Danny Santana is being over drafted. I have no problem making that statement. What else should I say? The NFBC's ADP data suggests that Santana is going off the board with the 135th selection while Howard Bender's Mock Draft Army data shows a similar selection spot though with a bit more reluctance (184). I'll try to show why anyone taking Santana at that point is seeing something that I'm just not.

THE MINORS

2009: Appeared in 44 games batting .265 with a .720 OPS over 185 plate appearances. He hit three homers, drove in 25 runners, scored 30 times and stole 12 bases in 13 attempts at Rookie ball. 

2010: Appeared in the Rookie league and Single-A playing 70 games. He hit .252 with a .287 OBP and .657 OPS over 288 plate appearances. 

2011: Appeared in 104 games at Single-A ball batting .247 with a .298 OBP and .671 OPS. He had seven homers, 41 RBIs, 55 runs scored and 24 steals. He was caught 15 times.

2012: Saw action in 121 games in High-A ball. Stole 17 bases and was caught 11 times. He hit .286 with a 739 OPS as he hit a career best eight homers, drove in 60 runs and scored 70 times.

2013: In 131 games at Double-A he batted .297 with a .719 OPS. Santana hit two homers, drove in 45 runs, scored 66 times and stole 30 bases. Also struck out 94 times.

2014: Twenty-seven games at High-A and Triple-A led to a .241 average, seven RBIs and 15 runs scored. Stole five bases as well. 

TOTALS: .273/.317/.391 with 25 homers, 232 RBIs, 310 runs and 118 steals (53 caught stealing) in 548 games

THE MAJORS

2014: As a rookie he had a tremendous season batting .319 with 20 steals over 101 games played. Also posted a .353 OBP, hit seven homers, drove in 40 runs and scored 70 times for the Twins. 

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THE SKILLS

Danny Santana is overrated. Let me count the ways.

(1) Look at his minor league slash line: .273/.317/.391. That's simply league average stuff.

(2) Santana hit 25 homers in 548 minor league games. He showed no power.

(3) Santana stole 118 bases which is nice but his 69 percent success rate was horrible. That's barely at the point where he was helping his team score runs – barely, like so bad he almost hurt his team (the breakeven point is about 67 percent).

His minor league track record suggests nothing, other than speed, was being brought to the major league level. N-o-t-h-i-n-g. 

So let's look at his 2014 effort with the Twins.

He hit .319 - only .046 points above his career minor league mark.
He had a .353 OBP - only .036 points above his career minor league mark.
He had a .472 SLG - only .081 points above his career minor league mark.

So did he all of a sudden, against better competition, suddenly make a massive leap forward at 24 years of age?

Issues abound...

Let's start with the batting average. Santana will NOT hit .319 again. No chance. 

I say things all the time that are definitive/declarative, and people say whatever. This is not one of those instances. Santana will not hit .319 again - no way, no how. Here's why.

Santana had a 26.0 percent line drive rate last season. Among batters who had 400 plate appearances last season only 13 men had a better mark. If we bump that up to full-time levels - 500 plate appearances - only eight men were better. The fact is 26 percent is an elite number. E-L-I-T-E. If we look back at the 2013-14 seasons, and use 1,000 plate appearances as the baseline, do you know how many men have a 26 percent line drive rate? The answer is six. Guys just don't hit the mark season after season. By the by, Santana's line drive rate from 2011-14 in the minors was 14 percent. 

Santana had a .405 BABIP in 2014. That was the best mark in baseball among batters with 400 plate appearances. NO ONE in baseball had a BABIP of .375 in 2014 who had 500 plate appearances. Here are the yearly leaders the last five years in BABIP.

2010: Austin Jackson .396
2011: Adrian Gonzalez/Matt Kemp .380
2012: Mike Trout .383
2013: Mike Trout .376
2014: Starling Marte .373

No one in baseball has qualified for the batting title and posted a mark of .400 since... 2002 (Jose Hernandez at .404). Santana's minor league mark was .332 from 2011-14.

Santana will be fortunate to hit .280 in 2015.

Santana has no power. If he hit 10 homers in 2015 it would be mildly surprising. He only lifted 28 percent of his batted balls into the air last year (league average is 34-35 percent). That's a good thing given the skills Santana has, avoiding the fly ball, but it's not going to allow him to hit home runs. He also posted a league average 8.5 percent HR/F ratio last season.

Santana drove in 40 runners last season. Will that rate greatly increase in 2015? Likely not since he will be hitting atop the order for the Twins. He won't be a big run producing bat.

So we're down to runs and steals.

Hard to think Danny keeps the pace he posted last season. If he did, he would score 100 runs if he got 600 at-bats. Is he really a 100 run guy? Moreover, is he a .353 OBP guy? Remember, the mark was only .317 in the minors. Santana never walks - he took 19 free passes last season - and his OBP was only .034 points above his batting average last season. If he hits .280 this season, and adds .034 points to his OBP, the OBP mark would be .314 - just below the league average and nearly identical to his minor league mark. His runs scored pace is in trouble.

So we're left with the steals. Remember that Santana was terrible with a 69 percent success rate in the minors. In his first year in the big leagues he was successful 83 percent of the time (20 of 24). Can he repeat that success rate, one that he never flashed in the minors? He could steal 30 bases, but expecting that is too much, and don't think you will be getting a Jose Altuve breakout kinda thing with Santana.

 
PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS

Appeared in 34 games at shortstop and 69 games in the outfield for the Twins in 2014. That dual position eligibility is a nice boost to his value. The Twins this outfield figures to be Oswaldo Arcia, Torii Hunter and Aaron Hicks/Jordan Schafer/Santana. Danny could also play in the outfield again with Eduardo Escobar seeing time at short. If he does bat leadoff though, that's certainly a nice little feather in his cap.

CONCLUSION

Again, I'm just not seeing why there is so much love for Santana. He has no power and likely won't help at at all in the runs batted in column. There are also serious questions about his batting average, and with no ability to generate walks, his OBP and therefore runs scored pace is also in peril. Santana will steal some bases, and he qualifies at two spots (SS/OF), but it's nonsense to be counting on growth from him in 2015.

10 team lg: Not interested as anything other than a reserve play. Of course, there's no chance he will fall to the point that you will be able to draft him as such.

12 team lg: A bench option. There are simply copious amounts of players I would rather have.

15 team lg: OK, fine. Get him in your lineup if he's the last starter you take. Telling you though, just don't reach for him, or expect growth, or even a repeat, of his per at-bat levels from last season. 

AL-only: Fan of the dual position eligibility, the speed and his spot in the daily lineup. Don't over invest. He's a support player, not a potential breakout candidate.