Although Julio Urías may best be remembered recording the last out clinching the Dodgers World Championship, he worked in the rotation during the regular season logging 10 starts and a bulk start after an opener. He went 3-0 in 2020 over 55 innings with a 45:18 K:BB, 3.27 ERA, 4.88 SIERA and 1.15 WHIP. His strikeout percentage (20.1) and swinging strike rate (11.7 percent) fell compared to 2019 while giving up more contact. Hence his inflated SIERA sitting a run and a half over his ERA.
Part of his allure, the ability to mitigate hard contact. Urias allowed 161 batted ball events last year giving up only eight barrels (five percent), an 87.1 MPH average exit velocity and 28.6 hard hit rate against. His hard-hit percentage ranked in the 91st percentile among his peers. His expected numbers do not portend too much migration to the mean like his SIERA with a .218 expected batting average (xBA), .286 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and 3.45 expected earned run average (xERA).
Noting his strikeout and swinging strike numbers fell, it's time to explore his arsenal displaying all of his whiffs from 2020:
Although his sinker gets listed in the usage percent, it produced zero swinging strikes. Diving deeper into his offerings, check out his performance by pitch last season:
Pitch | Usage | xBA | xwOBA | Whiff% | Put Away% | K% |
4-seam | 57.6% | .209 | .304 | 25.7% | 19.7% | 20.3% |
Curve | 22.5% | .141 | .196 | 25.6% | 14.1% | 21.7% |
Change | 13.7% | .295 | .301 | 31.1% | 20.7% | 15.4% |
Slider | 5.8% | .256 | .335 | 20% | 12.5% | 27.3 |
Urias used his slider less in 2020 than the previous season despite it being a swing and miss pitch for him. This will need to be monitored early on in 2021 in an effort to discern how he adjusts his repertoire. When viewing his zone results, he generated a lower zone swing rate but allowed more contact in it. His swing percentage fell along with his whiff rate. Thankfully, he kept his hard-hit data down evidenced by his solid plus barrel percentage at 10 percent within his batted ball events. He also may benefit from a “deadened” baseball being a fly ball pitcher. With slightly higher seams, it could pave the way for his spin rates to rise. He finished in the 89th percentile in curve spin and the 90th percentile in fastball spin in 2020.
Noting swing and take for pitchers’ rewards pitchers with a negative runs score, here's his from last year:
His ability to thrive in the shadow of the strike zone keeps hitters off balance while insulating his low hard-hit rates.
Transitioning to Brooks Baseball in order to dig into his swinging strike percentage by pitch, here's his numbers from 2019 and 2020 as a comparison:
Pitch | 2019 SwStr% | 2020 SwStr% | Gain/Loss |
4-seam | 14.06% | 14.9% | +0.86 |
Change | 22.51% | 15.35% | -7.16 |
Slider | 15.35% | 14.06% | -1.29 |
Curve | 7.37% | 9.47% | -2.1 |
It remains to be seen if he brings his slider back to the forefront. Using it more than the change-up seems to make sense given the expected numbers and results.
Before seeing his projections, Urias averaged five innings per outing in 2020. His biggest workload as a paid pitcher occurred in 2016 when he logged 122 innings. Even if Los Angeles follows other teams predicted innings limits, adding 100 last year would result in 155 innings. They may be terrific, but it needs to be baked into his draft capital.
Now for the projection sets from five sites:
There's a chance for him to meet or exceed these numbers but it's a volume game. Be prepared to replace him at any point of the year if the Dodgers give him a stint on the injured list to preserve his innings for the playoffs. Four pitchers continue to wage battle for two spots in the rotation and it may be a revolving door. Pay for the low ratio statistics and low hard-hit rates but monitor his usage closely.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
BrooksBaseball.net
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
Steamerprojections.com
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
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