2016 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Chris Bassitt

MINOR LEAGUE NUMBERS
 

Solid work indeed, but that walk rate was pretty high and his 0.5 HR/9 rate was very low.

MAJOR LEAGUE NUMBERS

THE SKILLS

How often is it that a guy who went 1-8 in a season is a hot commodity the next year? Guess that’s what happens when folks really only focus on two weeks.

Look, I get it. We all see a small sample size of success and we want to be the first to jump on the bandwagon. But should we make sure that the wagon has a strong axel, or good bones, as it was before we just hope aboard? What do I mean? You see Bassitt with a 2.79 ERA through three starts and get excited. But did you note that he’s striking out 6.05 per nine? Or how about the sky-high walk rate per nine of 4.19 per nine? Those are terrible numbers leading to a 1.44 K/BB ratio that screams bad things. Further, looking at those overall skills it’s very reasonable to understand that his ERA is artificially low through three starts. Or at least it should be. SIERA (4.79) and xFIP (4.65) certainly hint that Bassitt’s current ERA simply hasn’t been earned. Regardless, we’re looking at just three starts, so let’s pull back a bit and look at the larger sample size of his career work with the Athletics.

We’re only talking 135 innings with Bassitt covering 27 outings and 21 starts during his young career. Admittedly, this too isn’t a large enough sample size, but we work with what we’ve got.

Bassitt has a 6.53 K/9 mark. That’s exactly a full batter below the league average since 2014.

Bassitt has a 3.47 BB/9 mark. That’s more than half a batter above the league average since 2014 (2.82).

Bassitt has a 1.88 K/BB ratio. The league average since 2014 is 2.67.

Bassitt has a 8.53 hit per nine mark. The league average since 2014 is 8.55.

Bassitt has a 1.33 WHIP. The league mark since 2014 is 1.26.

Are you seeing anything other than a league average, at best, arm here?

I’m particularly concerned with the fact that his walk rate in the minors was 3.7 per nine and that he’s virtually matched that rate in the big leagues. Given his overall game, and the lack of punchout upside, he can’t afford to walk batters at the rate he has to this point and expect to keep his ERA from being elevated.

A positive for Bassitt is his ground ball rate. Last season the mark was 44.5 percent and for his career the rate is 44.8 percent. That has led to a better than average 1.33 GB/FB ratio (the league average is about 1.10). It’s not great, but it’s something.

I noted earlier how Bassitt posted a 0.5 HR/9 mark in the minors. The mark is also 0.5 percent in the big leagues. Given that he isn’t an extreme ground baller it’s hard to envision that mark not rising, even while pitching in Oakland in a fair pitcher’s park.

It’s early, we’re only talking 135 innings, but to this point Bassitt hasn’t been much to see against righties allowing them to hit .272 with a .337 OBP and .377 SLG. He’s not allowed the big fly, three homers in 243 plate appearances, and that has helped to keep the slugging percentage down. Still, the average and OBP aren’t overly heartening.

Then there is the workload. You know me and how important I think that innings are. Here are the innings marks he posted per season.

2011: 35.2 innings

2012: 91 innings

2013: 159 innings

2014: 86 innings

2015: 155 innings

He could certainly throw 180-innings this season but he’s obviously never thrown 160-innings in a season before.

Finally, there is role. It’s assumed by many that Bassitt will maintain a starting spot with the Athletics, but it is possible that Kendall Graveman could remain in the rotation at the expense of Bassitt when Henderson Alvarez is ready to return from shoulder woes in about a month. As I read it there are three men battling for two spots here which should cause you at least some mild concern or perhaps just a bit of pause.

CONCLUSION

Bassitt has the look of another in a long line of solid, yet slightly boring, fantasy options that the Athletics seem to turn out on a yearly basis. I see little in the way of strikeout upside, and at the same time there are a lot of walks floating around. Not exactly an encouraging set of skills if you ask me. There’s also that pesky lack of the big fly that has me concerned as well. I’m thinking AL-only option for Bassitt, or a mixed league streamer. Be careful not to over-evaluate a solid ERA… there’s more to pitching than just that mark.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).