When it comes to all of the available metrics, exit velocity, barrel rates and other batted ball statistics capture the eyes of many. However, one that shouldn’t go unnoticed or underestimated is sprint speed. It seems simple at first, but with the use of Baseball Savant, you can use this to gain an edge and further understand the speedsters in the league. Yes, Byron Buxton is fast, and so is Trea Turner , so it is no surprise they steal a lot of bases. It’s the same thing with average exit velocities. Aaron Judge and Franmil Reyes hit the ball hard, and they hit a ton of home runs. However, delving deeper into some of the available metrics regarding moving your feet can benefit your fantasy baseball squad in 2021.
Sprint Speed Defined (courtesy of Baseball Savant)
Sprint Speed is Statcast’s foot speed metric, defined as “feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window” on individual plays. For a player's seasonal average, the following two types of plays currently qualify for inclusion in Sprint Speed. The best of these runs, approximately two-thirds, are averaged for a player’s seasonal average.
*Runs of two bases or more on non-homers, excluding being a runner on second base when an extra base hit happens
*Home to first on “topped” or “weakly hit” balls.
Running Splits: Percentiles
Seeing how fast people run is useful, sure, but getting the view in percentiles helps simplify it for many. Of course, overall sprint speed is useful, but I love using percentiles to get a grasp on the kind of runners these players are. Here’s what I’m getting at:
| 5ft | 10ft | 15ft | 20ft | 30ft | 40ft | 50ft | 60ft | 70ft | 80ft | 90ft |
Player A | 40 | 71 | 84 | 86 | 92 | 95 | 97 | 97 | 98 | 98 | 99 |
Player B | 97 | 92 | 91 | 93 | 89 | 88 | 86 | 88 | 87 | 85 | 84 |
Player C | 68 | 71 | 76 | 72 | 68 | 66 | 64 | 59 | 59 | 54 | 48 |
- Trea Turner
- 2020: 12 SB
- Christian Yelich
- 2020: 4 SB
- Max Muncy
- 2020: 1 SB
Turner starts slow out of the gate, but makes up for it with elite speed once he gets going. Some of his caught stealing attempts could likely be attributed to the fact that he tends to need a little bit to get going.
Christian Yelich is the opposite from Turner, in that he starts out elite, and then tails off the longer he gets running.
Max Muncy , however, doesn’t run much, but he goes from above average to slightly above average in the same run.
You can also use the splits and their times to give you an idea of potential stolen base success. The average pop time for a catcher in the majors is 2.0 seconds. On average, it takes pitchers around 1.3-1.5 seconds to get the ball to the catcher. Now, there’s a lot of moving parts in this entire operation, including a good throw from the catcher, clean exchange, etc. However, you can use the splits here to anticipate who could and should have success on the basepaths.
Assume a runner takes about a 10 foot lead, meaning he’s got about 80 feet to go. You can use the player’s 80 foot split to determine the kind of success he should have on the bases. Again, this isn’t a perfect formula, because there are so many moving parts in the entire operation of stealing a base, but this gives you a good idea.
Bolts
Additionally, according to Statcast data, bolt numbers usually align with the league totals of stolen bases. Typically, that’s a pretty fair assumption. When you look at recent years, the average number of stolen bases of the top 25 players in the year in bolts has been above 20 for the season.
Year | Avg. Stolen Bases |
2015 | 21.84 |
2016 | 22.88 |
2017 | 23.16 |
2018 | 22.00 |
2019 | 20.44 |
You can leverage this during the season by watching the leaderboard here and see who is racking up bolts. If a player has a lot of bolts, he likely is already stealing a lot of bases, or perhaps he hasn’t yet. This, ladies and gentlemen, is where you can gain an edge in stolen bases. Everyone in your league will likely go into the free agency pool and sort the available players by stolen bases in the past week or two. You can do that, but add this into your research as well, because you find some hidden gems.
Of course, the only logical way to end the article is taking a look at some of the fastest guys from the 2020 season, per sprint speed in feet per second, and their ADP, courtesy of NFBC data. Of course, tread carefully here, considering not everyone below is a lock for substantial playing time to benefit your fantasy squad.
Name | Sprint Speed (ft/s) | ADP |
30.7 | 563.1 | |
30.5 | 524.7 | |
30.3 | 591.7 | |
30 | 7.4 | |
30 | 114.6 | |
29.7 | 584.1 | |
29.6 | 256.2 | |
29.6 | 464.5 | |
29.4 | 24.2 | |
29.4 | 2.6 | |
29.4 | 503.8 | |
29.3 | 265.4 | |
29.3 | 507.9 | |
29.3 | 291.4 | |
29.3 | 394.7 | |
29.2 | 1.8 | |
29.1 | 36.1 | |
29.1 | 206.9 | |
29.1 | 68.6 | |
28.9 | 12.2 | |
28.9 | 177.2 | |
28.9 | 131.5 | |
28.9 | 6.1 | |
28.9 | 511.9 | |
28.9 | 999 | |
28.8 | 58.2 | |
28.8 | 225.6 | |
28.8 | 465.6 | |
28.7 | 45.3 | |
28.7 | 290.2 | |
28.7 | 185.5 |
There’s a lot of interesting names on that list if you ask me! Sprint speed isn’t the most glamorous stat, but you can certainly leverage it for fantasy success in 2021. Keep an eye on the leaderboards throughout the year, and see the players who are racking up bolts. Also, combine it with those guys who are getting on base a lot, and you can use sprint speed as a proactive approach to garnering stolen bases for your fantasy baseball team this season!
Statistical Credits:
Baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball