2016 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Willson Contreras

Freddie Freeman hit for the cycle Wednesday night. Adam Jones has been having a huge June. Jayson Werth has been reborn lately in Washington. CHECK OUT THE VIDEO.Willson Contreras is a 24 year old backstop of the Cubs. He stands 6’1” and weighs in at about 180 lbs. Before last season he was mostly talked about in terms of potential, but with a breakout season at Double-A his immanent call up to the big leagues was looking more and more like reality in 2016. Contreras then went out and crushed balls all over the yard at Triple-A this season forcing the Cubs into a corner – do they call up one of the better hitting prospects in baseball even with competent big league pitching or do they give his talent a shot to shine? They’ve made their choice as Contreras is coming to the big leagues. Who is Contreras and what should your expectations be? That’s the central question we will try to address with this piece.

THE NUMBERS

• DOSL: Dominican Summer League

Coming into the 2016 season Contreras was ranked as the 67^th best prospect in the game according to Baseball America, 57^th with Baseball Prospectus and 50^th at MLB.com.

THE SKILLS

Contreras entered last season with a mere .689 OPS, a number that simply didn’t hint at the potential in his bat. Contreras went out and lead the Southern League in batting average (.333) and extra base hits (46) as his offensive game went to an entirely new level. He also showed improved power and improved his pitch discipline a bit as well.

Contreras credits the improvement in his game to spending time in the offseason picking the brains of Avisail Garcia, Yangervis Solarte, Wilson Ramos and Hector Gimenez. He kept hearing about the need for laser focus on the task at hand. Practically speaking, that was honing his approach heading into at-bats. Whereas he would just do the old ‘see ball, hit ball’ thing, he entered last season with a plan. “Every at-bat I have a plan. With two strikes, I just try to put the ball in play and that’s what’s been working for me.” The change was noticed by manager Mark Johnson of the Solar Sox. “He’s finally found a really good routine—his pre-game routine, his batting practice, and his approach—he’s bought into really having a set routine . . . a really consistent routine that helps him out in a lot of areas.” Contreras also admitted that the move from third base to catching took a toll on him mentally and physically. He’s found a rhythm with it now and believes he’s ready to catch full-time with no distraction. “I love it and I’ve got to get focused on the game.”

Contreras basically stopped giving away at-bats last season. He stopped chasing pitches and allowed his natural hand-eye coordination to lead his swing path to the ball. He’s also seemingly added some strength that has started to allow him to hit the ball deep on occasion, though he is still more of a gap hitter at this point of his development. He possesses good bat speed as well, but again, that hasn’t led to much in terms of power. Recall from above that per 150 minor league games that Contreras is only averaging 11 homers. He’s simply not yet developed that part of his game. Until he does he profiles as more of a Francisco Cervelli / Nick Hundley type than those silly Buster Posey comps you will see floating around on the interwebs.
 
Contreras leaves a 20-game hitting streak behind him at Triple-A during which time he was batting .383 with six homers. Despite that run of power he simply doesn’t profile as anything other than a 15 homer bat at the moment, though the emerging power is certainly nice to see.

PLAYING TIME

A former third baseman, Contreras is now a full-time catcher. He could see some time at third base but the last time I checked the Cubs already have a pretty darn solid option there already in Kris Bryant. The Cubs Minor League Player of the year last season, Willson will join the Cubs Friday for their series against the Pirates. While most talk about his bat Contreras has thrown out 31 percent of the base stealers in Iowa this season, a much better rate than the Cubs have been receiving at the big league level as runners have swiped 51 bases this season, the second most in the National League. Maybe that will help get Contreras some work behind the dish? Maybe.

Tim Federowicz will lose his roster spot to Contreras but that still leaves the Cubs with three catchers on the roster in Contreras, David Ross and Miguel Montero. How will the playing time be divvied out? All the reports I’ve seen are suggesting that Contreras will be the third catcher for the Cubs. Note that Federowicz has only 26 at-bats this season filling that role previously. Contreras will play more than that, has to, but will the Cubs bench/release Ross or Montero? Seems extremely unlikely that will happen. Ross has hit .237 but with four homers and 20 RBI over 93 at-bats. Montero is struggling with a .210 batting average, but he does have a solid .333 OBP and he has been one of the more consistent, non-elite, hitting catchers the last seven seasons.

There’s no path to full-time work for Contreras at the moment. None. As talented as Contreras is there is just no way to envision him playing daily, especially with all the responsibilites a catcher has at the big league level. That's the biggest issue with Contreras. It's not the bat, we have a good feeling that part of his game will result in a positive outcome, but will he be in the lineup enough for it to matter in mixed leagues? That's a totally open ended question. Heck, he might even be sent back down in short order after getting a taste of the big league game. 

Freddie Freeman hit for the cycle Wednesday night. Adam Jones has been having a huge June. Jayson Werth has been reborn lately in Washington. CHECK OUT THE VIDEO.

CONCLUSION

10-team mixed: I know Contreras has a potentially elite bat, but with so many questions about his playing time I simply can’t see why anyone should be rushing to waivers to add him. If you start two catchers and you want to add him as your third, go for it. If only start one backstop, I wouldn’t bother.

12-team mixed: Does he have the skills to be a top-25 catcher the rest of the way? Yes. Will Contreras play enough to earn that ranking the ROTW? Totally uncertain. That makes Contreras a bench add in this format unless you are desperate at your second catching spot.

15-team mixed: In leagues like this one Tyler Flowers or Kurt Suzuki might be all you can turn to as your second catcher. If that is the case then take a shot on Contreras. Even if he doesn’t play enough to become a star this season he figures to hit well enough that you won’t rue the day you let go your current flunky.

NL-only: Contreras is an immediate add, and in a big way, if he’s available in an NL only league. Spend big. Second catchers that can hit are huge in this format.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).