As we all prep for the upcoming fantasy baseball season, unexpected injuries are something that every fantasy owner dreads and sometimes just can’t avoid. However, through this article, you might be able to point out some pitchers who are in fact more injury-prone than others. While some are coming off career-highs in innings pitched, others are continuing to throw sliders and curveballs at an unfathomable rate. Last year, 26 pitchers in Major League Baseball had to go under the knife and repair the damaged ulnar collateral ligament (see this chart ). That total has increased in each of the past three years. Yikes.
Of the 29 pitchers profiled in last year’s edition of this article, 14 spent time on the disabled list. That’s 48 percent! Brandon McCarthy and Jason Vargas needed Tommy John surgery, while Tim Hudson served two DL stints due to a shoulder strain. A.J. Burnett dealt with elbow inflammation. Alex Cobb experienced forearm tendinitis. Strained hamstrings got the best of Mike Leake and Ian Kennedy, while achy backs shelved Jake Peavy and Phil Hughes. Despite being tabbed in last year’s list, big names such as Zack Greinke, Chris Archer and David Price were able to avoid the dreaded disabled list.
This year’s article will feature players who meet the following criteria: 1) Threw more than 120 innings in 2014, and 2) Saw an increase in pitch count by at least 15 percent from 2014 to 2015. The table below consists of the pitchers who met the following criteria.
TABLE 1
This year’s article contains 23 guys and there are quite a few big name guys on that list, including Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel. Is there a lot to worry about with a guy like Kershaw? Probably not, because his pitch count increase percentage is due to a DL stint the previous year. However, it is worth noting that even the mighty Kershaw isn’t impervious to injury.
At the top of the list we see Brett Anderson, with an astronomical 309 percent increase in pitches. Keep in mind that he was on the disabled list for over three and a half months with a fractured index finger and back strain in 2014. We’ll come back to him in a bit. Jeremy Hellickson (elbow) and Michael Pineda (shoulder) both fall in that same category with Anderson. Carlos Martinez is an interesting one, however. His workload doubled last season and ended up on the disabled list with a shoulder injury in late September. His workload caught up to him last year, which is a cause of concern for the upcoming season.
Cleveland starter Carlos Carrasco saw a significant spike in his pitch count last season and landed on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation in late August. Sure, he was activated 18 days later, but it is worth noting that after a spike in workload, he found his way on the disabled list. His numbers last season were right on par with his career numbers, but it’s worth asking yourself; will he experience fatigue again in 2016? Will he land on the disabled list again with an arm or arm-related injury?
Hector Santiago logged 141.1 innings in 2014 between the majors and Triple-A, but that total jumped to 180.2 innings in 2015. What’s worrisome with Santiago is his pitch velocities. Most notably the fastball has decreased every season since entering the league. In his rookie season, his four-seam fastball on average clocked in around 93.8 miles per hour. His average last year was 90.1 miles per hour (PITCHf/x). His two-seam fastball was 92.2 miles per hour in his rookie year, but his 2015 average was nearly five miles per hour slower. A constant decline in velocity is never a good sign, especially when you are still only 28 years young like the right-hander. You don’t have to be a mathematician to be a good fantasy owner, but here is what I call the 2016 Santiago equation: 28 years young + decreasing velocity = red flag. See, math is simple.
Of the rest of the pitchers on this list, particularly the big names, Jake Arrieta and Jacob deGrom are two that catch the eye. They saw a 42.3 and 33.1 percent increase in workload, respectively, but keep in mind these two logged quite a few innings in the postseason. Arrieta fired 19.2 innings and 304 pitches, while deGrom tallied 25 innings and 420 pitches after the regular season. The 2015 NL Cy Young winner’s career high in innings pitched before last year was 156. By the end of the postseason, Arrieta logged 248.2 innings. He also admitted that he was dealing with fatigue during the playoffs. As for deGrom, he was one of multiple Mets pitchers dealing with some sort of innings limit/concern throughout the season. In 2014, deGrom threw a combined 178.2 innings, but that number jumped to 216 this past season.
By looking at pitcher’s frequencies, we might be able to identify pitchers who are even more at risk. The curveball and slider have been stated for quite some time to be the worst for elbows and shoulders. This has been preached for years and is the reason why young kids are being instructed to stay away from that pitch throughout their younger years. In the table below, you will see the pitchers who not only met the first set of criteria, but those who throw a curveball or slider more than 33 percent of the time.
TABLE 2
Collin McHugh throws a curveball or slider a whopping 62.2 percent of the time. His fastball is his second-most used pitch, behind the slider. I’m no doctor, but throwing 1,254 sliders and 762 curveballs in a single season can’t be good for someone’s arm. The young Houston right-hander was able to avoid the disabled list the past two seasons, but realistically, how long can he avoid it?
He was discussed earlier, but Anderson is a guy you have to be worried about. Unfortunately, Anderson isn’t a stranger to the disabled list. Here is a list of Anderson’s DL trips since the 2010 season: Shoulder inflammation twice in 2010, elbow soreness in 2011, elbow injury in 2012, sprained ankle in 2013, back strain and a fractured finger in 2014. Although he managed to stay healthy last season, don’t think that he is done with his old ways. Remember, history tends to repeat itself, and Anderson isn’t the kind of guy who is going to break that old adage.
Another injury prone guy to be wary of is Michael Pineda. When healthy, he is a fantasy owner’s dream, however, he tends to be a frequent flyer on the plane heading to the disabled list. Take a look at Pineda’s injury history since 2012.
2012: Rotator cuff tendinitis
2013: shoulder surgery
2014: shoulder injury
2015: forearm strain
Since 2012, Pineda has spent a whopping 407 days on the disabled list, an average of 101.75 days a season. Are his frequent injuries a product of just bad luck or the fact that he is throwing his slider over a third of the time for his major league career? He has the ability and repertoire to be extremely good in fantasy leagues, but until he clears the injury hurdles, can you really trust this guy?
Perhaps the changeup - if not done correctly - should be added to the list. Take this into consideration: In 2013, Jeremy Hellickson, Cole Hamels, Rubby De La Rosa, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jarrod Parker threw the changeup more than 20 percent of the time. All of them spent some time on the disabled the following season. Alex Cobb, Vargas and Henderson Alvarez fall into the same category of following on the disabled list the season after throwing the changeup more than 20 percent of the time. From the players who met the innings requirements that were stated earlier, three pitchers, Chris Sale, Hellickson and Danny Salazar threw their changeup more than 20 percent of the time in 2015. Is that a telltale sign that they are going to experience some sort of arm injury this upcoming season? Not entirely, but an incorrect changeup motion could lead to similar results as constant breaking balls on an elbow.
Keep in mind that the guys on these lists aren’t the ONLY ones susceptible to arm injuries. As many know, not all injuries are caused by a buildup of some sort of action, but sometimes it’s just one incorrect motion that causes a serious injury. Sometimes it’s a freak accident that shelves a guy on the disabled list. With that being said, there are a few names who didn’t fall on the list that are possibly susceptible to arm injury this season. The names are as follows: Matt Harvey, Anthony DeSclafani, Lance McCullers and Tyson Ross.
After undergoing Tommy John surgery, Harvey logged 216 innings last season. He was able to avoid the DL after returning from the surgery, but you must be stone cold if you have no reservations about a pitcher logging 216 innings the year after going under the knife. In 2013 he threw 178.1 innings, missed all of 2014 and then fired a whopping 216 innings in 2015. It’s a big jump for the New York ace and it was worth noting in this article. It wouldn’t have been as noteworthy if it weren’t for the fact that he pitched through the playoffs and added on quite a few postseason innings. Sure, he had some starts skipped near the end of the regular season, but the fact still remains that the New York Mets let their ace—well, one of the plethora they have—throw 216 innings after undergoing Tommy John surgery. As much as the Mets organization wanted to protect his arm, was allowing him to throw that much the year after Tommy John protecting his arm? Just something to think about…
Anthony DeSclafani saw his total number of innings jump from 135 to a career high of 184.2 in 2015. Nothing else stands out for him in regards to pitch type, but the innings jump could translate into a possible injury in 2015. He may have dealt with some fatigue at the end of last season, but regardless, the sheer fact of increasing innings by almost 50 could be a bit worrisome for the upcoming season.
After perusing through all the statistics and pitch frequencies, Lance McCullers is a guy who could deal with some arm issues in 2016. First and foremost, his career high in innings pitched up until this past year was 104.2. Well, in 2015, he threw a combined 164 innings, almost 60 innings more than his previous career high. The Astros are going to continue to run him out there this season, likely approaching 200 innings, but who knows if his arm is going to be able to hold up? Also, McCullers threw his curveball a whopping 36 percent of the time last season, more than any pitcher who threw at least 100 innings in 2015. If that trend is going to continue, it likely - and probably will - wreak havoc on his arm at some point.
Would it really be an article about possible arm injuries if Tyson Ross wasn’t mentioned? If his delivery isn’t enough of an issue, looking at his pitch frequencies and velocity will open your eyes even more. When Ross entered the league in 2010 with the Oakland Athletics, he threw his fastball 71.5 percent of the time and his slider 26.6 percent of the time. Well, in 2015 Ross threw his fastball 51.9 percent of the time while throwing his slider a whopping 41.6 percent of the time, the most in all of baseball. Building on that, Ross’ fastball usage has decreased every year since his inception in the league. When looking at his slider usage, that percentage has increased every year since his sophomore season. When you continue to sift through the numbers, you’ll also stumble upon the fact that Ross’ fastball velocity has decreased by at least a half mile per hour since 2013. Is that right arm finally giving way a bit? It sure looks like it.
The guys on the list are pitchers who are believed to be a bit more at-risk for a possible injury in 2016. Is it a guarantee they will suffer injury? Absolutely not, but not only were pitch counts examined, but also the pitcher’s pitch frequencies and velocities. After perusing through the aforementioned factors, this list seems to be pretty accurate in determining those pitchers who are susceptible to injury in 2016.
Have you ever found a good deal where a little something extra wasn’t added on to the main product? Well, a couple guys who didn’t meet the criteria were discussed, due to some factor jumping off the screen while sifting through the statistics from the recent baseball season. This article should help you when it comes to planning for the upcoming season and after the season, we’ll take a look back to see how accurate this year’s article was.