NFL ADP Analysis & Draft Strategy: Drafts

For the final edition of the “NFL ADP Analysis & Draft Strategy” series I decided to take a look at my drafts for this season. What better way to discuss who I think the best players are to draft than to look at the players I am drafting the most? Being drafted the most does not in any way mean that the player is my favorite player at the position but more so someone I really like at the spot in the draft you can get him. These drafts range from a variety of different sites, league sizes, league settings, and draft spots, all of which can be found in the chart below. I will break down each position and point out a few highlighted players for each. Beside each player is the amount of times I drafted him and the percentage of how often.

Quarterback

Marcus Mariota (91.63), Kirk Cousins (103.18), and Jameis Winston (108.33) are my favorite QB selections for this coming season and I have each ranked very closely. They can all be had later in the draft and in my opinion all will finish in the top-10 of the QB rankings by the end of the year. Marcus Mariota has made huge growth in his first two years in the league and now has the best weapons at his disposal that he has ever had. With Delanie Walker, DeMarco Murray, and Rishard Matthews all still on the roster and the additions of Eric Decker and rookie Corey Davis this offense should fire on all cylinders this season. Mariota will likely finish the season with 3700+ passing yards 30+ touchdowns and 3+ rushing yards, which when put together will easily have him in the top-10. Next we have Kirk Cousins who, despite finishing as a top-5 QB last season, is still not seeing any love in drafts. The Redskins offense should be strong once again with Jordan Reed, Terrelle Pryor, Jamison Crowder, and Josh Doctson. There is very little reason to believe Cousins can’t match last season’s production and even see an increase on his 25 touchdowns from a season ago. Lastly we have Jameis Winston, who has landed on the highest number of my teams drafted. Winston usually goes the latest in the drafts of the three QB’s listed which is the reason I have drafted him the highest number of times. The Bucs added DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard to the offense this offseason while retaining Mike Evans, Adam Humphries, and Cameron Brate. With all these weapons at his disposal, Winston should be able to cross the 30 touchdown plateau for the first time this season while also throwing for 4000+ passing yards for the third consecutive season. I see him finishing just inside the top-10 this year somewhere in the range of 7-to-9, which would be great value for a player being drafted in the 11-to-15 range at his position.

The last QB to analyze is Carson Wentz (185.61), who I discussed in depth in “NFL ADP Analysis & Draft Strategy: Love.” He is not in the same tier as the above players but can be had much later in the draft. Currently being drafted as the 19^th QB off the board in fantasy, I see very little reason to not believe that Wentz will finish inside the top-15 at the position, with additional upside. Wentz was not great in his rookie season last year finishing with 3782 passing yards and a TD-to-INT ratio of 16-14, but he also did not have the weapons that he does this year. The Eagles added Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith in the offseason which should of course be beneficial for Wentz. Add to that another year of experience and you have a QB who should be able to take a giant leap forward. He is a great target for 2 QB leagues or super flex formats.

Running Back

Mike Gillislee (70.80) is someone that the large majority of the fantasy industry will completely disagree with me on, but that has not waivered my opinion in any way. He is the most talented RB on the Patriots, and easily the best at punching in short yardage touchdowns. It is also likely that Gillislee will be the featured back when the Pats are leading late in games (a common thing). He has averaged 5.7 yards per carry in back-to-back seasons and should be in line for a 10+ touchdown season. 1000+ yards and 10+ touchdowns are not out of the question and at his ADP he makes for a great selection.

Ameer Abdullah (67.93), another unpopular opinion, and yes he hasn’t done much to this point in his career but he is primed for a breakout campaign. For a starting running back it surprises me to see how low he is going in drafts (a reason why he is landing on so many of my teams). It is not that I love him this year, but he should provide solid value at his ADP and has some additional upside. He goes after backup running backs that are nothing more than a handcuff and it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Abdullah runs the ball well and can also catch passes (although Theo Riddick will be the featured pass catching back).

Bilal Powell (69.75) is someone that the industry will actually agree with me on. He is easily the most talented RB in the Jets backfield, as Matt Forte is well past his prime. Some people will say “but Justin he plays for a team that will always be losing and he is a RB, they will stop rushing the football.” That only gives him upgraded value, as he will be on the field more often when the Jets are losing as the pass catching back. Last season Powell averaged 5.5 yards per carry and had 58 receptions, making him primed for a strong season in PPR formats. He may not be the starting RB on the Jets depth chart, but he will finish the season as the highest scoring RB for the Jets in fantasy.

Le’Veon Bell (2.18) is someone you will see a few shares of for me, while also not seeing any shares of David Johnson. Crazy? Debatable. Johnson is easily the safer pick as he has not missed a game in his career, but the ceiling for Bell is too high for me to ignore. I don’t play to compete, I play to win, and the higher the ceiling the better. Bell finished with more rushing yards last season than Johnson despite missing four games and would have finished with more receptions and about the same amount of receiving yards if he hadn’t missed the four games. Bell also averaged 0.7 yards more per carry last season and is simply a more talented player. Johnson got his value from 20 total touchdowns, a number that will likely drop a few this season. If both players play all 16 games, Bell will score more fantasy points.

Notes: Both times I drafted Zeke it was prior to his suspension. All four times I drafted Kareem Hunt it was after Spencer Ware’s injury.

Wide Receiver

Zay Jones (122.90) and Corey Davis (117.46) are both going outside the top-100 of drafts and both offer nice upside. While I think Corey Davis is the more talented receiver of the two, Jones is the one that I think will score more fantasy points this season. Jones should see plenty of targets in a poor Bills offense that lacks much of anything at the WR position. Davis will be fighting for targets in a very crowded Titans offense, but still has the talent to make the most of his opportunities. Both are worth selecting as late round fliers for your bench with tremendous upside.

Jordy Nelson (12.45) is a great late first/early second round selection. Last season Nelson finished just three points behind Antonio Brown for the most fantasy points at the WR position. Despite finishing last season second in fantasy points among WR and having the best QB in football throwing him passes, Nelson is now being drafted as the #6 wide receiver off the board and makes for a nice value selection. It is both a high upside and safe selection, making him a great pick.

Terrelle Pryor Sr. (26.55) is another high upside player (are you noticing a trend yet?) that makes for a nice selection on draft day. Last year in his first full season as a WR, Pryor finished with a line of 77, 1007, and 4. That is with a very messy Browns QB committee throwing him the football. He now moves over to a Redskins offense that finished with 1494 more passing yards than the Browns offense did. The Redskins also averaged 8.3 more points per game than the Browns did. Looking at the line he put up last season playing for the Browns gives a lot of hope for a monster season this year with Kirk Cousins and the Redskins.

Allen Robinson (46.03) is someone that should have a solid bounce back season this year. Yes, the QB situation is still a mess with Blake Bortles, but in Robinson’s monster 2015 season, who was the QB? Blake Bortles. He is not going to match that 2015 season of 80, 1400, and 14. However, he is not going to match last season’s line of 73, 883, and 6 either. He is likely to go above the 1000 yard mark once again this season and could see his TD count rise to around eight or nine. His ADP is falling, and he slides in drafts, making him a nice high upside selection. He was bad last season and finished as WR25, right now he is being selected as WR23. He is going to finish inside the top-20 at the position. 

Notes: All draft selections of Meredith and Edelman were of course prior to their injuries.

Tight End

Jordan Reed (54.25) is a guy I will target despite his consistent injuries. For the most part I look to avoid injury prone players, but Reed is my favorite TE and his talent is through the roof. Every time he is on the field he produces at a very high level and at a position that, for the most part, is relatively weak. He slides in a lot of drafts as fantasy owners look to avoid him, which makes it that much easier to secure a selection of him. Reed has a ridiculously good catch percentage of 76% for his career and catches a TD in nearly half of the games he plays in. He provides a nice security blanket for Kirk Cousins, who will target Reed more than any other player in the Redskins offense when he is on the field.

Eric Ebron (121.44) was someone I was drafting heavily at first but have slowed up on as of late. I still think he has a lot of upside for this season, but is far from a sure thing. Ebron has progressively improved each season and could be in line for a breakout campaign. His receptions, targets, yards, and yards per reception have improved each year and if that trend continues we could be looking at a solid line for Ebron this season. Right now if I were to project a line for him it would be 72, 806, and 4. It would be higher if Ebron was a sure thing for a full season, but given his injury history, it is not wise to expect that. At his ADP he is a low risk/high reward selection on draft day.

David Njoku (227.86) has talent and plays in a thin offense. If you want a very deep late round flier with upside at the tight end position, he is your guy. He will likely be the third option in the Browns offense this season and should have a handful of solid games. For the most he is not going to light up the fantasy world on a weekly basis, but that shouldn’t be expected with someone at ADP 200+. He finished his last season in college with a line of 43, 698, and 8. The touchdown upside is real. 

Kicker

Caleb Sturgis (227.31) lands on my team often as I normally don’t use anything before a last round pick on a kicker. He finished last season as the #4 kicker in fantasy and should be in line for another top-10 finish at the position this season. He likely won’t see the FG attempt volume from last season but should have more extra points to slightly balance it out. He may not be the most talented kicker in the world, but he gets the job done in fantasy and that is really the only thing matters when selecting your kicker in the last round of the draft.

Matt Prater (202.18) was also a top-5 finisher at the position last season and can be had at the end of drafts. The Lions offense hasn’t had any drastic changes, and it can be expected that Prater will put similar numbers to last season. He does go slightly earlier than Sturgis in drafts, which is why his numbers of times selected is a good bit lower, but he is someone that is normally there at the end. Prater gets an added boost in league that reward extra points for long FG’s as he was one of the best in the league last season at deep kicks.

Justin Tucker (158.58) is the kicker I am paying up for, if I am going to pay up for a kicker. I will start by saying this; you should not be selecting a kicker before the last round or two. Two of the three times that I picked Tucker it was in auction drafts where I had a little bit of money floating left towards the end. That being said, Tucker is incredible and easily the most talented kicker in the NFL. He can hit from just about anywhere, and if your league values long FG’s he does get a nice boost. 

D/ST

Jacksonville Jaguars (192.94) as you can see, are my D/ST of choice this season. The price tag is a second to last or last round selection, which is exactly where you want to be getting your D/ST. I mentioned in “NFL ADP Analysis & Draft Strategy: Love” how they added star DL Calais Campbell to their line, who will be both a strong talent and leader for the team. Also how youngsters Jalen Ramsey, Telvin Smith, Myles Jack, Dante Fowler, and Yannick Ngakoue all have another year under their belt and should all be improved players. The offense also plans to both run more and more effectively this season which will eat time off the clock and give the defense more rest in between defensive series. This should mean fewer points against and improved overall play. They will finish as a top-10 D/ST. 

Seattle Seahawks (158.05) are my defense of choice when I do happen to pay a steeper price tag for a D/ST. Last season they finished at a poor ranking of #10, but they should be able to bounce back this season. Last season they finished with zero interception return TD’s and just one fumble return TD. That would be very hard to repeat this year, as most teams end up with at least two or three at the worst. Given the talent on this roster it is likely they will finish with three or four. With three more return TD’s they would have been the #5 D/ST last season. Last season they were a much stronger real life D/ST than they were fantasy D/ST, that will balance out a bit this year.