.  In 2016 Wieters hit .243 with 48 runs, 17 home runs and 66 RBI over 124 games for the Orioels.  Baltimore decided to let Wieters walk in free agency this offseason where he ultimately signed with the Nationals right as spring training was kicking into gear.  The Nationals had already acquired Derek Norris over the winter which lead many wondering why exactly they went ahead and signed Wieters but with the recent release of Norris the starting gig is fully in the hands of Wieters and now he finds himself as one of the better late round value plays on draft day.

For Wieters, when healthy, he has been one of the better offensive catchers in baseball.  As you can see from the chart below, excluding his injury plagued 2014 and 2015 seasons, he has averaged nearly 20 home runs and 70+ RBI a with a batting average that will sit around .250.

Season

Team

G

PA

HR

R

RBI

SB

AVG

OBP

OPS

2009

Orioles

96

385

9

35

43

0

0.288

0.340

0.753

2010

Orioles

130

502

11

37

55

0

0.249

0.319

0.695

2011

Orioles

139

551

22

72

68

1

0.262

0.328

0.778

2012

Orioles

144

593

23

67

83

3

0.249

0.329

0.764

2013

Orioles

148

579

22

59

79

2

0.235

0.287

0.704

2014

Orioles

26

112

5

13

18

0

0.308

0.339

0.839

2015

Orioles

75

282

8

24

25

0

0.267

0.319

0.742

2016

Orioles

124

464

17

48

66

1

0.243

0.302

0.711

For the catcher position I find that unless you are snagging one of the top 3 guys the overall average production is relatively the same.  Most catchers offer a mediocre average with home run power in the teens with a few players consistently offering 20+ home run ability.   For example, let’s look at the five catchers that are currently going ahead of Wieters and compare their production to what Wieters can provide.

2016 Stats

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Name

Team

ADP

G

PA

HR

R

RBI

SB

AVG

OBP

OPS

Salvador Perez

Royals

149

139

546

22

57

65

1

0.247

0.288

0.725

Brian McCann

Yankees

184

130

492

20

56

58

1

0.242

0.335

0.748

Russell Martin

Blue Jays

186

137

535

20

62

74

2

0.231

0.335

0.733

Yadier Molina

Cardinals

196

147

581

8

56

58

3

0.307

0.360

0.787

Welington Castillo

Diamondbacks

217

113

416

14

41

68

2

0.264

0.322

0.745

Matt Wieters

Orioles

226

124

464

17

48

66

1

0.243

0.302

0.711

So, as you can see, aside from Yadier Molina who offers the least amount of power but the best batting average, the overall production from Salvador Perez to Russell Martin is something around .240 with 60 runs, 20 home runs and 65 RBI.  Those players are all going anywhere from 3-to-6 rounds ahead of Wieters despite similar overall production.

Per usual let’s examine the FanGraphs projections for Wieters for this upcoming season.

Season

Team

G

PA

HR

R

RBI

SB

AVG

OBP

OPS

2017

Depth Charts

99

416

14

42

52

1

0.250

0.304

0.715

2017

Steamer

94

375

12

39

46

1

0.251

0.307

0.718

2017

Fans (9)

116

466

15

49

54

1

0.255

0.311

0.722

2017

ZiPS

93

353

12

34

46

1

0.248

0.301

0.711

 

Average

101

403

13

41

50

1

0.251

0.306

0.717

The first thing worth noticing is the games played.  The projections show that Wieters is likely going to be in a platoon or miss time due to injury.  The release of Derek Norris should take away any chance of a straight platoon so it is much more likely that we see Wieters playing something similar to what he had last year in the 130-game range.  Even with an average of 100 games played you can see that his projections of .251, 41 runs, 13 home runs and 50 RBI are still comparable with the catchers ranked ahead of him.  I have long been a proponent of waiting to draft a catcher in fantasy and Wieters is somebody I have been targeting late in drafts.