Transitioning to a full-time reliever served Drew Pomeranz well in 2020. He won his only decision while recording four saves with a 29:10 K:BB over 18.2 innings of work spanning 20 games. His ratio statistics also fared well with a 1.45 ERA, 3.11 SIERA and 1.02 WHIP. Pomeranz owned a 39.7 strikeout percentage with a 13.7 percent walk rate while benefiting from a high 90.9 percent strand rate which probably reflects in his SIERA much higher than his ERA.
Beneath the surface statistics, Pomeranz racked up a 13.9 swinging strike percentage giving up a 70 percent contact rate and 79.8 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percentage. While many fantasy owners hoped Pomeranz would receive a larger share of saves, he's entering 2021 in a similar shared high leverage role with teammates Emilio Pagán and newly-added Mark Melancon . Still, there's value to be mined from Pomeranz in fantasy.
According to Statcast, Pomeranz yielded 34 batted ball events allowing only one barrel (2.9 percent), an 86.7 MPH average exit velocity and 29.4 hard hit percentage. He avoided hard contact all season with a minuscule 5.9 sweet spot percentage plus his expected numbers shine. Pomeranz recorded a 1.93 expected ERA (xERA) .118 expected batting average (xBA) and .206 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) forming an alluring zone profile working solely in the bullpen:
Although Pomeranz relied on only two pitches in 2020, being a reliever allows him to streamline his arsenal to maximize how he attacks hitters. First, here's his swing and miss chart courtesy of Statcast:
Here are how his two pitches fared last season:
- Pomeranz Four-Seam Fastball: .111 xBA .232 xwOBA, 33.6 whiff percentage, 44.4 K%, 24.4 put away percent
- Pomeranz Curveball: .134 xBA, .127 xwOBA, 39.3 whiff percentage, 38.2 K%, 28.6 put away percent
Despite allowing a higher zone swing percentage, Pomeranz reduced zone contact last year. He also boosted his whiff percentage by 7.8 percentage points as a reliever. Pomeranz prefers his curve when facing right-handed hitters and the fastball against left-handed batters. His batted ball data reveals an increase in ground ball rate to 47.1 percent in 2020 while cutting his line drive percentage to 2.9 percent (difficult to replicate). Hitters generated their highest percentage of balls in play to the opposite field facing Pomeranz evidenced by a 44.1 opposite field percent.
Using Brooks Baseball to find how each offering performed in familiar categories, here are both pitches with swinging strike percentage and ground ball percent included:
- Pomeranz Four-Seam Fastball: 15.24 SwStr%, 36 GB%
- Pomeranz Curveball: 17.14 SwStr%, 80 GB%
In an effort to expand his sample size before viewing his projections, using his time as a relief pitcher with Milwaukee in 2019 and San Diego last season helps:
- Pomeranz 2H 2019-through-2020 (as an RP): 1-1, six saves, 48 games, 47.1 IP, 79:18 K:BB, 1.71 ERA, 2.34 SIERA, 0.91 WHIP, 44.1 K%, 10.1 BB%, 15.9 SwStr%
During this time frame, here are Pomeranz's ranks among all qualified relievers:
- Second in K%
- Fourth in SIERA (most predictive ERA indicator)
- Fifth in ERA
- Tied for sixth in strikeouts
- Tied for 10th in WHIP
Even if Pomeranz shares save chances with Pagán, his ability to produce strikeouts while keeping ratio statistics down (ERA, WHIP) retain value in fantasy. Just heed his price compared to other relievers in his draft range. With all of this in mind, here are his projections from 2021:
Health and spring training usage may help fantasy players assess how to value Pomeranz as the season approaches. These save totals feel a bit high but if he records 15-to-18 while not regressing too much in ERA or strikeouts, there's much to like in this profile.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
BrooksBaseball.net
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
Steamerprojections.com
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
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