How do you construct the ideal pitching staff in fantasy baseball? You should take into account a player’s health or lack thereof. You should consider how old the hurler is and how much mileage he has on his arm. You should consider the mechanics he possesses when he takes the bump. You have to consider role as well – is there a role of prominence ahead or are we simply hoping the skills will force his manager to use him in high leverage situations? Those are all valid starting points when breaking down the men who throw the ball for a living.
However, what do you do for the next step? Of course, we have to talk about the performance of pitchers if we’re trying to build a unit of skilled performers to help us win in the coming season to that end, I’ve put together a series of numbers to use as the baseline for our review of the 2015 pitching season. Which pitchers had success last season? What numbers should you be targeting when you’re putting that staff together? Explore shall we.
THE STRIKEOUT
Starters: At least a K/9 of 6.75
Relievers: At least a K/9 of 7.75
2015 Starters Average: 7.4 per nine
2015 Relievers Average: 8.4 per nine
2015 Major League average: 7.76 per nine
The strikeout is a sign of a pitcher’s ability to dominate hitters. It's also one of the five main categories in 5x5 fantasy leagues. The fewer balls that are put in play, the less likely a batter is to get on base, I’m a genius. Hence the power of the strikeout. Note that in most instances I'm still rather unlikely to roster a starter with a K/9 mark under 7.00 or a reliever with a mark under 8.00.
THE WALK
Starters: A BB/9 mark below 3.00
Relievers: A BB/9 mark below 2.90
2015 Starters Average: 2.72 per nine
2015 Relievers Average: 3.29 per nine
2015 Major League average: 2.92 per nine
I have no time for hurlers who can't seem to locate their pitches and neither should you. Free passes lead to runs and you want no part of that. When a pitcher cannot locate his pitches all manner of problems result.
K/BB SUCCESS
Starters: A K/BB mark above 2.40
Relievers: A K/BB mark above 2.65
2015 Starters Average: 2.73
2015 Relievers Average: 2.56
2015 Major League average: 2.66
Some big power arms post huge strikeout marks but they just cannot throw strikes (I’m looking straight at you Trevor Bauer). You have to be very careful with power arms that cannot throw strikes which is why utilizing K/BB ratio is important.
GROUND BALL / FLY BALL RATIOS
Starters: A GB/FB mark better than 1.25
Relievers: A GB/FB mark better than 1.50
2015 Major League average: 1.35
If a reliever gives up two hits, a single up the middle and a chopper over the third baseman's head, you likely won't get too nervous. However, if he gives up two hits and they are a homer and a double off the wall, that's going to lead to a lot of runners crossing home plate. A starter can overcome a run here and there with scoreless innings before and after the runs scoring, whereas relievers obviously don't have that luxury, so the more ground balls they can generate the better.
PITCHERS TO TARGET
Remember, the numbers listed above are baseline numbers. You should be aiming higher, at least at the top of your pitching staff, then the numbers we’ve been noting, but it’s not always feasible to roster a staff with three 200-inning arms that strike out eight batters per nine while walking 2.25 per nine is it? Given that obvious fact, I’ve devised a simple list of numbers that you can use to filter out the riff-raff on the bump.
Starters: 7.00 K/9 or better, 3.00 BB/9 or lower, 2.65 K/BB or better (minimum 162 IP)
There were 37 men who hit the above baseline marks in 2015 (listed by innings pitched).
INNINGS PITCHED IP SO/9 BB/9 SO/9
1 Clayton Kershaw 232.2 11.64 1.62 11.64
2 Dallas Keuchel 232 8.38 1.98 8.38
3 Jake Arrieta 229 9.28 1.89 9.28
4 Max Scherzer 228.2 10.86 1.34 10.86
5 Zack Greinke 222.2 8.08 1.62 8.08
6 Corey Kluber 222 9.93 1.82 9.93
7 David Price 220.1 9.19 1.92 9.19
8 Madison Bumgarner 218.1 9.65 1.61 9.65
9 John Lackey 218 7.22 2.19 7.22
10 Cole Hamels 212.1 9.11 2.63 9.11
T-11 Chris Archer 212 10.70 2.80 10.70
T-11 Johnny Cueto 212 7.47 1.95 7.47
13 Chris Sale 208.2 11.82 1.81 11.82
T-14 Gerrit Cole 208 8.74 1.90 8.74
T-14 Sonny Gray 208 7.31 2.55 7.31
16 Jose Quintana 206.1 7.72 1.92 7.72
17 Jon Lester 205 9.09 2.06 9.09
18 Collin McHugh 203.2 7.56 2.34 7.56
T-19 Felix Hernandez 201.2 8.52 2.59 8.52
T-19 Jordan Zimmermann 201.2 7.32 1.74 7.32
21 Wei-Yin Chen 191.1 7.20 1.93 7.20
22 Jacob deGrom 191 9.66 1.79 9.66
23 Matt Harvey 189.1 8.94 1.76 8.94
24 Danny Salazar 185 9.49 2.58 9.49
25 Anthony DeSclafani 184.2 7.36 2.68 7.36
26 Carlos Carrasco 183.2 10.58 2.11 10.58
27 Scott Kazmir 183 7.62 2.90 7.62
28 Michael Wacha 181.1 7.59 2.88 7.59
29 Kyle Hendricks 180 8.35 2.15 8.35
30 J.A. Happ 172 7.90 2.35 7.90
31 Rick Porcello 172 7.80 1.99 7.80
32 Jason Hammel 170.2 9.07 2.11 9.07
33 Taijuan Walker 169.2 8.33 2.12 8.33
34 Jake Odorizzi 169.1 7.97 2.44 7.97
35 Ian Kennedy 168.1 9.30 2.78 9.30
36 CC Sabathia 167.1 7.37 2.69 7.37
37 A.J. Burnett 164 7.85 2.69 7.85
Next level with a little more depth, cause who wants just an average arm, right?
Starters: 7.00 K/9 or better, 3.00 BB/9 or lower, 2.65 K/BB or better (minimum 162 IP) plus 1.25 or better GB/FB. The list ends up shrinking considerably when we add in the batted ball rate. Only 22 men qualify for this exclusive list.
7.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 2.65 K/BB, 1.25 GB/FB | ||
3.14 - Keuchel | 1.52 - Hamels | |
2.47 - Arrieta | 1.46 - Greinke | |
2.21 - Burnett | 1.43 - Wacha | |
2.09 - Hernandez | 1.41 - Sabathia | |
1.91 - Hendricks | 1.40 - Porcello | |
1.77 - Kershaw | 1.38 - Lackey | |
1.72 - Carrasco | 1.36 - Archer | |
1.72 - Gray | 1.34 - DeSclafani | |
1.67 - Lester | 1.31 - McHugh | |
1.62 – Cole | 1.28 - deGrom | |
1.58 - Quintana | 1.27 - Harvey |
Remember – strikeouts, no walks, ground balls. Repeat. Strikeouts, no walks, ground balls. Repeat…
Let's move on to bullpen arms.
Relievers: 8.00 K/9 or better, 3.00 BB/9 or lower, 2.75 K/BB or better (minimum 40 innings pitched)
There were 51 qualifiers (listed by innings pitched).
INNINGS PITCHED IP SO/9 BB/9 SO/9 |
1 Jeurys Familia 78 9.92 2.19 9.92 |
2 Joe Blanton 76 9.36 1.89 9.36 |
3 Sam Dyson 75.1 8.48 2.51 8.48 |
4 Shawn Tolleson 72.1 9.46 2.12 9.46 |
5 Will Harris 71 8.62 2.79 8.62 |
6 Hector Rondon 70 8.87 1.93 8.87 |
7 Carson Smith 70 11.83 2.83 11.83 |
8 Roberto Osuna 69.2 9.69 2.07 9.69 |
9 Zach McAllister 69 10.96 3.00 10.96 |
10 Jeremy Jeffress 68 8.87 2.91 8.87 |
11 Joakim Soria 67.2 8.51 2.53 8.51 |
12 Wade Davis 67.1 10.43 2.67 10.43 |
13 Zach Britton 65.2 10.83 1.92 10.83 |
14 Darren O'Day 65.1 11.30 1.93 11.30 |
15 Liam Hendriks 64.2 9.88 1.53 9.88 |
16 Fernando Salas 63.2 10.46 1.70 10.46 |
17 Ryan Madson 63.1 8.24 1.99 8.24 |
18 David Robertson 63.1 12.22 1.85 12.22 |
19 Huston Street 62.1 8.23 2.89 8.23 |
20 Andrew Miller 61.2 14.59 2.92 14.59 |
21 Luke Gregerson 61 8.70 1.48 8.70 |
22 Justin Wilson 61 9.74 2.95 9.74 |
23 Jumbo Diaz 60.1 10.44 2.69 10.44 |
24 Keone Kela 60.1 10.14 2.69 10.14 |
25 Tyler Lyons 60 9.00 2.25 9.00 |
26 Evan Scribner 60 9.60 0.60 9.60 |
27 Junichi Tazawa 58.2 8.59 1.99 8.59 |
28 Sean Gilmartin 57.1 8.48 2.83 8.48 |
29 Sergio Romo 57.1 11.15 1.57 11.15 |
30 Glen Perkins 57 8.53 1.58 8.53 |
31 Francisco Rodriguez 57 9.79 1.74 9.79 |
32 Yimi Garcia 56.2 10.80 1.59 10.80 |
33 Mark Lowe 55 9.98 1.96 9.98 |
34 Drew Storen 55 10.96 2.62 10.96 |
35 Pat Neshek 54.2 8.40 1.98 8.40 |
36 Brett Cecil 54.1 11.60 2.15 11.60 |
37 Tony Sipp 54.1 10.27 2.48 10.27 |
38 Hansel Robles 54 10.17 3.00 10.17 |
39 Luis Avilan 53.1 8.27 2.53 8.27 |
40 Kenley Jansen 52.1 13.76 1.38 13.76 |
41 Shawn Kelley 51.1 11.05 2.63 11.05 |
42 Hunter Strickland 51.1 8.77 1.75 8.77 |
43 Pedro Baez 51 10.59 1.94 10.59 |
44 Danny Farquhar 51 8.47 3.00 8.47 |
45 Luke Hochevar 50.2 8.70 2.84 8.70 |
46 Chad Qualls 49.1 8.39 1.64 8.39 |
47 Felipe Rivero 48.1 8.01 2.05 8.01 |
48 Xavier Cedeno 46 9.20 2.74 9.20 |
49 Aaron Loup 42.1 9.78 1.49 9.78 |
50 Hector Neris 40.1 9.15 2.23 9.15 |
51 Koji Uehara 40.1 10.49 2.01 10.49 |
Relievers: 8.00 K/9 or better, 3.00 BB/9 or lower, 2.50 K/BB or better (minimum 40 games pitched) plus 1.50 or better GB/FB (in some cases, these are the cheap late-round adds that can make a huge difference for you in league specific setups).
Add in some grounders, and let's see what we are left with 18 men.
GB/FB |
8.33 - Britton |
4.77 - Dyson |
3.55 - Smith |
3.24 - Jeffress |
2.70 - Familia |
2.61 - Gregerson |
2.43 - Qualls |
2.38 - Loup |
2.06 - Cedeno |
1.92 - Rondon |
1.76 - Kela |
1.76 - Cecil |
1.74 - Madson |
1.72 - Harris |
1.55 - Blanton |
1.55 - Rodriguez |
1.53 - Avilan |
1.52 - Wilson |
PITCHER STRAND RATES
The big league average for strand rates, more commonly called Left On Base Percentage, is roughly 70 percent. When a pitcher is substantially below that number in one year there is a reasonable expectation the number, and the pitcher’s performance, will rebound in the following year. Conversely, when a pitcher greatly exceeds that level, he's more apt to see his production decrease in the following campaign. Note that certain pitchers, because of their tremendous skills or lack thereof, may repeat their 2015 efforts even if the number is high (this measure is kind of like BABIP in that certain players can establish a higher than average rate and stay at that level).
Four men were over 80 percent, a number that is virtually impossible to repeat (minimum 162 innings pitched).
86.5 – Clayton Kershaw
82.6 – John Lackey
80.5 – Wei-Yin Chen
80.0 – Jake Arrieta
In 2014 there were seven men who posted a mark of 80 percent. How many repeated in 2015? One – Kershaw. Five of the other six saw major pullbacks.
Pitcher | 2014 | 2015 |
83.1 | 72.1 | |
82.5 | 73.7 | |
81.9 | 75.3 | |
81.5 | 73.2 | |
80.2 | 80.7 | |
80.2 | 72.9 |
Don’t even try to figure out Chris Young. No one has figured him out.
As for Lackey, Chen and Arrieta, let’s just say that a repeat of their ERA marks from 2015 is highly unlikely.
Here are the 11 men who threw at least 162 innings and failed to record a mark of 70 percent in 2015.
69.3 – Hiroki Kuroda
69.2 – Jose Quintana
69.0 – Colby Lewis
67.5 – A.J. Burnett
66.8 – Justin Verlander
66.6 – Matt Garza
66.5 – Travis Wood
66.3 – Kyle Gibson
65.7 – Dan Haren
65.5 – Nathan Eovaldi
62.1 – Clay Buchholz
All things being equal, all the men listed above, minus the retired Haren, has a solid chance to see their ERA improve in 2016.
When in doubt on draft day just remind yourself… strikeouts, no walks and ground balls.