Nick Castellanos was solid for Cincinnati in his first season, hitting 14 home runs and driving in 34. A .257 BABIP tanked his batting average to a career low .225, but he should rebound in 2021. His strikeout rate jumped considerably, which is bad, but 2020 featured a lot of anomalies for many players, not just Castellanos. He continued to make solid contact, albeit not overwhelmingly forceful, and his batted ball profile lends itself to 30+ home runs in Great American Small Park. Oops, Ball Park*.
Before we get into his batted ball profile, we have to start with the strikeout rate. His strikeout rate ballooned to 28.5 percent, and for a frame of reference, his previous career high was 25.5 percent back in 2015. He actually chased less compared to years past, so what happened? Well, he just whiffed more. His swinging strike rate was way up, and he missed more fastballs and off-speed stuff in the zone.
Furthermore, the chart below may not do it justice, so I’ll put it in a tabular fashion below the graphic, but the whiffs out of the zone are concerning. And, to top it off, fastball has increased each of the last three years.
Chase Miss Rate | |||
| Fastballs | Breaking | Offspeed |
2017 | 26.1% | 67.7% | 35.6% |
2018 | 31.3% | 74.6% | 54.2% |
2019 | 33.5% | 64.5% | 30.8% |
2020 | 42.1% | 69.4% | 45.8% |
The issues with his strikeout rate obviously hurt his batting average, but per Fangraphs and the graphic I placed above, did you see his contact rate? It was far and away a career low. It’s hard to hit for a good average when you don’t make contact. There were 11 qualified hitters last year who posted a swinging strike rate, per FanGraphs of at least 16 percent. The highest average was Franmil Reyes ’ .275 and the average of the 11 guys was .236. His contact rate will need to rebound in 2021.
It has been mentioned in other player profiles, but it takes a different entity with Castellanos. Not all hard contact is created equal, and typically we’ve talked about it in a manner where a player’s exit velocity increased compared to a recent season, but the increases were all on ground balls. For a power hitter, an increase in overall exit velocity on anything other than fly balls and line drives doesn’t do much for their power profile.
In this instance of not all hard contact being created equal, Castellanos makes hard contact at a solid rate, but his max exit velocity isn’t on the same scale. I don’t want to say warning track power, considering I think Castellanos hits 30+ home runs in 2021, but his average league rank on his average and max exit velocity do not line up.
| Avg. Exit Velo League Rank | Max Exit Velo League Rank |
2016 | 109th | 171st |
2017 | 66th | 135th |
2018 | 90th | 148th |
2019 | 145th | 133rd |
2020 | 31st | 113th |
Average | 88th | 140th |
Other than 2019, his marks have not been in line with one another. He posted a career high exit velocity and barrel rate in 2020, and a sizable jump in hard contact on fly balls helped push his HR/FB ratio (23.7% in 2020) more than nine percentage points higher than any year of his career. Castellanos has pop, but I think we can say he doesn’t have elite pop, or top-end pop. However, he has a great home park that helps him overcome this.
Lastly, he hit breaking stuff harder in 2020, but unfortunately didn’t have much to show for it. Continued success here should parlay into actual results in 2021. Ten of his 16 hits against breaking pitches went for extra bases, but the elevated whiff rate hurt him here, resulting in a .198 average. When he did make contact with breaking stuff, he was decent for the most part. Better luck in 2021 will help.
Despite lacking the top-tier, out of the stadium power, Castellanos runs into enough balls in a great home park that 2021 should be a solid statistical campaign for him. His pace from 2020 put him in the upper-30s, and 2021 will be the year he breaks the 30 home run threshold. Striking out less should with his batting average, and that Cincinnati offense is going to be lethal in 2021. Castellanos will have plenty of chances to drive in runs, and be driven in himself, all while popping 30+ home runs.
After four straight years of hitting at least .272, I’m not as worried that his average will stink in 2021, and if I can get an average in that range with his first career 30 homer season and his second season with 100+ RBI, I love the value.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
Baseballsavant.mlb.com
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.