2016 Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report Update

2016 Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report: Updated August 3

UPDATE:

So now that the non-waiver trade deadline has passed and the dust has settled, let’s take a look at some bullpen situations that have changed in the last 24 hours:

Boston Red Sox

While the Red Sox picked up Fernando Abad from the Twins, the lefty is not going to factor into the closing job at all now that Craig Kimbrel has returned from the DL. Not that he would have anyway as Abad is going to be used as a lefty set-up man and will sit behind the likes of Brad Ziegler, Junichi Tazawa and, when he returns from the disabled list, Koji Uehara. Abad should be good for holds leagues, but for saves on Boston, Kimbrel is the man.

Houston Astros

It seems unlikely that any of you actually stashed Ken Giles all this time, but if you did, well…your time has finally come. Will Harris had a four-run hiccup back in early July and then proceeded to allow a run in three of his next six outings, including his last two in which he was charged with the blown save in each. Giles, on the other hand, finally found his groove and has been absolutely outstanding over the last two months. In that span, he’s posted a 1.27 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and a 35:2 K:BB over 21.1 innings. Giles has always been considered the closer-of-the-future ever since the Astros acquired him from the Phillies. Hell, ever since he was on the Phillies, he was expected to be one of the top closers in the game. Figure the leash will be relatively long for Giles in his new role, but with Harris in the pen and Luke Gregerson working his way back from injury, he isn’t exactly locked in on a permanent basis.

Los Angeles Angels

With Huston Street landing on the disabled list again and Joe Smith shipped off to the Cubs, Cam Bedrosian looks like he’ll slot in as the Angels new closer. The 24-year old right-hander hasn’t allowed a run since May 31, picked up his first save of the season Tuesday and has an impressive 51:11 K:BB over 40 innings this season. Street is expected back in about two weeks so this is just a temporary gig, but given Street’s injury history and age, nothing is set in stone. Fernando Salas and J.C. Ramirez will be the primary righty set-up men while Jose Alvarez will handle the lefty work.

Milwaukee Brewers

We knew the fire sale was coming and there was no way guys like Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith were going to stay with the Brewers. With both now gone, the pecking order in the bullpen has made a dramatic shift. Tyler Thornburg, who picked up his first save as the official closer and third of the season, slots into the ninth while Corey Knebel and Blaine Boyer move up into the seventh and eighth innings as set-up men. Currently, there is no lefty in this bullpen, but the team is hoping to get either (or both) Chris Capuano and Sean Nolin back from the DL over the next couple of weeks. Knebel should be the handcuff to Thornburg for now, but considering the Brewers are likely to also be active at the waiver trade deadline, things could change a bit.

Seattle Mariners

The trade deadline had nothing to do with it, but there’s a changing of the ninth-inning guard here as Edwin Diaz has officially supplanted Steve Cishek as the Mariners’ closer. Cishek hit a rough patch in early July and then gave up four runs in his last two appearances (1.2 innings) to be charged with a blown save in one game and the loss in the other. Meanwhile, Diaz, a 22-year old flamethrower, hasn’t allowed a run in his last 10 appearances and has a RIDICULOUS 20:2 K:BB over 9.1 innings in that span. If some of you recall, I was touting Diaz back in early June when he was first called up and jumped on him in a number of leagues. He was already panning out as a ratio-stabilizer and strikeout supplement, so now his value jumps up even higher. As for Cishek, if you don’t play in a league with holds, he can be dropped, and even that’s a stretch as we could be eventually looking at Drew Storen taking over the primary right-handed set-up work if he can work out the kinks in the Emerald City.

Texas Rangers

There is no change in the Rangers closer situation as Sam Dyson retains his job thanks to 22 saves, a 2.42 ERA and 35 strikeouts over 48.1 innings this season. You can also kick in 10 holds and note just two blown saves on the year as well. But with the addition of Jeffress, the pecking order changes a bit and if you’re looking for holds, Jeffress and Jake Diekman are the likely guys to own. Keone Kela loses a smidgen of value, but he should also find his way into the holds mix a little bit depending on the match-ups. Also note that Jeffress is the handcuff to Dyson here and the likely heir-apparent should Dyson ever melt down.Wow. Just wow. With the trade deadline practically upon us, there has been a ridiculous amount of bullpen movement over the past week. A ridiculous amount. And we still have almost two full days to go for the non-waiver trade deadline, let alone the waiver deadline which comes in another month. While it’s difficult to imagine even more significant movement, we cannot ignore the possibility of even more bullpen upheavals. Here’s the latest as of 1pm ET on Sunday, July 31, but should we see any more bullpen movement before the trade deadline, immediate updates will be done.

Here's how the Bullpen Report looked when this week's version was first published:

Closers and Saves

Arizona Diamondbacks

Well you didn’t think the Diamondbacks were done after the Brad Ziegler trade, did you? They didn’t have a whole lot that the rest of MLB found enticing, but interim closer Tyler Clippard was obviously good enough bait to garner a few nibbles. They settled on a deal with the Yankees and while some may have thought Daniel Hudson was finally getting his chance, manager Chip Hale turned around and named Jake Barrett as his new ninth inning man. The 25-year old right-hander has a fierce 95 mph fastball and uses an 86 mph slider as a nice out-pitch. He’s thrown 38.2 innings this season and has a 2.79 ERA with a 9.08 K/9. He’s been victimized by the long ball a little too much and has a 3.03 BB/9, but has the confidence of his manager which, given the state of the rest of the pen, is all he needs.

Chicago Cubs

Last week’s column came out right before the Cubs traded for Aroldis Chapman so we didn’t get a real chance to analyze it. Of course, there’s really not much in the way of analysis here, is there? Chapman immediately slotted in as the team’s closer while Hector Rondon was bumped back into a set-up role. Yes, Chapman blew his first save opportunity when he landed on the North Side, but we all know that doesn’t mean a thing. He’ll be just as dominant as ever and is a no-brainer. As for the rest of the pen, Rondon should now be considered the top guy for holds (he has three in the past week) while Pedro Strop loses a little bit of fantasy value.

Cleveland Indians

As expected the Yankees wised up, accepted the fact that they should be sellers on the trade market this year and unloaded Andrew Miller for what has been perceived as a king’s ransom. The Indians may have overpaid in the eyes of some, but let’s face it, Miller is one of the most dominant lefties in the game right now and had it not been for Aroldis Chapman’s presence, Miller would have been the Yankees closer the entire time. He’s been slotted into the Tribe’s closer role immediately while Cody Allen has been bumped down into a set-up role. If you were an Allen owner and your league doesn’t count holds, you should be able to dump him, though there may be a very remote chance he gets a save opportunity here or there should manager Terry Francona want to play a lefty/righty match-up. It’s a long shot, but not completely out of the realm of possibility.

Kansas City Royals

Believe it or not, the Royals were actually looking to shop Wade Davis, but now that the 30-year old righty has landed on the DL with a flexor strain in his pitching elbow, his stock is way down and the Royals just might be stuck with him the rest of the way. It sounds bad to say “saddled” like that with respect to what had been one of the strongest arms in the game, but considering the defending champs aren’t looking at a playoff run, they could have done some work rebuilding the farm. Manager Ned Yost said the MRI on Davis’ elbow revealed only the strain and no structural damage, so they’re hoping to have him back in two weeks, but that won’t necessarily repair the damage done on the trade market. Look for the Royals to continue shopping him until the waiver trade deadline, so Joakim Soria, who is expected to handle the closing work in the meantime, could retain some strong value even beyond the time Davis is out. Kelvin Herrera could get a potential look here and there, but he’s probably going to be more of a holds guy still.

Milwaukee Brewers

This should be an interesting situation to watch Monday as the Texas Rangers have shown tremendous interest in closer Jeremy Jeffress. Of course, Jonathan Lucroy is their primary target, but adding Jeffress could do great things for the Texas bullpen. Jeffress locked down his 27^th save of the season Sunday and now has a 2.22 ERA with a 35:11 K:BB over 44.2 innings this year. It seems unlikely that he would supplant Sam Dyson in Texas, though, so be careful if/when he does get dealt. Should he, look for Will Smith and Tyler Thornburg to see the saves work moving forward. Smith, who was actually the closer heading into the spring before he got hurt and has four holds this past week, seems like the more likely choice, but Thornburg, who has looked outstanding with his 12.45 K/9 this year and is right-handed, could slot in to leave the Brewers with a shut-down lefty in the seventh and eighth innings.

New York Yankees

Um, Dellin Betances, man. Who else? It’s amazing to think that a team could trade both Chapman and Miller and still own one of the best closers in the game. Obscene, really. If you own Betances in a keeper league, you may proceed to the bathroom and have your way with yourself. As for the rest of the bullpen, see below.

Pittsburgh Pirates

While the Pirates are just four games out of the wild card, their trade of Mark Melancon sure makes it look like they’re giving up on the season. Sort of. Their return for the 31-year old closer still brought them some decent bullpen help in Felipe Rivero so don’t count them out just yet. As for their bullpen, lefty set-up man Tony Watson, who is fourth in the majors with 23 holds, has been designated as the team’s new ninth-inning man while Neftali Feliz and Arquimedes Caminero each move up a rung on the ladder. Watson’s strikeout rate isn’t tremendous (7.92 K/9), but he’s got solid low-90s heat and strong command of his secondary offerings, a mid-80s slider and a real nice changeup he likes to use as his out-pitch sometimes. Should he falter, Feliz is likely the next in line so keep a close watch.

Washington Nationals

The acquisition of Melancon here makes a big change in the landscape of the Nationals’ bullpen as the newly-acquired closer will immediately be moved into the ninth inning for Washington. Incumbent Jonathan Papelbon has allowed seven runs over his last three appearances (one inning in total) and is sitting on a 4.41 ERA over 32.2 innings, so his removal wasn’t exactly a surprise. Melancon has had his own issues during this season as well, but nowhere near the issues Papelbon has seen, so look for him to have a nice long leash. There’s also a very good chance the Nationals deal Papelbon away as they feel very comfortable with Shawn Kelley as their primary set-up man. Holds league owners take heed as Kelley should be a must-own for you.

Relievers & Holds

Atlanta Braves

It’s tough to look to the Braves for holds as grabbing the lead isn’t always their strong suit. However, when they do, they love turning to Mauricio Cabrera who has a 2.87 ERA with a 13:5 K:BB over 15.2 innings this year. He hasn’t allowed a run in any of his last five appearances and has three holds and a win in his last four. With Arodys Vizcaino on the DL and Jim Johnson working the ninth, Cabrera should continue to see the primary set-up work. Hell, even if Vizcaino was back and Johnson was back in his set-up role, the club would still rely on Cabrera. He’s a potential closer-of-the-future should the Braves start unloading their relievers, so keep an eye on him, for sure.

Baltimore Orioles

After an absence dating back to June 1, Darren O’Day is back in his usual set-up role and is looking as sharp as ever. He hasn’t accrued any holds yet, but he’s now thrown 3.1 scoreless frames with a 5:1 K:BB and will start picking up holds as the season progresses. Brad Brach did an outstanding job in O’Day’s absence, so expect to see him in the holds mix as well.

Colorado Rockies

With Chad Qualls and Jason Motte sitting on the DL, former closer and owner of a rebuilt arm, Adam Ottavino, now looks like a fantastic option for holds. The right-hander hasn’t put up the strikeout numbers he did prior to Tommy John surgery, but hey…it’s only been 8.1 innings. His arm was electric before the injury and he’s got the ability to be a strong, lights-out type guy if you’re in need of set-up help. There’s no telling what happens when the Qualls and/or Motte return, but if Ottavino is still throwing well, manager Walt Weiss is likely to leave him right where he is.

New York Yankees

As of right now, Dellin Betances is the major league leader in holds, but that’s going to change by the end of this week. Now the closer for the Yankees, Betances holds will stay at 27 while the set-up work falls to newly (re-)acquired Tyler Clippard, Chad Green and former starter Luis Severino. Clippard is definitely the guy to own given his experience, but Green and Severino should be watched closely. Green tends to throw multiple innings for the Bombers but could work in more of a seventh-inning role should the Yankees have more of a need. That could depend on how well Severino pitches though. So far, he’s got four scoreless innings with a 5:2 K:BB since being recalled and if that trend continues, he could find himself as the primary set-up guy for the duration of the season.

Seattle Mariners

The pecking order in the Mariners’ bullpen really hasn’t changed as Edwin Diaz and Vidal Nuno remain the primary set-up me. Nick Vincent is still on the DL, but could get back into the holds mix once he’s healthy, but the guy I’m actually watching is newly-acquired Drew Storen. In my opinion, Storen got the shaft from the Nationals and really hasn’t been the same since they unnecessarily supplanted him as closer with the acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon. He struggled in Toronto as he continued to search for his niche and now that he’s with Seattle, he’s got a fresh start. It may take him some time to build up the trust, but if he can turn manager Scott Servais’ head, he just might find himself moving up the ladder quickly. He’s not someone to acquire just yet, but if you’ve got a watch-list, add him to it.

Tampa Bay Rays

Brad Boxberger has finally returned from the disabled list, but manager Kevin Cash isn’t making the same mistake twice. Earlier this season, the first time Boxberger came back from an injury, Cash gave him back the closer’s role, a job Alex Colome had excelled in, only to see the 28-year old right-hander get hurt again. This time, Boxberger returns and find himself in a set-up role. If you’re in a league that scores holds, Boxberger still has value, so if you’re in need, he’s likely available. Xavier Cedeno gets dropped in the pecking order slightly, but after racking up three holds over the last seven days, he is fully expected to remain in the mix.

Texas Rangers

After a disastrous July, former closer and current set-up man Shawn Tolleson was optioned to Triple-A which has now opened the door wider for Keone Kela to start grabbing more holds moving forward. Lefty Jake Diekman is still the primary set-up man and a guy upon whom you can rely on for holds, but Kela has now added three to his total this past week and should be a strong option, especially if he can maintain that 13.80 K/9 he’s got this year.

Toronto Blue Jays

A quick swap of relievers between the Jays and the Mariners landed Toronto veteran set-up man Joaquin Benoit in exchange for Drew Storen and Benoit remains a strong option for holds. Jason Grilli should continue to be the primary set-up man, at least until the implosion occurs, but Benoit should be able to rack up some decent holds numbers as he controls the seventh inning for the Jays. Should Grilli eventually falter, Benoit would be the next up in the eighth, but that really won’t change his fantasy value very much.

Strength of Bullpen

**keep in mind that we now have several bullpens in flux, so while these bullpens are considered the top 10 right now, the order could be dramatically altered within a week's time.

Closer Grid