2016 MLB Player Profile: Michael Taylor

Michael Taylor nearly went 15/15 last season and his reward is a spot on the Nationals bench thanks to the signing of Ben Revere. The question is what do we do with Taylor who owns intriguing skills when we have little clarity in regards to his playing time.

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

THE NUMBERS

Pre-2015 he was highly ranked by the various services: Baseball America (32^nd), Baseball Prospectus (57^th) and MLB.com (42^nd).

MINOR LEAGUE WORK

For his career in the minors, some 2,189 plate appearances over six years, Taylor has hit .263 with a .337 OBP and .429 SLG. Those numbers are not reflective of a player who is going to be a star in the big leagues.

Taylor also struck out 551 times in 529 games. That stinks too.

But, how could you not be interested in that power/speed combo? In 2013 he stole 51 bases and in 2014, in a mere 110 games, went 23/37. That’s a full season pace that would have seen him potentially push 30/50. Crazy good.

BIG LEAGUE PERFORMANCE

Taylor has just one full year of work over his two big league seasons.

Taylor has hit .227 through 554 plate appearances. Given that he barely hit .260 during his time in the minors it’s hardly a shock to see him struggling in the bigs. Taylor owns a 22.2 percent line drive rate and .313 BABIP, solid numbers. So why the down in the dumps batting average? A couple of reasons.

First off, his swinging strike rate is a horrible 16.0 percent. He misses a ton when he swings. Second, his contract rate is 66 percent (AB-K/AB). That is a terrible number given the league average of 78 percent. Third, his K-rate is 31 percent which has led to 175 strikeouts in just 511 at-bats. Fourth, he rarely walks with just 38 on his ledger leading to a 0.22 BB/K ratio that is two-thirds the league average. He doesn’t make contact, doesn’t walk and strikes out a ton. He’s “earned” the batting average he’s posted to this point.

As a minor leaguer Taylor posted a 31.2 percent fly ball rate and a 12.3 percent HR/FB ratio. As a National he’s posted a fly ball rate of 31.2 percent and a HR/FB ratio of 14.9 percent. Pretty clear who he is. Taylor is a guy who is likely to underperform in the fly ball column – the league average is about 34 percent – while posting a solid HR/FB ratio (the league average is 10 percent). It’s a total game that says about 15-20 homers over the course of a full season, and lookie here, he has 16 homers over a full season of at-bats.

As or the upper end stolen base success he displayed in the minors, Taylor has brought some of it with him. Through 155 games he’s swiped 16 bases in 21 attempts (76.1 success rate). He’s lost less than a percentage point from his minor league success rate of 76.8 percent but he’s also failed to run at near the pace. This isn’t surprising. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see him swipe 20 bags with full-time work.

Finally, Taylor hasn’t been very good against either handed pitcher posting similarly poor numbers against both.

vs lefties: .245/.300/.391

vs. righties: .222/.277/.349

Seeing him be even worse against righties is a big-time concern since, duh, there are more righties than lefties on the bump.

PLAYING TIME

I keep getting the question – will Taylor take playing time away from Ben Revere? Not how I see it. As I pointed out his Revere’s Player Profile, he’s a vastly underrated fantasy talent. He’s also pretty much the same guy in his career versus lefties (.304/.335/.353) and righties (.291/.326/.347). He doesn’t need any platoon stuff. Revere will be the center fielder and Bryce Harper will play right, daily. The real issue is can Jayson Werth stay healthy. The soon to be 37 year old appeared in just 88 games last season and in three of four years he’s failed to appear in 130 contests. He’s the guy to keep a close eye on with Taylor. The Nationals will find a spot here and there for Taylor, but unless someone goes down he’s still their fourth outfielder. 

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

Taylor is the Nationals 4^th outfielder as of this writing. That makes him a player who is hard to draft in mixed leagues. At the same time, if Werth/Revere/Harper were to go down with an injury, Taylor would be that week’s hottest waiver-wire pick up. A nice blend of power and speed, Taylor could easily repeat the success he showed last season but there is little in his line to suggest a monumental leap would occur, even with playing time.

10-team Mixed: Can’t recommend rostering him here given that he doesn’t profile as someone who will get more than 300 plate appearances.

12-team Mixed: As a reserve round add, maybe. Like I just wrote, it’s a move that is proactive, and not one that is likely to help you now. If you have a league that sets your lineup once and then lets it play out of the week, you certainly shouldn’t waste a spot on Taylor since his workload figures to be erratic.

15-team Mixed: We’re in an area where you could risk that reserve round selection on Taylor. Holes in his game no doubt, but there just aren’t that many guys who are legit 15/15 players with the talent to go 20/20. There’s also flameout potential though which is why he’s nothing more than a late round grab.

NL-Only: Taylor is a nice target here. He’s not going to cost big bucks or an early round selection, but if things break right for him a potentially big fantasy season could be had (check out last year). Don’t reach, don’t overbid, but if he’s there as a 4/5 outfielder – let ‘er rip.

To see where Taylor ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).