A huge man who stands 6'4" and weighs in at about 240 pounds (reports suggest he's dropped weight this offseason), Avisail Garcia brings a power bat to the party. Garcia won't be asked to lead the team in homers - Jose Abreu and Adam LaRoche are around for that - but if Avisail does what his skills suggest is possible, the White Sox might have a trio of terror for opposing pitchers in 2015.
THE MINORS
2008: The Venezuelan born slugger appeared in 63 games as a 17 year old in the Venezuelan Summer league for the Tigers after being signed as a free agent. He hit .298 with a .791 OPS. Went deep seven times with 34 RBIs.
2009: Appeared in 84 games at Low and High-A ball. Hit just .264 with a .610 OPS as he struggled to walk just eight times against 72 punchouts in his first season of North American baseball. .
2010: In 125 games at Single-A, Garcia hit .281 with four homers and 63 RBIs. Had a mere .669 OPS over 524 plate appearances. Also swiped 20 bases displaying his speed.
2011: Played 129 games at High-A hitting .264 with a .686 OPS. He hit 11 homers with 56 RBIs and 53 runs scored. Stole 14 bases for good measure.
2012: Hit 14 homers with 58 RBIs and 78 runs scored. He managed to steal a career best 23 bases as well over the 122 games at High-A and Double-A ball. Hit .299 with a .789 OPS.
2013: Appeared in 47 games at High-A and Triple-A. Garcia hit .379 with a .991 OPS as he lit it up. Hit seven homers and stole six bases as he also scored 38 times while knocking in 36 runners.
2014: Saw action in 13 games hitting .340 with a homer and three RBIs.
TOTALS: .291/.326/.410 with 45 homers, 281 RBIs, 306 runs scored and 78 steals over 583 games.
THE MAJORS
2012: Saw action in 23 games for the Tigers. He hit .319 over 47 at-bats with no homers and three runs batted in.
2013: Traded to the White Sox as part of a three team deal. The Detroit Tigers sent Brayan Villarreal to the Boston Red Sox. The Chicago White Sox sent Jake Peavy to the Boston Red Sox. The Boston Red Sox sent Jose Iglesias to the Detroit Tigers. The Boston Red Sox sent Francellis Montas (minors), Cleuluis Rondon (minors) and Jeffrey Wendelken (minors) to the Chicago White Sox. Appeared in 72 games on the year batting .283 with seven homers, 31 RBIs and 31 runs scored.
2014: Saw action in 46 games hitting seven homers with 29 RBIs. Hit a mere .244 and walked 14 times.
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THE SKILLS
Oh what Talent.
I kind of broke it up in the reporting above, but let's take a look at the power/speed combo that Garcia has to offer. Here are his homer and steal totals for each of his professional seasons from 2010 to 2013.
2010: 4 homers, 20 steals
2011: 11 homers, 14 steals
2012: 14 homers, 23 steals
2013: 14 homers, nine steals
Recall that this guy tips the scales at 240 lbs. The fact is that his frame belies his physical gifts. You might look at him and think Miguel Cabrera. He's way more Yasiel Puig though. You can't sit there and predict outlandish things... wait, I take that back. Many of you clearly do expect outlandish levels of production from players. I doubt that Garcia fits that mold though. He's been in the bigs for a couple of years, really hasn't done much of anything, and there's no real "push" about him in the fantasy game. There likely should be, and those of you in the "know," who read Fantasy Alarm daily, are about to find out why.
Outlandish statement #1: Garcia will go 20/20 in 2015.
Outlandish statement #2: Garcia will go 15/15 in 2015.
Outlandish statement #3: Garcia will go 20/10 in 2015.
Outlandish statement #4: Garcia will go 15/10 in 2015.
Outlandish statement #5: Garcia will go 10/10 in 2015.
I would say #1 ain't happening though I have noted that Garcia has stolen 20 bags in a season twice. Expecting 15 steals is the top end of my expectations, and unlikely to occur in 2015. That removes #2 as well. But what of statements #3, #4 and #5? Are they possible? Should be obvious at this point and state that Avisail could swipe 10 bases, so let's take a look at his power potential.
Through 463 big league at-bats Avisail has hit 14 long balls. He's accomplished that thanks to an impressive 15.7 percent HR/F mark. 'But Ray, if the mark is that high it must mean he hits a ton of grounders, right?' You got that right intrepid reader. Check out the ground ball rate that Avisail has produced in his three short big league efforts: 62.2, 56.1 and 56.2 percent. Hello Yasiel Puig (51 percent the last two seasons). When you hit more than 50 percent of your batted balls on the ground hitting even 20 homers becomes problematic (hello again Mr. Puig). The problem is, for now at least, that the grounder is just what happens when Garcia swings. From 2011-14 his minor league ground ball rate was 53 percent (his HR/F buy the way was 13.9). The fact is that his early big league work closely mirrors his minor league production. Players do often learn to elevate the ball as they age, and that means Garcia could always become one of those guys. For now though, there is scant evidence that is occurring. That means statement #3 from above is tough to envision. That leaves us with a possible outcome of #4 or #5, and both are potentially possible with full-time work. Not sexy I know, but potentially valuable. Do you know how many outfielders went 15/10 last season? The list is smaller than you think and only includes 14 men.
Last season Garcia hit just .244, a year after he hit .283. As noted above he was a .291 hitter during his minor league career. I've also just got done talking about the lack of fly balls from Avisail, and that should aid his batting average since more fly balls end up as outs than any type of batted ball. So why the big change in Garcia's average from 2013 to 2014? Pretty easy to answer that one.
2013: 18.2 percent line drive rate, .344 BABIP
2014: 15.4 percent line drive rate, .285 BABIP
For his career we're looking at a three year average of 18.1 percent and .329 as a big leaguer. His minor league work from 2011 on is even better in the BABIP column (.377). A normalization of both figures in 2015 could lead to Garcia hitting at least .272 which just so happens to be his big league batting average.
Garcia doesn't walk. As a minor leaguer he walked once every 25.1 plate appearances. As a big leaguer it's been slightly better at once every 19.1 plate appearances. In 2014 that number was 13.6. IF, caps noted, he can hold on to that 2014 mark moving forward his batting average outlook becomes even more stable, and at least he is showing some minor growth. Flip side, he has 113 punchouts in 463 big league at-bats, hardly an overwhelming number in this day of whiffs (his K-rate is 22.7 percent for his career).
Garcia, a righty bat, has long crushed lefties. As a minor leaguer he hit .324 against them while his work against righties included a .284 mark. As a big leaguer he's hit .277 against lefties and .270 against righties showing way more balance. However, the performance has been up and down signaling that we need a larger sample size as his less than 500 career at-bats as a big leaguer is the outline to the painting. We still need the color to finish up the work. Just look at these crazy splits the last two seasons.
2013
vs. lefties: .219/.256/.384
vs. righties: .310/.331/.439
2014
vs. lefties: .333/.392/.600
vs. righties: .213/.273/.346
Luckily for Garcia, it seems like he will be on the field to face both in 2015.
PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS
This is the way it seems like it will play out for the White Sox in 2015. Jose Abreu will play first base with Adam LaRoche at DH. Melky Cabrera will play left field with Adan Eaton manning centerfield. With the fact that Dayan Viciedo is no longer part of the plan, it would appear that the Sox are ready to give Garcia full-time work in right field. Playing time is always key with any player, and Garcia certainly has the chance to pick up 500+ at-bats if he can take advantage of the opportunity the Sox are likely to give him. Where will he hit in the order? He could hit fifth with Abreu-LaRoche-Garcia offering a potentially powerful 3-4-5 that would also go right-left-right to thwart bullpen moves late in the game. Garcia could hit lower though depending on the lineup (potential much lower depending on what the coaches decide), so pay attention to how things are shaping up in Spring Training.
CONCLUSION
Garcia isn't likely to hit .300. He's not a great bet to hit 20+ homers. But, playing daily in a potentially powerful lineup. and possessing an intriguing blend of speed, size and potential, I wouldn't fault anyone for making him a reserve round add or an early season add off waivers if an injury strikes one of your outfielders. Power/speed potential like this package should intrigue everyone.
10 team lg: A cheap add as a 5/6 outfielder. There is risk about the power production, the steals aren't a lock either, and with a less than ideal approach at the dish expecting more than what we've seen to this point in the batting average category is a bit risky. That paints Garcia as a bench option at best in this format.
12 team lg: Another one of those 5/6 types in the outfield. Depending on your choice of team building, he may be of interest, he may not. Could potentially be on the waiver-wire in leagues of this size which would mean you should put him on your watchlist, especially if we get news that he's hitting 5th or 6th in the order and not lower.
15 team lg: An intriguing blend of youth, size, power and some speed, Garcia is a prime target to consider when filling out your outfield. You could take joe-schmo for his .250-18-70 outlook, or you could take a shot that Garcia puts it together and produces like a 3/4 outfielder at a reduced draft day cost (current ADP info from the NFBC has Garcia listed as the 45th outfielder being taken off the board).
AL-only: Young, with playing time, some power, some speed, a good lineup, and an offensive environment to call home. I've got no issue with Avisail being a starter in my outfield in a league of this type, and neither should you.