It’s been almost a year since the world went haywire and on a Monday night, a week after the Super Bowl, things seemed to get back to a bit of normalcy. The Mock Draft Army was back! I was joined by the creator himself, Howard Bender, all week and we dove into draft season.
The first mock was chronicled by Howard and Jim Bowden on the Fantasy Alarm show on Tuesday and then again on Ante Up with Howard and Adam Ronis. Jim praised the efforts of Austin Kroeger’s draft from the four-hole and Adam liked my start from the ten-spot with the combo of deGrom and José Ramírez . One aspect that’s fun at the end of the draft is that we get to check the Fantasy Alarm draft evaluator which projects the favorite to win the league based on the site’s projections. That honor went to Dan Crinion who picked third and started with Tatis, Mondesi, Giolito, and Kershaw putting to rest the theory that you need to pick a pitcher with one of your first two picks.
It’s hard to get a feel for an ADP after just three mocks, but let’s take a look at some trends we saw and compare them to what is being seen at the NFBC. Starting pitchers continue to dominate the first two rounds in the NFBC. Looking at 12-team drafts from Feb 1st to Feb 20th, eight pitchers are being taken in the first two rounds. The Army had a little different approach as it waited on starting pitching. Wednesday’s mock saw only five starters taken in the first two rounds and the first pitcher, deGrom, was taken eighth and Cole and Bieber went 11th and 12th. From the leadoff spot, Howard waited until round five to take his first pitcher in Lance Lynn . The Evaluator liked the move as he was projected to tie for first with my squad that led off with deGrom.
One of the reasons we love the Army and think it’s a great tool to prepare you for your drafts is that you come away knowing more than when you entered the draft. I learned that some are willing to take a closer as early as the third round. The NFBC has both Liam Hendriks and Josh Hader going in the fifth round. The Army was right in line with Hendriks having a fourth round ADP and Hader, a fifth round average. Taking a closer this early is not my cup of tea in 12-team leagues but I may have to reconsider in 15-teamers.
ADP Movers Week Of 2/13-2/20
(The ADP compares the player’s ADP from 10/1/20 to 2/13 and 2/13 to 2/20)
Trevor Rosenthal signed a one-year deal with the A’s to presumably become their closer. His ADP rose to 148 with a minimum pick of 92 as compared to 186 before the signing. As the closer picture is always cloudy with many teams this time of year, when something becomes clear, ADP moves. His ADP will continue to rise and get into the tenth round of 12-team leagues. Before his signing, Jake Diekman was the presumptive closer, but his ADP barely moved, going from 327 to 341, as most drafters figured that the A’s would look elsewhere.
Jake McGee saw a resurgence last year with the Dodgers and turned it into a two-year deal with the Giants. McGee hasn’t seen double digits in saves since 2016 but there is some speculation during drafts that he will see some save opportunities in San Francisco. Reyes Moronta and Tyler Rogers are in the mix there as well. McGee saw his ADP go from 550 to 350 with a 266 minimum pick last week. McGee is worth a late-round speculative pick, but if the hard-throwing Moronta is healthy, the job may fall into his hands. Follow our closer coverage with Greg Jewett throughout the season.
In Arizona, the Diamondbacks signed Asdrúbal Cabrera to a one-year deal. This move had more of an effect on the ADP of Daulton Varsho as it put into question playing time for the young C/OF. His ADP dropped two rounds in 12-team leagues going from 160 to 185. He’s been a speculative pick as he has catcher eligibility and was thought to be in line for the everyday CF job. His playing time and Cabrera’s need to be watched during spring training to see what Arizona has in mind.
What happens when a left-handed power hitter, who plays a position of need, gets signed to a minor league deal with Colorado? His ADP goes up and everyone projects him to be top ten in HR’s in the National League. That player is CJ Cron. Twitter went gaga over the signing and his ADP went from 385 to 268 with a minimum pick of 196. If Cron does land the starting job, those who picked him as a reserve in early drafts will be getting a bargain.
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.