With starting pitching flying off the board early in many drafts, one must decide how to proceed on players like Brandon Woodruff . He only won three of his eight decisions in 2020 but racked up 91 strikeouts against 18 walks over 73.2 innings with a 3.05 ERA, 3.30 SIERA and 0.99 WHIP. His strikeout percentage rose to 31.1 percent while keeping his walk rate stable at 6.1 percent.
He recorded a career best swinging strike percentage of 13 while reducing his contact rate allowed to 72.9 percent and his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) to 78 percent. Milwaukee already announced its pitchers may only add on 100 innings to their total from 2020, so this may limit him to about 175 innings in the year ahead. Keep this in mind during the projections.
According to Statcast, Woodruff allowed 180 batted ball events giving up 13 barrels (7.2 percent) and an 86.7 MPH average exit velocity. His expected numbers provide help with a .197 expected batting average (xBA), .261 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and 2.86 expected earned run average (xERA).
Like many others in the profiles, he tweaked his usage patterns but somehow used arguably his best pitch less last season. Here's his swing and miss chart with how often he used each offering in 2020:
Honing on how each pitch performed, here are his expected numbers along with how often they missed bats:
PItch | Usage | xBA | xwOBA | Whiff% | Put Away% | K% |
Four-Seam | 34.5% | .153 | .231 | 33.6% | 27% | 45.1% |
Sinker | 30.6% | .242 | .283 | 16.2% | 14.3% | 13.6% |
Change | 17.5% | .250 | .297 | 32.7% | 19.1% | 24.1% |
Slider | 10.9% | .136 | .220 | 46.2% | 20.3% | 48% |
Curve | 6.4% | .154 | .195 | 19% | 15.8% | 23.1% |
There's no guarantee Woodruff will deploy his slider more in the season ahead. But there's some strikeout upside if he does. As for his discipline metrics, he cut his zone contact by 5.6 percent on Statcast. His swing percentage decreased by three percent but his whiff rate rose by 3.5 percentage points. He produced more ground balls and less line drives. Versus his peers, he placed in the 90th percentile in xwOBA, the 91st in fastball velocity and xERA in the 90th percentile.
In an effort to illustrate his effectiveness in and out of the strike zone, check out his swing and take profile, noting pitchers with negative numbers rate better:
Delving into his swinging strike percentage results from Brooks Baseball, once again the slider stands out along with an improved rate from his four-seam fastball:
Pitch | 2019 SwStr% | 2020 SwStr% | Gain/Loss |
Four-Seam | 13.91% | 19.06% | +5.15% |
Sinker | 9.64% | 7.34% | -2.3% |
Change | 15.97% | 16.59% | +0.62% |
Slider | 13.37% | 18.49% | +5.12% |
Curve | 4.26% | 4.60% | +0.34 |
Due to missed time in the second half of 2019, it's a leap of faith for fantasy owners taking a chance on his continued breakout. Woodruff sowed the seeds of success last year, but can he maximize his strikeout potential with an innings limit this season? It remains to be seen but here are his projection sets from five sites:
If he reaches 200 strikeouts, this type of sequence needs to be maximized. First, elevated four-seamer inducing whiffs:
Then, use his change-up when ahead in the count:
Or, the slider diving out of the strike zone. If Woodruff ramps up the usage of this pitch to 20 percent, look out:
Process all the information and make an informed decision on draft day, just be sure to plan out how to back fill his innings later in the season. I love the upside, I just hope he handles the increased workload.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
BrooksBaseball.net
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
Steamerprojections.com
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
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