Do you remember riding the merry-go-rounds when you were a kid? You’d hop on the ride, spend a few minutes going around in a circle — and up and down on the horse — all before getting back off right where you got on. This offseason, Carlos Correa has been the horse on the merry-go-round we’ve all been along for the ride. First, the All-Star shortstop opts out of the remaining two years on his Minnesota Twins contract, then signs the fourth-largest contract in MLB history with the San Francisco Giants, then fails a physical. The New York Mets, always seeking to be opportunists, sign Correa to a long deal to be, presumably, their third baseman – but oh that nagging physical. For the first time in seemingly forever, the Mets failed a player over a physical and left the deal in limbo before, you guessed it, the Minnesota Twins came back into the picture with a 6-year, $200-million deal. Dizzy yet? I sure am. The best part, though, is that our Twitter timelines will now free up for something other than Correa-related drama. What do all of these changes mean for Carlos Correa’s fantasy baseball value, where do the Mets go from here, and how does this help the Twins? Let’s find out as we continue this dizzying 2023 MLB offseason.

 

What Is Carlos Correa’s 2023 Fantasy Baseball Value?

Back in the first part of this now three-part series, it was mentioned that last year was Correa's first season out of Minute Maid Park as a home park. How did he fare with home stadium and division change? He was the same old Correa. His 22 homers last year fits very neatly into his average homers per year for every full season he’s played. His .291/.366/.467 triple slash line was arguably the best of his career to this point as well. Out of all of the landing spots he could’ve wound up in, Minnesota might be the fairest all around and the best for his overall slash line going forward. 

There’s not a ton of difference between the Twins’ lineup in 2023 as compared to 2022 so we can expect similar run-production stats from Correa. When we were talking about Correa going to the Giants his xHR stat from baseball savant was higher than his total from last year when looking at the spray chart overlayed on AT&T Park. Given that, I’m not concerned with his outlook for production for 2023. Let’s talk about the injury for just a bit. We’re talking about a player who’s topped 400 at-bats in 5-of-the-6 seasons if we exclude 2020 including back-to-back 520-plus seasons. 

The injury concern that’s backed the Giants and the Mets out of deals with him we’re concerning for the back half of the contracts they’d penned him to. That’s where the six-year pact comes in to play for Minnesota. They’ve seen him in person over the last year and don’t have as much concern for the next few seasons. 

Correa will be the Twins' starting shortstop for this deal and should hit in the middle of their order much like he did last season. That keeps his fantasy baseball value right where it was prior to all of this craziness unfolding. It doesn’t mean he won’t slide in terms of ADP as people panic over the non-public medicals that teams were concerned about, but that just means a value for us in drafts right?

 

What Do the New York Mets Do Without Carlos Correa?

Let’s face it, the Mets will be fine without Correa. It wasn’t clear exactly what he was going to add to the lineup for that much money anyway. New York has Eduardo Escobar starting at 3B right now with Luis Guillorme capable of playing there. While Escobar is certainly older than Correa, his offense isn’t that far off of what Correa has done the last two years. Escobar had 20 homers, a .240 AVG, and .430 SLG in 542 PA last year. Aside from the average, that’s a reasonable line for a lot less than they’d have paid Correa. 

They also have Brett Baty, a top prospect, who could be a factor later in the season as well. In all fairness to the Mets, it seems more than likely that they dodged the proverbial bullet by not working out a deal with him after the results of the physical were known. If the Mets do wind up needing help at the hot corner as the season goes forward, it’s not like Steve Cohen can’t make a move to get a bat they need with depth at pitcher and a few good prospects to move.

What Do the Minnesota Twins Do With Carlos Correa?

What a deal the Twins get here. Prior to last year they had signed Correa to a three-year deal for a total of $105 million with an opt out after each of the first two years. That gave him an AAV of $35 million. Now they get him back for $150 million less than the Giants had given him and more than $100 million less than what the Mets offered. He’s still getting more than $33 million a year in this deal but it’s a short term to avoid potential injury risks down the road. What does this mean for them though? 

Minnesota slots Correa back at shortstop and in the same spot in the lineup as he was last year and keep chugging along. Those of us that have Twins infield prospects like Royce Lewis, or Brooks Lee, or even Austin Martin or recent graduate Nick Gordon will need to pay attention to what they do with those players. They’ll be a bit blocked for the time being unless the Twins move Correa to 3B to open the SS spot for Lewis or Lee as Lewis can play outfield. All told this is a great move for the Twins who save some AAV and get more years for a number two bat in a lineup. 

 

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