It was right around this time last year that everyone had Dellin Betances as the odds-on favorite to win the job as the Yankees closer. Manager Joe Girardi never tipped his hand and said that he wouldn’t make a final decision until late in the spring, but many of us still had Betances pegged. His command was impressive, his strikeout rate was outstanding and, well, simply put, he seemed like the perfect guy the Yankees needed in the ninth to say goodbye to Mariano Rivera and usher in a new era. His primary competition was newly acquired lefty Andrew Miller who cost the team a hefty sum following a dynamic season for both the Red Sox and Orioles. He also showed fantastic command and an even better strikeout rate. The main reason many felt he would serve as the primary set-up man was that he was a lefty, but after Betances struggled with his velocity in the early part of the spring and Miller continued his high-level performance, Girardi made his final decision and those who drafted Betances expecting saves, were left to fend for saves on the waiver wire.

Now even when you miss on a guy like Betances, you still win. While he may not be accruing saves, the rest of his numbers made him a phenomenal complement to any fantasy rotation. He actually did pick up nine saves, but it was the 14.04 K/9 over 84 innings, the 1.50 ERA and the 1.01 WHIP that had provided the value for his fantasy owners. But guys like Betances are few and far between, so making the right decision when choosing your closers during the draft is extremely important. Choose correctly and you’re styling. Pick the wrong guy and you’re wasting your FAAB money chasing saves the rest of the way.

Here’s a look at a few ninth-inning situations you should be monitoring this spring:

Atlanta Braves

Arodys Vizcaino vs. Jason Grilli

Grilli was nowhere near people’s radar last spring but a late trade of Craig Kimbrel to the Padres sent shockwaves through the fantasy community and he suddenly emerged as a prime candidate. He took it another step further when he was easily one of the league’s most dominant closers through the first half as he notched 24 saves with a 2.94 ERA (2.12 FIP) and a 12.03 K/9 over 33 2/3 innings. But then an Achilles injury cost him the rest of the year and the Braves turned to Arodys Vizcaino, a then-24-year-old with mid-to-high 90s heat and a strong curve to boot. He may have only notched nine saves, but that was more a reflection of a Braves team that was packing it in for the season. He looked incredibly strong as he posted a 1.76 ERA with a 9.98 K/9 over 30 2/3 innings.

But now Grilli wants his job back. He’s thrown a handful of bullpen sessions already and insists that he will be ready for the start of the season. It would seem that Vizcaino has the edge as his counterpart isn’t quite ready for spring game action just yet, but Grilli’s progress must be monitored. If you end up taking Vizcaino in your draft, a handcuff to Grilli with one of your bench picks is highly recommended.

 

Cincinnati Reds

J.J. Hoover vs. Jumbo Diaz vs. Tony Cingrani

Hoover was given the chance to work as the team’s closer last season after Aroldis Chapman took a liner off the noggin and knocked him out of commission for more than just a few weeks. He struggled through the month of April as he tried to hold down the ninth inning (5.19 ERA over 8 2/3 innings) and while he was crazy dominant through May and June, that was when the closing pressure was off and he was back to his set-up role. He is supposedly getting the early edge but Diaz, whose fastball consistently sits at 97 mph, is likely to get a look this spring as well. To add to the “mess,” you cannot ignore the fact that the Reds have been grooming Cingrani to be their closer from the moment they realized they would never be able to hold onto Chapman. The criticisms of Cingrani’s lack of secondary offerings were loud and the team opted to push him to the bullpen where he seems to be more well-suited. Keep a close watch here as this job could land in any one of the three’s hands here.

Philadelphia Phillies

David Hernandez vs. the rest of the lot

Word on the street has former Diamondbacks reliever Hernandez as the favorite to open the season as the Phillies’ closer now that Ken Giles is throwing in Houston. The 30-year-old righthander has a consistent 94 mph fastball, throws a solid curve and can even mix in a changeup every so often. He’s always been a decent set-up man but has also answered the call when asked to step in as a closer. He’s definitely not your ideal candidate, but the Phillies really don’t have a whole lot of options. They did bring in both Ernesto Frieri and Edward Mujica, two guys who have some closing experience, but neither of them have been strong options in recent seasons. Luis Garcia could get a look this spring, but new manager Pete Mackanin is going to have his hands full here. Keep Hernandez in the forefront of your minds during the reserve rounds of your draft, but don’t expect an official announcement until Mackanin has exhausted all of his options.

Milwaukee Brewers

Will Smith vs. Jeremy Jeffress

After seeing the success of a number of lefty closers recently, ruling a guy out just because he’s a southpaw is about as archaic a thought as waiting on starting pitching may be. Southpaw Will Smith has a low 90s fastball and excellent command of both a slider and a curve. Sitting behind Francisco Rodriguez through most of last season, the 26-year-old posted a 2.70 ERA with a 12.93 K/9 over 63 1/3 innings. He should be walking in as the favorite for the job, but you cannot ignore the presence of Jeffress, a 28-year-old right-hander with mid-90s heat and an impressive curve as well. He seems to have overcome some maturity issues and posted a 2.65 ERA with an 8.87 K/9 over 68 innings. Jeffress could end up as the primary set-up man, but until Smith becomes the alpha dog in this bullpen this spring, you have to figure, the job is still open.

San Diego Padres

Fernando Rodney vs. Kevin Quackenbush

Seems like Rodney is always competing for a job no matter where he lands and San Diego is no different. With Kimbrel no longer in the picture, the ninth inning is wide open. Rodney may not have the most impressive stuff anymore and we’ve all seen him blow his fair share of save opps over the years. But the fact remains that he is easily the most experienced closer in this bullpen and while he you may not love him as your closer, he will still offer solid fantasy value if he does get the job. Standing in his way seems to be Quackenbush, a 27-year-old righty who has filled in as a closer at random times during the season over the last couple of years. He doesn’t have mind-numbing stuff either and his strikeout rate puts him just under a batter per inning. But he’s shown some promise during his ascension through the system and where Rodney comes up short as a closer, he just might be able to succeed.

Toronto Blue Jays

Drew Storen vs. Roberto Osuna  

This could be one of the more interesting and exciting battles to watch all spring. Storen was fantastic in the closer’s role for the Nationals last year as he posted a 1.89 ERA with a 10.26 K/9 over 33 1/3 innings. His strikeout rate may have spiked in the second half, but once the team brought in Jonathan Papelbon at the trade deadline, everything seemed to fall apart for Storen. He looked awful in a set-up role and he was clearly not happy with the team’s decision. He now comes to Toronto, but will have to fight for the job again. There’s just no way you blindly replace Osuna after he picked up 20 saves while posting a 2.58 ERA and 9.69 K/9 over 69 2/3 innings last year. There were plenty of question marks given his lack of experience, but he managed to quiet all the skeptics with some outstanding pitching performances. Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins says that it’s an open competition between the two and that he doesn’t expect a decision to be made until midway through the spring. Of course, the final decision lies with manager John Gibbons, so we’ll just have to see which way he starts leaning once we get into spring competition. If you’re drafting right now, you cannot grab one without the other.  

Other teams to keep an eye on include: Arizona, Minnesota, Oakland, Seattle