With so many bullpens in fluid high leverage situations, it may be refreshing for fantasy owners to see Rafael Montero secure in the closer role for Seattle when the 2021 season starts. Acquired in a trade with Texas, Montero converted all eight save chances last year over 17.2 innings with a 19:6 K:BB, 4.08 ERA, 4.00 SIERA and 1.02 WHIP.
During his time in Texas, Montero appeared in 39 games finishing 22 of them in over 46.2 innings with 53 strikeouts against 11 walks, a 3.09 ERA and 0.986 WHIP (15th-best since the start of 2019 among relievers). Buoyed by a strong 2019 sample, these numbers provide a larger view of him as a reliever but he's a low risk add to a bullpen in need with Seattle. Montero's 28.6 percent strikeout rate and 5.9 walk percentage appeals to the front office of his new team along with giving up only two home runs against his last 72 batters faced.
According to Statcast, Montero changed his usage patterns resulting in 45 batted ball events giving up seven barrels (15.6 percent), an 88.2 MPH average exit velocity and 44.4 percent hard hit rate. As this chart illustrates, he used more four-seam fastballs and sinkers with fewer changeups last season:
Digging deeper into his data results from this change, Montero reduced his zone contact by three percent while inducing almost a 13 percent increase in chase contact. However, his whiff percentage in 2020 fell by 4.8 percentage points. He also generated fewer ground balls (40.3 percent in 2019 to 28.9 percent in 2020) trading them for line drives which rose by almost seven percentage points and luckily more pop-ups which defrayed some damage to his ratios.
If Montero can overcome his expected numbers, the key will be his changeup. In 2020, Montero owned a .240 expected batting average (xBA), .462 expected slugging (xSLG) and .317 expected weighted on-base average (39 points above his actual). His changeup produced a 55 percent ground ball rate in 2019 along with a 38 strikeout percentage and 39.4 percent whiff rate. Last year, it only generated a 33.3 ground ball percentage, 16.7 strikeout percent and 29 percent whiff rate. Montero pivoted to the sinker out of necessity it seems, so maybe he lost his grip or feel with the pitch. If Spring reports indicate his changeup bouncing back, buying into him for saves becomes less risky.
When trying to value Montero, it lies in his team giving him some leash to start out in the ninth inning with hopes his arsenal holds up through the season. Here are his projection sets entering 2021:
Recording 20 or more saves in the present baseball landscape comes with inherent value. Remember Montero's in the arbitration process and then a free agent in 2023, so Seattle could decide to trade him before the deadline if the team falls out of playoff contention. This makes Montero a terrific sell high player in leagues with trades if he starts out hot this season. Pay for the stability, profit if the changeup rebounds and keep tabs on the progress of Andrés Muñoz in the second half of the season.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
Steamerprojections.com
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.