Phillies vs. Mets Predictions, Picks & Odds: NL Division Game 3, 10/8
Game 3 of the National League Divisional Series kicks off with a National League East battle between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets on Wednesday night. The Phillies took down Game 2 with a comeback walk-off win to even the series at one game apiece.
Game 3 sees the Phillies send out Aaron Nola while the Mets counter with Sean Manaea. Before giving our Mets vs. Phillies predictions, let's take a look at the top storylines and pitching matchups.
Philadelphia Phillies: Need Aaron Nola to Go Deep
It was an up and down season for Nola who finished the year going 14-8 with a 3.57 ERA and 197 strikeouts over 199.1 innings.
The Phillies bullpen has been tagged over the first two games of this series and if Nola can be the workhorse innings eater for the Phillies today, limiting the damage and needing to rely less on their bullpen to come through and shut the door against this hots Mets offense then that will only increase their odds of pulling off the road victory.
New York Mets: Can the Offense Keep Coming Up Clutch?
The Mets offense continues to stay hot, jumping out to an early lead in Game 2 and taking the lead and tying the game late only to watch their bullpen lose the game in the bottom of the 9th inning.
They will have to keep their bats going here today as the Phillies send out Aaron Nola to the mound.
This lineup and Nola likewise have a long history against one another and this season saw Nola toss a complete game shutout against the Mets back in May only for the Mets to get after him for six runs over 4.1 innings in September.
Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
We’re about to break down our Phillies vs. Mets predictions, but first, here are the current Mets vs. Phillies odds, spreads, totals and betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook:
Run Line
- Mets +1.5 (-192)
- Phillies -1.5 (+160)
Money Line
- Mets: -108
- Phillies: -112
Total
- 7.0 (Over -105/Under -115)
Phillies vs. Mets Starting Pitcher & Lineup
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
Nola has had moments where he looked like an “ace” this season and others where he really struggled. The month of September saw him post a 4.91 ERA over six starts. In August he had a 2.70 ERA over five starts.
He's faced the Mets twice this season. His most recent start saw him get tagged for six runs over four innings while his first start against them he pitched a complete game shutout.
Manaea took a no decision in his lone playoff start this season, tossing five innings and allowing just two earned runs against the Brewers.
Against the Phillies this season he made three starts, allowing 10 runs on 14 hits over 16.2 innings.
His most recent start against the Phillies was strong however, as he tossed seven innings while allowing just three runs and striking out six.
Phillies vs. Mets Predictions For NL Divisional Round Game 3
For our Phillies vs. Mets predictions for Game 3 we have to look at the pitching matchup as the lead story.
Aaron Nola taking the mound against Sean Manaea.
Nola has been a bulldog for the Phillies over the course of his career and he once again put together a strong season which included a complete game shutout against the Mets earlier in the year.
I'm looking once again for Nola to have a strong performance which will lead to our Phillies vs. Mets Game 3 prediction.
Phillies vs. Mets: Phillies ML (-112 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
When it comes down to it, I'm betting on Aaron Nola and the Phillies offense getting it done here today.
While the Mets lineup is hot, we saw Zack Wheeler shut them down in Game 1. With this being the playoffs, I'm expecting Nola to up his game and hold the Mets down long enough for the Phillies offense to put up the runs needed to get the Game 3 victory.
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Player News
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Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
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Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
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Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.