There's a helium guy (high riser) every year based on a breakout performance in the previous season in fantasy drafts. One such player pitches for the Brewers named Corbin Burnes . He went 4-1 in 2020 making nine starts among his 12 appearances logging 59.2 innings with a robust 88:24 K:BB, 2.11 ERA, 3.18 SIERA and 1.02 WHIP. His strikeout percentage (36.7) reached a career best mark and he still maintained a strong swinging strike rate of 14.5 percent despite moving into the rotation.
Building on his breakout determines his ceiling for 2021, along with how his team manages his innings. Already on record hoping only to add 100 innings to each member of its staff, this would put a cap on Burnes around 160 innings this season. Keep this in mind when viewing his projections later on.
So, what unlocked this previously untapped potential ace? For starters, he added a cutter to his arsenal helping produce more ground balls and strikeouts. Altering his usage patterns kept hitters off balance enabling the terrific season he put together. Starting with his swing and miss chart from Statcast, note the areas Burnes induces whiffs:
Honing in on some of the surface numbers, Burnes yielded 125 batted ball events giving up nine barrels (7.2 percent) with an average exit velocity of 86.9 MPH. Beneath these, he thrived in his expected statistics. He owned a .191 expected batting average (xBA), a .276 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and a 2.11 expected earned run average (xERA).
With this in mind, his results by pitch helps provide a bigger picture of how well he pitched last season:
Pitch | Usage | xBA | xwOBA | Whiff% | Put Away% | K% |
Sinker | 33.1% | .313 | .334 | 18.4% | 21.7% | 13.5% |
Cutter | 31.5% | .169 | .233 | 32.9% | 29.5% | 41.9% |
Slider | 12.7% | .107 | .153 | 60.3% | 35.2% | 61.3% |
Change | 11.2% | .158 | .175 | 44.2% | 25.8% | 34.8% |
Curve | 9.1% | .071 | .103 | 47.1% | 34.2% | 61.9% |
4-seam | 2.5% | .007 | .286 | 55.6 | 16.7 | 40 |
While there's no truth to the rumor he calls his 4-seam, Bond, he possesses three pitches with a whiff percentage at or above 44 with a usage percentage of nine or higher. Burnes could even move his strikeout rates higher with another tweak in his approach. But, at what price? His sinker fueled a career best 47.2 ground ball rate in a home run friendly home park. Despite all this, he ranked in the 96th percentile in strikeout percentage, 90th in whiff rate, 100th in fastball spin rate and 95th in curve spin.
Plus, his swing and take results placed eighth overall among his peers, one run below Jacob deGrom . Remember, this chart represents dominance by a pitcher with negative results:
Before delving into his projections, using the swinging strike determinant on Brooks Baseball can contextualize his outcomes by pitch in 2020:
Pitch | 2019 SwStr% | 2020 SwStr% | Gain/Loss |
4-seam | 9.57% | 12.5% | +2.93 |
Sinker | 2.5% | 8.04% | +5.54 |
Change | 20.51% | 20.72% | +0.21 |
Slider | 35.86% | 27.56% | -8.3 |
Curve | 10.53% | 18.18% | +7.65 |
Cutter | 0% | 16.67% | +16.67 |
For the visual crowd, a video displaying his arsenal during an 11-strikeout outing last season:
7 IP, 1 H, 11 Ks. Filthy.
— MLB (@MLB) September 9, 2020Tempering expectations gets difficult seeing the talent he carries into each start. However, Burnes only pitched at least six innings or more in four of his nine starts averaging 5.22 innings per start or retiring 16 hitters or less in each. Add this in with the possible innings cap of 100 over last year when taking him in drafts. Getting a late round upside play like Noah Syndergaard would complement a roster well in drafts.
Corbin Burnes lowers his ERA to 1.99. ????
(MLB x @ATT) pic.twitter.com/KeVgFTKewb
With all this in mind, here's his projection sets from five sites:
Definite room for upside but weigh all the factors since Burnes projects better as a starting pitcher two in fantasy with upside or a terrific third starter for the 2021 season.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
BrooksBaseball.net
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
Steamerprojections.com
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
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