2016 MLB Draft Guide: Walk and Strikeout Rates Matter

Every year I write about walk and strikeout rates. Six days a week on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87), I speak about the importance of walk and strikeout rates. I get the feeling that I’m often the white noise in the background when I talk about those two measures. Why do I harp on something that doesn’t seem overly important at first glance? So glad you asked.

LEAGUE RATES

Before getting to the meat of this piece let’s throw down the gauntlet of baseline numbers that matter. Here are the league average numbers from 2015.

HITTERS

K% - strikeouts / plate appearances

BB% - walks / plate appearances

Here is a table from the Fangraphs website to help you understand what we’re going to be discussing.

BB/K ratio – 0.39

PITCHERS

K/9 – 7.76

BB/9 – 2.92

K/BB – 2.66

There will be more on all of these numbers in Hitting & Pitching Targets.

THE RELEVANT DATA

*Note: due to the scope of this piece we will be focusing only on hitters, more specifically those that struggle with the strikeout and the walk and what that does to their batting average.

BB/K RATIO

So why does any of this matter? Only points leagues care about walks and strikeouts right? True, but that is missing the broader picture. The fact is that guys that don’t walk and strike out a lot are nearly always dangerous options in the batting average category. We obviously count that in fantasy. Guys that don’t walk and strike out a lot don’t get on base as much as we would like. That obviously limits a guy’s chance to score runs. Additionally, players who have a poor approach at the dish are more susceptible to cold streaks. That’s all there and well and good, but let’s get to some hard data, shall we?

Batters in 2015 (minimum 502 plate appearances): 141 total

There were 28 men who had a BB/K ratio of 0.30 or less.

One hit .300 – Dee Gordon (.333)

Three hit .290 – Odubel Herrera (.297), Yoenis Cespedes (.291), Jose Abreu (.290)

One hit .280 – Starling Marte (.287)

One hit .270 – Mitch Moreland (.278)

Of the 28 men that had a BB/K ratio under 0.30 only six hit .270.

Batters in 2014 (minimum 502 plate appearances): 141 total

There were 25 men who had a BB/K ratio of 0.30 or less.

Two hit .300 – Josh Harrison (.316), Ben Revere (.306)

One hit .290 – Starling Marte (.291)

Seven hit .280 – Aramis Ramirez (.289), Dee Gordon (.289), Matt Adams (.288), Torii Hunter (.286), Alcides Escobar (.285), Adam Jones (.281), Alex Rios (.280),

None hit .270

Of the 25 men that had a BB/K ratio under 0.30 only 10 hit .270. It should be noted that the last two seasons only two men appeared on both the 2014 and the 2015 list: Gordon and Marte.

Batters in 2013 (minimum 502 plate appearances): 141 total

There were 19 men who had a BB/K ratio of 0.30 or less.

Two hit .300 – Chris Johnson (.321), Torii Hunter (.304)

Three hit .290 – Howie Kendrick (.297), Jean Segura (.294), Marlon Byrd (.291)

Four hit .280 – Adam Jones (.285), Manny Machado (.283), Starling Marte (.280), Ian Desmond (.280)

One hit .270 – A.J. Pierzynski (.272)

Of the men that had a BB/K ratio under 0.30 only hit .270.

SUMMATION

What should be clear is that it’s difficult to hit even .270 if you have a below average BB/ratio. It should also be obvious that you have a better chance of doing so if you are fast as your wheels can help you beat out enough grounders to keep your average in the positive.

*ONLY ONE MAN, WITH A BB/K MARK AT OR UNDER 0.30 HAS HIT AT LEAST .280 EACH OF THE LAST THREE SEASONS – STARLING MARTE.

The ability to control the strike zone is one of the main factors that contribute to his batting average output. As the brief survey above also shows, it’s extremely difficult to continually be a below average producer in the BB/K column and hit even .280.

THE LAST THREE YEARS

From 2013-15 (minimum 1,000 plate appearances)

K% - strikeouts / plate appearances

There were 27 men with a K-rate of at least 25 percent. Of those 27 men:

None hit .300

None hit .290

One hit .280 – J.D. Martinez (.286)

One hit .270 – Giancarlo Stanton (.270)

Two hit .260 – Marlon Byrd (.268), Justin Upton (.262)

Two hit .254 – Ian Desmond (.256), Josh Hamilton (.255)

That’s six men out of 27 who hit .254, the big league average the past three seasons.

If you strike out a ton producing even a big league average number in the batting average category is very difficult.

BB% - walks / plate appearances

There were 28 men who had a BB-rate of 5.0 or less. Of those 28 men:

Three hit .300 – Jose Altuve (.313), Ben Revere (.306), Dee Gordon (.306)

One hit .290 – Josh Harrison (.298)

Four hit .280 – Scooter Gennett (.287), Starling Marte (.286), Chris Johnson (.284), Nolan Arenado (.281)

Eight hit .270 – Adam Jones (.279), Wilin Rosario (.278), Torii Hunter (.278), A.J. Pierzynski (.276), Brandon Phillips (.274), Erick Aybar (.273), Alex Rios (.273), Salvador Perez (.270)

Six hit .260 – Jean Segura (.267), Yan Gomes (.267), Starlin Castro (.265), Omar Infante (.263), Juan Lagares (.261), Adeiny Hechavarria (.260)

22 of 28 hit .260. Yippee

CONCLUSION

This article doesn’t have the scope or size to take a look at the complete picture (I didn’t touch on the folks that did walk or those that limited the strikeout in great detail). Hopefully you intuitively understand the fact that a guy that walks a lot is going to get on base a ton and score a bunch of runs, even if his batting average isn’t smoking. You understand that guys that get on base help their team to score runs and to win games. It’s just common sense (I hope).

Guys that strike out and don’t walk aren’t my favorite options.

Guys that don’t take a walk frustrate me.

Can you have success if you strike out too much or if you don’t walk? Absolutely. Can you if you do both? You can but it’s very difficult.

Target guys that put the ball in play while at the same time aren’t afraid to work deep into counts to work free passes from the pitcher. Those are the guys you should be targeting on draft day.