2016 MLB Player Profile: Kole Calhoun

Kole Calhoun was supposed to break out. He hasn’t. He’s looking like he’s one of those players that settles in, never excites, but rarely disappoints either. A lefty swinger who doesn’t turn 29 year of age until after the season is complete, Calhoun appears in line for another successful fantasy season in 2016 as he pushes for a big raise next season (he will make $3.4 million this season but he has three more years of arbitration ahead of him).

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

THE NUMBERS

*Average is per 162 games played.

AVERAGE

Let’s start with the obvious – the sample size.

Calhoun has only two seasons with 500 plate appearances. We should be careful not to draw a definitive line in the sand here, though at 28 years of age it’s also rather unlikely that his game will take a massive leap forward. I would suggest that nearly 1,500 plate appearances is enough to be nearly certain, but there’s always a chance…

Calhoun owns a career mark of .264 in the batting average category that is barely better than the league average.

His career BABIP mark is .307. The mark has been extremely consistent the last three years resting between .304 and .313 the last three seasons. That’s basically a league average run.

Calhoun does have an elevated line drive rate the past three seasons for a guy barely cresting .300 in the BABIP category. Each season of his career Calhoun has posted a line drive rate of at least 22.8 percent. The last three seasons, just like in BABIP, he’s been extremely consistent with marks of 22.8, 23.8 and 22.8 percent. You would think his BABIP would be a bit higher given those rates, but we’ve got three years of an extremely high level of consistency in both categories.

Calhoun strikes out a good deal of the time. Last season he struck out a rather alarming 164 times pushing his career K-rate up to 21.4 percent. Of greater concern was the significant uptick in his swinging strike rate which went from between 8.3 to 9.4 percent in his first three campaigns up to 12.8 percent last season. As a result his contact rate fell from 80 percent all the way down to 74 percent in 2015. That doesn’t speak to a guy ready to increase his batting average.

Let’s look at the splits.

Calhoun has hit .243 against lefties and .272 against righties in his career.

Calhoun has hit .248 during the day and .269 at night in his career.

Calhoun has hit .268 at home and .260 on the road in his career.

Calhoun has hit .276 before the All-Star game and .255 after it in his career.

You have your best chance of Calhoun producing a hit is when he is facing a righty, at night, at home and before the All-Star game.

HOME RUNS

Calhoun has hit eight, 17 and 26 homers the last three seasons. All of those efforts include disparate at-bat totals though so let’s normalize his production. Here are his totals the last three season for his homer per at-bat rate.

2013: 1 HR per 24.4 at-bats
2014: 1 HR per 29.0 at-bats
2015: 1 HR per 24.2 at-bats

It might look like Calhoun took a huge leap last season in the homer category because of the overall number, but it’s pretty clear that when we break down his efforts on a per at-bat basis things remained relatively stable.

For his career Calhoun owns a 34.3 percent fly ball rate, smack dab on the league average. The last three seasons the numbers have been 36.1, 32.5 and 35.4 percent. Three years of being the same guy.

Luckily for Calhoun, despite a league average fly ball rate he does a better than average job of converting fly balls into homers. Much better actually. The league average HR/FB ratio is about 10 percent. For his career Calhoun owns a 14.4 percent mark. The past three seasons the mark has been 14.0, 13.4 and 15.7 percent. Again, the same guy year after year. Last season’s mark of 15.7 percent is likely the best one can expect of Calhoun. Maybe a bit higher, but not much.

Calhoun has hit a homer every 24.6 at-bats versus righties in his career.
Calhoun has hit a homer every 32.5 at-bats versus lefties in his career.

Calhoun hits a homer every 23.0 at-bats at home in his career.
Calhoun hits a homer every 30.3 at-bats on the road in his career.

A repeat of last year’s 26 homers is possible. It’s likely the top end though with it being slightly more likely that his homer total will be a bit lower this season.

RUNS BATTED IN

A lot of his outlook here depends on where he hits in the order.

167 times Calhoun has hit leadoff.

90 times Calhoun has hit second.

The only other spot in which he has more than 18 starts is 4^th where he’s hit 36 times.

Note that Calhoun has appeared at least seven times at every one of the nine spots in the batting order.

Seems likely that Calhoun will hit near the top again, especially after the club announced that Mike Trout will hit third. Obviously batting one or two helps Calhoun’s run scoring, more on that in a moment, but it hampers his runs batting in mark, though to be fair he has driven in 87 runs batting leadoffs in 167 games, a strong mark given that position in the order.

Calhoun is also better with runners in scoring position (.279/.342/.452) than with the bases empty (.247/.303/.425) over his career.

RUNS SCORED

With an average of 88 runs scored per 162 games, Calhoun has been a solid run producer despite the fact that he has a mere .319 OBP which is only five points better than the league average since 2012. Hitting at the top of the order is great news for Calhoun, with all the thumpers behind him in the order in Anaheim, but it’s hard to picture a scenario where he can score more frequently than his established rate if he isn’t getting on base at a higher rate.

Calhoun doesn’t produce hits at a high rate. He also strikes out a good deal. Never walks much either with a 7.2 percent walk rate and less than 50 walks in each of his two full seasons.

STEALS

Calhoun stole 20 bases in 2011 at High-A ball while blasting 22 homers. Yep, 20/20 over 133 games. He then swiped 13 bases in 2012, 12 in 2013, five in 2014 and four in 2015. Clearly his steal total has decreased every season. Think of it. After stealing 20 bases in 2011 he’s run a total of 18 times in 365 big league games over the last four seasons. He’s just not running. 

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

10-team Mixed: He’s a bottom level 4^th outfielder at best in this format. He’s not sexy or flashy so you’ll likely have the chance to take him in the middle rounds. With no appreciable upside in batting average or steals, he’s kinda just a guy in this format.

12-team Mixed: Still want to take him as an outfielder four, though many will likely move him up to third spot status. Current ADP number from the NFBC (as of this writing) have Calhoun coming off the board as a top-35 outfielder with an ADP of around 115. That’s about the right price, though I do see a bunch of guys currently going off the board later than that who I would prefer to have on my roster over Calhoun.

15-team Mixed: The deeper the league the less those warts matter. Calhoun slots in as an outfielder three here. You will need a couple of average guys early, and a steals guy somewhere else, in your outfield since that’s a spot where you often find those talents. Those categories – average and steals – are skills that Calhoun just doesn’t seem to possess.

AL-Only: Calhoun is that stable, low upside, second outfielder that you don’t have to reach for but that produce with little concern of failure. Piling up the games, at-bats and counting category numbers should be your goal in league specific setups. Calhoun fits that mold perfectly.

To see where Calhoun ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).