2016 MLB Draft Guide: Average Bases Allowed

Are all things created equal?

Example: There are two women. They are both 25 years old, brunette and 5’6”. They’re the same, right? Well, what if one woman weighs 120 lbs and has a PhD while the other is 160 lbs and dropped out of junior college? You see how the original description only gave part of the story? Let’s follow that line of thought and transition back to the world of baseball (and yes, I’m shallow and would only date Lady A from above. My mom would be so disappointed in me).

Average Bases Allowed, or ABA, is an innovative way to look at a pitcher’s effectiveness and is designed to replace WHIP (Walks + Hits / IP), though I would settle for it to be used alongside WHIP since I know change can be hard for some folks (I still have a house phone if you can believe it). What spawned the idea of ABA? My desire for a measure more precise than WHIP. An example:

Pitcher A allows one hit and one walk in two innings. Therefore his WHIP is 1.00 (two base runners in 2.0 IP).

Pitcher B allows one hit and one walk in two innings. Therefore his WHIP is 1.00 (two base runners in 2.0 IP).

According to WHIP, both pitchers have performed the same. However, does that mean they were both equally effective (or equally attractive like the above pretty lady comparison)? What if we added a bit more depth to our example by describing the type of hits that each pitcher allowed?

Pitcher A: Allowed a walk and a single in his two innings.
Pitcher B: Allowed a walk and a home run in his two innings.

It is reasonable to posit that Pitcher A had an ERA of zero. After all, he only allowed two bases in his two innings. Pitcher B’s ERA was at least 4.50. If he allowed a solo homer, one run would have scored, leading to a 4.50 ERA (one run in two innings). If Pitcher B walked a guy first and then gave up a home run to the next batter he would have allowed two runs in two innings pushing his ERA up to 9.00.

While the hurlers may have the same WHIP, the result of their performances in the real world would have been drastically different if judged by the runs they allowed. Isn’t that what really matters? How many runs a pitcher allows is paramount, is it not?

Instead of using only hits and walks as WHIP does, ABA replaces hits with total bases allowed. What type of hits were given up? We can all agree there is a difference between a single and a homer right? Why not try to utilize that information when judging a pitcher’s performance? Think of it this way -- is it more important to know how many batters were allowed to reach base or is it more important to know how many bases said batters accumulated?

Exactly.

Here is the formula for ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

Let’s take a look at a concrete example to illustrate by detailing the efforts of two Cubs hurlers.

Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel each posted a WHIP of 1.16 in 2015. If that was all we had to judge them by, we would have to say that they were similar hurlers. But let's dig a bit deeper and look at the type of hits each hurler allowed.

Hendricks: 110 singles, 36 doubles, 3 triples, 17 homers over 180 innings

Hammel: 91 singles, 37 doubles, 7 triples, 23 homers over 170.2 innings

Remember, according to WHIP both pitchers were equal with a 1.16 mark. They are not equal according to ABA.

Hendricks: 259 total bases + 43 BB over 180 IP = 1.68 ABA

Hammel: 278 total bases + 40 BB over 170.2 IP = 1.86 ABA

While, WHIP presents the illusion that they were the same pitcher, ABA takes things to the next level and shows us that Hendricks pitched more effectively than his teammate in 2015.

How do you read ABA? Like WHIP, the lower the ABA the better. But just as you would any new stat, you must read it in relation to the league average. Last season, the average WHIP was 1.29. The league average ABA of pitchers in 2015 was 1.88 (the league average was 1.79 in 2014).

Here is a key you can employ for ABA.

Below 1.55: elite level performance
1.55-1.75: All-Star level
1.75-1.90: Solid major leaguer worthy of being relied upon in fantasy
1.91-2.10: Barely holding on to a role as a weekly fantasy starter
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine for hitters

Final note: ABA loves itself some ground ball action. Here’s why: A home run is four total bases, the same total as four singles. Therefore, the guys who keep the ball in the yard are likely to finish a bit higher than you might expect. Keep in mind that the long ball can be particularly detrimental to relievers who give up a few too many in short order since they don't have enough innings to offset the short-term effect.

162 INNINGS PITCHED

The top-3… duh. They were the top-3 vote getters in the NL Cy Young vote. The AL Cy Young winner, Keuchel, was 5^th.

The Mets had two guys in the top-8. Not surprising.

Scherzer was the first man on the list with 300 total bases allowed. Part of that has to do with 228.2 innings pitched and part of that was that Scherzer allowed a big total of 27 homers.

Tyson Ross leads the top-25 with 84 walks. That’s not a good thing. Only three hurlers hit the total of 70 walks. Francisco Liriano and Shelby Miller were the others. The walks led Ross to be the man with the worst WHIP on the list at 1.31. That was worse than the league average of 1.28, by the way. Only three others had a WHIP of even 1.20: Liriano, Miller and John Lackey.

One name that really sticks out has to be Erasmo Ramirez. Not only is the name unique, but he also isn’t thought of by many to have the game. He does. After his first couple of outings last season, he was an absolute monster. He must have helped win AL-only leagues across the land.

Some guys who missed out on the top-25:

Felix Hernandez (1.71) had an eight-year high 3.53 ERA and a four-year high in WHIP (1.18).

Carlos Martinez (1.72) ended the year with a shoulder issue and while he pitched very well, his WHIP was league average at 1.29 which was a result of 3.16 walks per nine. His ABA number could go down. After all, he had an impressive 54.5-percent ground ball rate.

1.88 League Average

Julio Teheran (1.90) hit 200 innings but allowed a .253 average, a three year high. He also permitted 27 homers, a three-year high.

Jeff Samardzija (1.97) allowed a career worst 29 homers, a fourth-straight season of at least 20 allowed. He also had a .410 SLG against which is .049 points worse than his career rate.

Ian Kennedy (2.21) had the worst mark amongst qualifiers.

80-161 INNINGS PITCHED

Clay Buchholz isn’t any good. I’ve been writing about him for years. Over and over. He can be great, but his lows are just pathetic. Between you and me - don’t trust him. He’s the only man in the top-10 in ABA who had a WHIP of 1.20. He actually pitched a bit better than his WHIP suggested. I still don’t like him.

Chris Bassitt went 1-8 with a mere 6.70 K/9 mark. He only allowed five homers, though, and that helped him keep his ABA at a strong level.

Jesus Colome made 13 starts for the Rays and 30 appearances out of the pen. He, for the first time, kept the walks down at 2.54 per nine. He was also a bit fortunate with the long ball, given his 35 percent fly ball rate, and allowed just nine home runs over 109 2/3 innings.

C.J. Wilson, who didn’t perform as well as expected, had a better ABA than Masahiro Tanaka. Why? Tanaka allowed a whopping total of 25 homers in 24 starts whereas Wilson allowed just 13 thanks to that sinking fastball of his.

1.88 League Average

Carlos Rodon (1.91) allowed 11 homers over 139 1/3 innings. Not a huge mark, but part of the issue. The biggest one for the dynamic lefty is the 4.59 walks per nine. He simply needs to throw more strikes. He does that, he takes off.

Michael Pineda (1.91) walked a total of 21 batters in 27 starts. He also allowed a big time total of 21 homers, as well as 37 doubles, leading to a .428 SLG against.

Kevin Gausman (1.96) allowed 17 homers over 112.1 innings despite a mere 38-percent fly ball rate. Blame the elevated 13.4 HR/FB ratio. He only walked 29 batters on the year.

Anibal Sanchez (2.08) was swatted for 29 homers over 157 innings. That’s abysmal work of the highest order. Amazingly, Sanchez permitted a total of just 25 homers over his previous three seasons (429 innings).

For the second year in a row, Phil Hughes (2.13) walked a mere 16 batters. Pretty remarkable really. However, after allowing 16 home runs in 2014 he allowed 29 in 2015 despite throwing 54 1/3 fewer innings. Astute analysis follows -- That’s awful.

40-79 INNINGS PITCHED

Wade Davis has been the best reliever in baseball the last two seasons.

Andrew Miller and Tony Watson -- two lefties, two dominating arms.

Brad Ziegler throws funny, but that 72.8 percent ground ball rate is sick, in the best possible way. I barely knew that was even possible.

Did you see that Kenley Jansen walked just eight batters last season? He’s only one of a handful of relievers in baseball in the conversation of “the best.”

Two of the top-16 were Astros in Will Harris and Luke Gregerson. Might be part of the reason the Astros were so strong last season.

David Robertson (1.44) walked a mere 13 batters. He allowed seven homers though, to fall just off the top-25 list. Robertson’s mark was the same as Koji Uehara and Ken Giles. Seems like a good number to be a part of.

Craig Kimbrel got his 39 saves, and has a shot at that number again in Boston, but his ABA of 1.48 was lower than you would think, though it was the same as the mark posted by Cody Allen.

Jose Fernandez was at 1.53. That’s high for this list, but if he threw 15.1 more innings it would have been the fourth best mark in the 80-161 range. No worries here, other than concerns about how many innings the Marlins will let him throw in 2016.

Some closer marks: Trevor Rosenthal (1.54), Huston Street (1.64), Santiago Casilla (1.76), Glen Perkins (1.82), Greg Holland (1.86) and Brad Boxberger (1.90).