Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals
Age: 22
Height: 6’1”
Weight: 175 lbs.
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
2015 Minor League Stats (AA & AAA): 500 PA, .322/.370/.458, 8 HR, 54 RBI, 68 R, 29 SB
2015 Major League Stats: 44 PA, .225/.295/.325, 1 HR, 5 R, 2 SB
As the centerpiece of a major trade, players are often times held to a higher level. They can be looked at as saviors of sort that will be the piece that eventually turns the franchise around. In Trea Turner’s case, he was the focal point of a trade, but he landed in a spot that will allow him to be eased into producing, thus taking some of the substantial pressure off of his back.
In late 2014, the Washington Nationals sent Steven Souza to the Tampa Bay Rays in a three-way deal that put Wil Myers in San Diego and Turner in Washington. The Nationals were dealing from excess and it allowed them to obtain a piece for the future. Turner spent the vast majority of the 2015 season in the minors, but it appears that he will be a full-time major leaguer sooner rather than later.
Turner produced solid numbers this spring, posting a triple slash of .231/.326/.385 with one homer, seven stolen bases, and an impressive six walks to seven strikeouts. Sure, his average left a lot to be desired, but his approach at the plate and on the base paths gave the Nationals some time to be hopeful for when Turner eventually gets the call. With the strikeout-prone Danny Espinosa being the only obstacle in his way, Turner should be breaking down the door to start at shortstop in no time.
For fantasy purposes, Turner is not going to be the next Alex Rodriguez or Carlos Correa. His power is present, but unless he takes a different approach at the plate, he’s unlikely to be anything more than a 15-homer guy at his peak. Turner is more of a groundball and line drive hitter that will do his damage on the base paths—much like most moderately successful fantasy shortstops in baseball.
Speaking of speed, Turner has an 84 percent stolen base success rate over two minor league seasons. While moving very quickly through the minors, Turner’s speed has been a constant. He managed to steal 24 bases in 2014 and 29 bags in 2015. Many scouts project Turner’s speed and base path awareness to continue to get better over time. He could easily steal 30 bases consistently each year. Combine that with 10-15 home runs and we may be looking at Jimmy Rollins in his prime with a tad more upside.
Turner doesn’t have exceptional plate discipline at this point in his career, but it’s still average at worst and he has plenty of room to grow. It would be encouraging to see him get his walk rate up to around 15 percent—something that seems likely to happen as he gets closer to his prime. While rapidly vaulting through the Padres' and Nationals' minor league systems, Turner has seen his strikeout rate hover right around 20 percent, give or take a point or two. It seems realistic that number will spike moderately when he gets his first long stretch in the majors, but given his makeup, he will likely settle in around that 20 percent number for the duration of his career.
For Turner, it’s only a matter of time before he’s in the major leagues with a starting job. He’s worth a stash in re-draft leagues, even those with shallow benches as it seems very feasible that he’ll make his 2016 debut within the first two months. Don’t be surprised if the Nationals use Turner as their leadoff man soon after he gets the call this year. That spot has been a thorn in the team’s side for a while now, but Turner very well may be the remedy.