Ryan Zimmerman was a first round selection of the Nationals, 4th overall, in the 2005 Entry Draft. He has gone on to have a long and productive career. Unfortunately, he’s spent an awful lot of time in the doctor’s office over the years, though to his credit he has performed admirably virtually every time he has been on the field, even with the constant injuries. Is the 31 year old washed up or does he still have some good baseball left in him? We shall discuss.

THE CAREER NUMBERS

Zimmerman has made an All-Star team.

He’s won two Silver Slugger awards (2009 and 2010).

He has finished in the top-25 in the MVP voting three times (2009, 2010, 2012).

He has six seasons with 20 homers.

He’s driven in 90 runs four times in 10 years.

He’s driven in at least 79 in three other seasons.

He’s a career .283 batter with a .349 OBP and .475 SLG.

That’s a pretty impressive career.

HIS HEALTH

Zimmerman seemingly is hurt as much as he is healthy. We all know it. It’s never been more evident than the last two seasons when he appeared in 61 and 95 games. Last season he was felled by an oblique issue as well as foot concerns. Neither issue should bleed into 2016.

In three of the last five seasons he’s failed to appear in 105 games.

Still, in four of seven seasons he’s been on the field at least 142 times, so maybe things aren’t as bleak as you think?

OK, maybe they are.

There’s a long track record of ill health here.

HIS SKILLS

Zimmerman hit .249 last season. So he’s washed up. Well… maybe not. Zimmerman is a .283 career batter. In his last eight seasons he’s hit under .275 just one time. Last year. Two interesting things happened around this. (1) His BABIP was .268 last season. His career mark is .314 and the mark had been between .313 and .316 the previous three years. It’s also a bit odd that his BABIP went down by fifty points considering his ground ball rate was up. (2) Zimmerman owns a 19.0 percent line drive rate for his career. In 2013-14 the mark was over 21 percent. Last year it was 16.6 percent. That’s concerning to me. Still there are a few more points to counter the ‘he just lost it’ feeling.

(3) Zimmerman had a 37.5 percent hard hit rate last season. That’s above his 35.0 percent career mark. (4) His pull rate went down a bit, but his opposite field mark stayed the same as he simply hit more balls up the middle. His 40.1 percent mark last season is above his 35.8 percent career mark, but squaring the ball and hitting it up the middle is what every hitting coach in the world tries to teach. He’s still hitting the ball hard, and up the middle. (5) Though his walk rate was down a tick, it was a seven-year low, it was 8.5 percent. Given that his career mark is 9.2 percent you can see that he really wasn’t that far “off.” (6) His K-rate wet up a bit to 20.3 percent, but for a fella with a 17.6 percent career mark that isn’t out of the realm of the expected.

I just don’t see skills slippage as the reason for the dip in batting average last season.

While he gave up some of the ole batting average last season, the power output was borderline prodigious.

Zimmerman hit 16 homers and had 25 doubles in 346 at-bats. That led to a .465 SLG. Know what his career mark is? How about .475.

Zimmerman’s pace last season, spread over 162 games, would equate to 27 homers.
Per 162 games in his career he’s averaged 25 homers.

Zimmerman’s pace last season, spread over 162 games, would equate to 43 doubles.
Per 162 games for his career he’s averaged 40 doubles.

This data is further proof to me that Zimmerman’s skills haven’t fallen as far as many think.

Further data.

Note that Zimmerman posted a 16.5 percent HR/FB ratio in 2015. That’s above his 13.6 percent career mark, but not obnoxiously so. It’s also the third time in four years that he’s posted a mark of 16 percent. It’s kinda who he is at this point.

His Isolated Power mark last season was .217, a six year high. His career mark is .192, so like everything else when it comes to socking the ball, the difference doesn’t suggest much of anything. It’s in the realm of an outcome that should have been expected.

THE GLOVE

A long time third baseman, Ryan didn’t play a single game at third last season, not one. He spent the campaign at first base where he suited up 93 times. He only appeared in one game in the outfield, after seeing 30 games of action there in 2014, so he will only qualify at the first base position in 2016. 

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well 30 proven strategies from the experts to help you win in the coming season.

 

 

OUTLOOK

Zimmerman only qualifies at first base and that hurts his value. Still, there’s a nice buying opportunity here as people see the batting average from last season, and the extensive track record of ill health, and they just move on dismissing Ryan as even an option. As I’ve hopefully shown, the skills are still pretty much intact so you might want to stray from the heard on this one.

10-team Mixed: Hard to have much faith in Zimmerman here. He’s not an option to be a top-10 first baseman, and if you’re thinking corner infielder, well, even though I like the skills I don’t think it’s obvious that he’s one of the top-10 non starting 1B/3B that you should turn to. He’s a late reserve round selection.

12-team Mixed: Probably best taken as a reserve round selection here as well. Ideally, he should be your backup first sacker. That way you aren’t counting on him and when the inevitable injury strikes it’s not likely to disrupt your starting lineup. Has the power, and ability to drive in runs, that makes him rosterable.

15-team Mixed: Depends how you put your team together, but I could see many squads turning to Ryan as their corner infield option in this format. As you’ve read a bazillion times, you likely will still need a backup meaning a third first baseman or better yet a second third baseman to cover your butt even if Zimmerman still has the goods to be successful – for however long he’s on the field.

NL-Only: Cost. In this format you have to commit to Zimmerman starting for you when you draft him. That makes him a very risky proposition. Even if the skills are still there if he’s only playing 120 games, or less as he has the past two seasons, how are you going to be able to fill those remaining outings? Hard to find options to backfill in a league that’s this deep. Add Zimmerman, but remain cautious in the bidding.

To see where Zimmerman ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).