Lost in the hyperbole of terms like "breakout", player's performances can vary by season and 2020 provides a unique challenge due to the shortened season variable. It’s difficult in some cases to expand sample sizes to parcel out future outcomes. Depending on talent, underlying indicators and opportunity may be the zig in terms of this exercise when others zag. Formulating this list accompanied some apprehension but here's 10 players who could carry over the gains from last season into 2021.
Kyle Tucker - OF, Houston Astros
2020 Statistics: 58 games, 228 plate appearances, 33 runs, nine home runs, 42 RBI, eight stolen bases; .268/.325/.512
Finally shed his prospect disappointment status with a strong 2020 campaign. Tucker reduced his swinging strike percentage while increasing his contact rate along with Z-Contact (in the strike zone) last year displaying better plate discipline metrics. He also recorded 164 batted ball events with 15 barrels (9.1 percent), an average exit velocity of 91.1 MPH and 44.5 hard hit percentage.
Diving a bit further, Tucker cut his whiff percentage by over seven points with the gains in the strike zone listed above. His blend of power with speed makes him an early round target. After spending most of last season hitting fifth, he could move up in the lineup due to the departure of George Springer which would boost Tucker's counting statistics. Presently, THE BAT X projects Tucker for 91 runs, 28 home runs, 87 RBI, 19 stolen bases and a .255/.324/.473 slash. Although the average looks a bit low, use his .267 expected batting average from last year as a reminder Tucker could hit in the low .260's as soon as this season.
Luis Robert - OF, Chicago White Sox
2020 Statistics: 56 games, 227 plate appearances, 33 runs, 11 home runs, 31 RBI, nine stolen bases; .233/.302/.436
Living up to his top prospect billing, Robert racked up counting statistics despite spending most of his season hitting seventh. His overall numbers might sit higher if not for a hand injury he suffered in August potentially causing his September batting average tailspin. There's going to be some streakiness to his game, so using Robert in head-to-head or points leagues comes with some risk.
But, Robert registered 131 batted ball events with 17 barrels (13 percent), an 87.9 MPH average exit velocity and 40.5 hard hit percent. Unlike Tucker, Robert struggled with contact striking out over 32 percent of his plate appearances with a 61.4 contact rate and a 22.1 swinging strike percentage. His 41.6 whiff percentage on Statcast confirms his swing and miss tendencies. This comes with a grain of salt for those seeking his blend of power and speed. THE BAT X forecasts Robert for 91 runs, 31 home runs, 86 RBI, 19 stolen bases and a .256/.315/.476 slash line but if the contact struggles continue, his average may suffer a bit.
Zac Gallen, SP - Arizona Diamondbacks
2020 Statistics: 3-2, 12 games started, 72 IP, 82:25 K:BB, 2.75 ERA, 3.88 SIERA, 1.11 WHIP
Following up his strong debut in 2019, Gallen made some changes to his arsenal using his cutter more while throwing less four-seam fastballs. He still deploys his curve and change-up with aplomb. While the cutter does not produce high strikeout rates, his new pitch mix produced a spike in ground ball percent to 47 and his whiff rate held stable.
There's even room for growth in his strikeout potential by using more curves (38.4 whiff rate, 45.2 strikeout percentage) and his change-up (44.1 whiff rate, 29.6 strikeout percentage). While Gallen's not ready to be an ace for his team or fantasy, as a second starter with upside, he continues his path towards one.
Cavan Biggio , 2B - Toronto Blue Jays
2020 Statistics: 59 games, 265 plate appearances, 41 runs, eight home runs, 28 RBI, eight stolen bases; .250/.375/.432
For starters, in leagues using 10 game minimums from 2020 for 2021 eligibility, Biggio adds third base and outfield to his positions for fantasy. This alone adds to his allure. With so many fantasy owners seeking stolen bases, Biggio’s a pristine 20-for-20 in stolen base attempts over his first 159 games in the majors. He's also drawn 12 walks with 24 home runs, 107 runs and only grounded into two double plays in 695 plate appearances.
Beneath his surface numbers from last year, Biggio improved his contact rate to 78.3 percent while reducing his swinging strike percentage. While he's not a Statcast hero, Biggio projects to hit second in a burgeoning baby Blue Jays lineup which added George Springer in free agency. Many overlook counting statistics like runs, so targeting a player with multiple position eligibility hitting near the top of the lineup with 20 home run and stolen base upside makes Biggio an easy player to hype.
Corbin Burnes , SP - Milwaukee Brewers
2020 Statistics: 4-1, 12 games, nine starts, 59.2 IP, 88:24 K:BB, 2.11 ERA, 3.18 SIERA, 1.02 WHIP
After teasing fantasy owners with his upside in previous seasons, things came together for Burnes in 2020. He ditched his four-seam fastball for a sinker while increasing his use of a cutter, change-up and curveball while throwing fewer sliders. This all culminated in the following results:
Burnes Sinker 2020: 33.1 percent usage, 18.4 whiff percentage, 13.5 K%, 21.7 put away percent
Burnes Cutter 2020: 31.5 percent usage, 33.1 whiff percentage, 41.9 K%. 29.5 put away percent
Burnes Slider 2020: 12.7 percent usage, 60.3 whiff percentage, 61.3 K%, 35.2 put away percent
Burnes Change-up 2020: 11.2 percent usage, 44.2 whiff percentage, 34.8 K%, 25.8 put away percent
Burnes Curveball 2020: 9.1 percent usage, 47.1 whiff percentage, 61.9 K%, 34.2 put away percent
This fueled a rise in chase contact, more weak contact and a 47.2 ground ball rate. Tempering his upside, the Brewers already announced their pitchers project to throw about 100 more innings than the previous season. Plus, how long he lasts each start may affect his win totals. Still, the tweaks in his arsenal leave room for more upside and Burnes talent broke through in the truncated season. Backfill your draft with multi-inning relievers when he gets shut down.
Luke Voit , 1B - New York Yankees
2020 Statistics: 56 games, 234 plate appearances, 41 runs, 22 home runs, 52 RBI; .277/.338/.610
Not only did Voit hit more home runs in the shortened 2020 season than in 2019, he led the majors in them. His isolated power (ISO) spiked to .333 and he owned a weighted on-base average (wOBA) rose to .393 during his strong campaign.
According to Statcast, Voit recorded 160 batted ball events with 21 barrels (13.1 percent), an 88.9 MPH average exit velocity and 40 hard hit rate. His zone swing percentage rose by two percent and his zone contact percent increased by 6.5 percentage points. Voit's swing percentage also increased but he cut his whiff rate to 27.6 percent, down by over seven percent. Plus, his batted ball profile remained stable. Expected metrics measure quality of contact, so Voit's .284 expected batting average (xBA) suggests some bad luck and his .593 expected slugging almost aligns with his actual number.
Voit's power breakout should carry over evidenced in his THE BAT X projection of 34 home runs in 617 plate appearances for 2021 with 87 runs and 89 RBI. If he hits higher than the projected .262, Voit could set new career highs across the board.
Framber Valdez , SP - Houston Astros
2020 Statistics: 5-3, 11 games, 10 games started, 70.2 IP, 76:16 K:BB, 3.57 ERA, 3.23 SIERA, 1.12 WHIP
Going against the grain of the other two pitching breakouts above, Valdez ramped up his sinker usage producing a negative three launch angle with them in 2020 helped by a gain in velocity. Another reason for his truncated season success, reducing his walk rate to 5.6 percent. Plan on some migration to the mean in this category which means his ratio statistics (ERA and WHIP) should also regress some, but his SIERA provides a glimmer of hope it's not overwhelming.
Valdez made the most of his curve last season generating a 41.9 whiff percentage, 52.6 strikeout percent and 37 put away percent with it. His spin rate with the pitch ranks in the 96th percentile among his peers. Overall, Valdez induced ground balls in over 60 percent of his batted ball data fueling his .240 xBA and .290 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA).
Since Valdez relied mainly on two pitches, his critics may be wary of a repeat performance. But, Valdez averaged 6.4 innings per outing last year at a time when relievers logged more innings than starters in the major leagues. He and his teammates on this staff may be overlooked a bit in 2021 but Valdez sets up as a nice third starter for fantasy.
Alec Bohm, 3B - Philadelphia Phillies
2020 Statistics: 44 games, 180 plate appearances, 24 runs, four home runs, 23 RBI, stolen base; .338/.400/.481
As a sweetener to his robust average from last year, Bohm's also eligible at first base in most leagues. Representing a prospect profile founded in plate discipline, Bohm also flashed some pop with 11 doubles along with his four home runs. How much of this translates in 2021 remains to be seen but Bohm hardly looked overmatched despite only 270 plate appearances in Double-A before his major league debut.
Pursuing his Statcast data, Bohm registered 126 batted ball events with 13 barrels (10.3 percent), an 90.2 MPH average exit velocity and 46.8 hard hit rate. Due to his limited sample, diving too deep into his numbers could be a mistake. Focus on his .286 xBA, .464 xSLG and .343 xwOBA while hoping he hits in the top four or five spots to maximize his counting statistics. A few pocket stolen bases would not hurt and he could swipe five-to-six with 20-plus home runs in 2021.
James Karinchak, RP - Cleveland
2020 Statistics: 1-2, 1 Save, 27 games, 27 IP, 53:16 K:BB, 2.67 ERA, 2.50 SIERA, 1.11 WHIP
Although the team does not possess a nickname right now, Karinchak appears to be the next "Wild Thing” at closer due to his on the mound persona. Tagged with the nickname "Special K” which may reference his stuff, Karinchak owned a robust 48.6 strikeout percentage and eye popping 16.9 swinging strike percentage. He held opponents to a 57.9 contact rate and a minuscule 69.7 Z-Contact percent.
According to Statcast, Karinchak allowed 40 batted ball events last year yielding one barrel (2.5 percent), a .130 xBA, .222 xwOBA and 2.22 xERA. His two high octane offerings include a four-seam fastball and curveball. Here's how each pitch fared last season:
Karinchak 4-Seam Fastball 2020: 39 whiff percentage, 42.2 K%, 29.7 put away percent
Karinchak Curveball 2020: 56.3 whiff percentage, 54 K%, 38.6 put away percent
In terms of some percentile ranks, Karinchak finished last year in the 100th percentile in strikeout percentage, the 99th percentile in whiff percent (45.5), 100th in XBA, and 98th in both xwOBA along with xERA among his peers. Brooks Baseball provides insight on his swinging strike percentage with each pitch as well: Four-seam Fastball (18.5 SwStr%) and Curveball (16.7 SwStr%).
All Karinchak needs, the chance to be the closer to cash in on his upside. One would prefer him to reduce his walk rate (14.7 percent) from last season, but this can be overlooked with 53 strikeouts in only 27 innings of work. Mercy.
Jeimer Candelario , 1B - Detroit Tigers
2020 Statistics: 52 games, 206 plate appearances, 30 runs, seven home runs, 29 RBI, one stolen base; .297/.369/.503
Post-hype breakout Candelario finally translated his on-base upside into a season of results. Accepting the smaller sample size, Candelario's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) spike projects to normalize in 2021, so migration to the mean for his batting average needs to be accounted for.
Using the Statcast data, Candelario generated 136 batted ball events with 14 barrels (10.3 percent), an 90.2 MPH average exit velocity and 47.1 hard hit rate. A major stride in his success, improving his zone swing percentage by 12 points and a 35.3 line drive rate. His expected numbers may shed light on 2021 with a .277 xBA, .469 xSLG and .340 xwOBA.
Candelario could hit 20-plus home runs and bat fourth for Detroit. He's not an ideal target for upside, but as a corner infielder who also owns third base eligibility in 2021, there's room for profit.
This concludes the sustained breakouts. Here's some names to track who may appear next year:
2021 Breakout Candidates
Joe Musgrove , SP - San Diego Padres
Victor Robles , OF - Washington Nationals
Jordan Hicks , RP - St. Louis Cardinals
Tony Gonsolin , SP - Los Angeles Dodgers
Cristian Javier, SP - Houston Astros
Tejay Antone, SP - Cincinnati Reds
Josh Naylor , OF - Cleveland
2021 Post-Hype Breakout Candidates
Dylan Carlson, OF - St. Louis Cardinals
Tyler Mahle , SP - Cincinnati Reds
Andrew Benintendi, OF - Boston Red Sox
Austin Hays , OF - Baltimore Orioles
Mitch Keller , SP - Pittsburgh Pirates
José LeClerc, RP - Texas Rangers
Scott Kingery , 2B - Philadelphia Phillies
Sam Hilliard , OF - Colorado Rockies
Breakouts come in many forms, be sure to track spring performances, where a batter projects to hit, any new offerings being mixed in by a pitcher and opportunity. Avoid the group think and do not get lost in the vernacular, identify your guys on the road to a championship.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
BrooksBaseball.net
THE BAT X courtesy of Derek Carty