2021 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Anthony Rizzo

We are slowly entering the territory, if we aren’t already there yet, that Chicago’s Anthony Rizzo is a better asset in reality than in fantasy baseball. He’s still solid, don’t get me wrong, but after four straight 30+ home run seasons, he hit 25 in 2018 and 27 in 2019. To his credit, his home run pace in 2020 was right on par with 2015 and 2016, but the batted ball metrics don’t support productive power campaigns for Rizzo moving forward. However, there was a shift in his approach at the plate, and while it tanked his batting average to .222 the optimist will say that it revitalizes his power numbers. Me? Well, I’m a bit more skeptic on that front.

Aside from his .222 batting average in 2020, his on-base percentage (OBP) of .342 was saved by a solid 11.5 percent walk rate and ten hit-by-pitches in just 58 games. Other than the batting average woes, it was just another year for Rizzo. He was fine, not great, but fine in the power department, had a respectable on-base percentage (all things considered) and swiped a couple of bases. Now, he was on a pace to run more than 2019, which bodes well for 2021, but he’s no longer an eight-to-ten stolen base guy. In 2021, expectations should be tempered for about five or six bases, which is right on par with 2018 and 2019.

His overall exit velocity was down in 2020, and he had a hard time hitting non-fastballs with any sort of impactful contact. His exit velocities against breaking pitches and off-speed stuff were far and away his worst marks in the Statcast era. Now, his barrel rates were actually up against these pitches but overall, the average exit velocity was down considerably.

We talked about the shift in mentality for Rizzo, and it lies in his launch angle. His 16.7-degree launch angle was his highest mark since 2015 and compared to recent years, his ground ball and fly ball rates reverted back to marks of recent years. Furthermore, his launch angle was up, but that doesn’t mean everything was an impactful flyball. In fact, his pop-up rate of 11.4 percent was easily a career-high for Rizzo, as was the fact that he was under the ball 31.7 percent of the time.

In fact, his batted ball profile lies closely with his 2018 season, and somewhat to his 2017 season. In 2018, he hit 25 home runs, and in 2017 he hit 32 home runs. For 2021, he’ll be closer to the former.

Perhaps the most interesting part of his offensive game in 2020 was his pitch selection. He’s swung at non-fastballs more frequently than fastballs in recent years, but the disparity was far larger in 2020 than recent seasons. Also, pitchers got him out of the zone against these pitches more frequently.

Fortunately, Rizzo is an excellent contact hitter and isn’t afraid to “choke up” and “shorten his swing” with two strikes to avoid the punch out. His strikeout rate was slightly elevated in 2020 compared to years prior, but it’s hard to get up in arms about it, considering it’s still a solid mark.

His power numbers were right in line with recent years, and his AB/HR mark was actually quite respectable.

However, his ISO was just .192 last year, and is the second-lowest mark since 2015. Outside of his home runs last year, he had just six other extra-base hits. Eleven of his 17 extra-base hits were home runs last year. In 2019, he had 27 home runs and 29 doubles. In 2018, he had 25 home runs and 29 doubles. The extra-base hits outside of home runs just weren’t there in 2020, and could that be a product of his mentality shift? If he launches it with hard contact, in theory, the doubles would become home runs. However, he lost it altogether. So, yes, maybe his home run pace was comparable, but one could, and should, argue that he was lucky that those balls cleared the fence. The bigger issue here lies in the fact that he lacked significant, consistent power, and that’s concerning.

As I mentioned in the beginning of this article, Rizzo is a better player in reality than he is in fantasy baseball. His batting average should rebound this year, but he offers average at best power at his position, and without his stolen base total being elevated compared to the positional average, he doesn’t offer much these days. His fantasy value is at its highest if your league values on-base percentage. His ability to take a walk and a 95 mile per hour fastball to the ribs helps keep his OBP high. In OBP leagues, I’m far more willing to take Rizzo. However, in non-OBP leagues, there’s value to be had later at the position that likely produce similarly, or even outperform Rizzo.

Courtesy of Steamer Projections and NFBC ADP data

If it were up to me, I’d pass on Rizzo and take Josh Bell nearly four rounds later or take Nate Lowe super late and hope for the best. Rizzo isn’t the fantasy baseball asset he once was, and with a depreciating power profile, the numbers in his projections above seem rather lofty for 2021.

Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
Baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball