It’s that time of the year where we’re all looking for those shiny new toys under the tree or being handed out by the light of a menorah or heck, just for being good all year and treating yourself. That feeling extends to the start of fantasy baseball season as well where the shiny new toys for their teams are all the talk heading into draft season as owners try to make splashes in the draft with young talent. This is especially true in keeper and dynasty leagues where capitalizing on drafting rookies can set you up for years to come. Who are the top rookies to be watching for though? That’s always the question, but luckily for you, you’re in the right place as we breakdown the top rookies heading into the 2020 season.
Luis Robert , OF CWS – Is there any question as to why he’s at the top of the list this year? He went through three levels of the White Sox farm system and if you just look at his Double-A and Triple-A numbers, over 103 games, they’re still very impressive. A slash line of .306/.352/.573 over 428 at-bats with 24 homers, 87 runs, 68 RBI, and 28 steals, and by the way if you include the High-A games (19) his slash line goes up and he had a 30-30 campaign. The White Sox only have Adam Engel , Leury García , and a few others ahead of him but none of those guys are in the realm of what Robert can do. Chicago will be making a run at the division this year so Robert should get lots of run.
Jesús Luzardo , LHP OAK – Luzardo would’ve been in the running for an Opening Day roster spot had it not been for a pesky shoulder injury that popped up in spring training. In the 55 innings of rehab work, and 12 in the majors, he compiled a 2.29 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 11.9 K/9 rate, and 1.8 BB/9 rate and looked good in relief for the A’s down the stretch in a playoff run. He should be filling a rotation spot very early in the season, if not breaking camp with the team, and as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, he’s clearly got value from the jump.
Gavin Lux , 2B/SS LAD – We saw a bit of what Lux can do at the plate in a small sample size in September as the Dodgers called him up in order to still count him on the post-season roster. Though he did struggle a bit in his major league time, the minor league season for him was nothing short of spectacular. He played in 113 games between Double-A Tulsa and Triple-A Oklahoma City and amassed a .347/.421/.607 slash line with 26 homers, 99 runs, 76 RBI, and 10 steals. The Nationals were able to expose him in the playoff series as he just couldn’t lay off breaking pitches and that will be something he’ll have to work on, just like all young hitters. There were also concerns about his defense in the minors with him posting 13 errors in 91 games at short, though he was better at second, which is where he’ll mostly play in 2020.
Jo Adell , OF LAA – We’ve been hearing about the athletic outfielder as the top prospect in the Angels’ system for a couple of years, and now it’s time to see him at the major league level. Hamstring and ankle injuries cost him spring training last year and about half the year in the minors, but in the 70 games he played in the upper minors, Adell managed a .289/.361/.467 triple-slash line with eight homers, 50 runs, 31 RBI, and seven steals. Those are solid numbers all around, however, they pace out to a 19-homer, 116-run, 72-RBI, and 16-steal season if going on a 162-game season. The Angels need more around Mike Trout than what they currently have and need to fill an opening in the outfield so expect Adell, as news has been trending in camp, to be the Opening Day teammate of Trout.
A.J. Puk , LHP OAK – The former first-rounder is finally ready to make his long-term big league stint happen after getting a taste of it late in 2019. He is coming off of Tommy John surgery that ate up his entire 2018 campaign. He didn’t pitch much in 2019 across four levels, with 36.2 total innings logged and just 157.2 innings prior to getting injured between 2016 and 2017. The big lefty has the quintessential build for a top of the rotation starter with three plus pitches in his fastball, slider, and changeup, while offering a curveball as a change of pace pitch. High velocity and high strikeout totals should follow Puk on the mound as he’s expected to compete for a rotation spot in spring training.
Brendan Rodgers, 2B COL – The Rockies had the worst offensive second base spot in baseball last year, and could never really find an answer between Daniel Murphy getting injured, Garrett Hampson struggling, and Rodgers getting injured. Ryan McMahon performed well, but it’s really Rodgers’ job to have at this point. Rodgers is still recovering from shoulder surgery last June and may miss up to a month of the regular season. He lacked the pop in 2019 that he had shown previously, with no homers and two XBH in 25 major league games before getting injured. Rodgers has the ability to hit between .260-.280 and be a 25-15 guy in the majors, not to mention he’s got the Coors Field boost to help him out.
Brendan McKay , LHP TB – The former top-five pick out of Louisville as a two-way player made a quick ascension to the majors last year going from Double-A Montgomery all the way to the Rays and making 11 starts for them (13 total appearances). In the first 73.2 innings of 2019, he was pretty much untouchable with a 1.10 ERA, 2.05 FIP, 12.5 K/9 rate, 2.2 BB/9, 0.82 WHIP, and 36.7-percent K-rate over 13 starts (15 appearances). In that same time, his bat was still a part of the game, though not a big one as he’s never really developed as a hitter in the pros since being taken in the first-round. The 5.14 ERA from the 49 innings of major league appearances is a bit misleading as he had a 4.03 FIP, 4.38 xFIP, and 4.17 SIERA to go with a 26-percent K-rate. The biggest issue for him was the homers given up with eight allowed in the majors compared to nine in his 172 career minor league innings. Keeping the ball in the park will help drop his ratios in 2020.
Dustin May, RHP LAD – The guy getting confused for Carrot Top on the mound later in the season was in fact May. Aside from the lustrous mane, he’s got great stuff on the mound and that showed last year as he went through three levels of the Dodgers’ system. In 20 starts between Double-A Tulsa and Triple-A Oklahoma City he posted a 3.37 ERA and a 110:29 K:BB ratio in 106.2 innings. Then he pitched 34.2 innings for the Dodgers including some work in the post-season with a solid 3.63 ERA, 8.31 K/9, and 1.30 BB/9, with the FIP at 2.90. The Dodgers have lost Hyun-Jin Ryu in free agency and Kenta Maeda in a trade but also acquired David Price and Alex Wood for their rotation which might mean that May is a bit of a tweener candidate this year with spot starts and a bullpen role coming his way.
Nick Madrigal , 2B CWS – The White Sox made the Oregon State second baseman the fourth pick in the 2018 draft and since then, he’s been flying through the Chicago farm system. He logged 29 games at Triple-A Charlotte last year and put on a show to finish a spectacular three-level campaign. Madrigal had a final stat line of .311/.377/.414 slash with four homers, 76 runs, 55 RBI, and 35 steals in 120 games. He is a throwback of sorts at the keystone as he profiles as a Gold Glover with a high batting average hitter with good speed but not a ton of pop. It’s easy to look passed Madrigal in fantasy circles because he doesn’t have better than below-average power, but speed is a key tenant of the game and there is a clear spot up the middle for Madrigal to get a lot of playing time this year and help your teams with average and speed.
Casey Mize , RHP DET – Mize has been a stud in the Tigers farm system since being taken number one overall in the 2018 draft out of Auburn. He reached Double-A Erie for the first time in 2019 and posted great numbers over 15 starts there with a 2.98 FIP (3.20 ERA), 1.11 WHIP, 23.5-percent K-rate, and only allowed .57 HR/9. Mize possesses three plus-to-double-plus pitches and commands them excellently. The various speeds and movement on the pitches allow him to throw any pitch in any count already despite still being just a 22-year-old. He is clearly a future ace who posted a 106:23 K:BB ratio in 109.1 innings last year, the only real question is just when he’ll come up for the Tigers and the bet is early June.
Jose Urquidy, RHP HOU – Everyone got a sense of what Urquidy could do as a rotation-spot fill-in for the Astros down the stretch, and into the post-season. He pitched masterfully against the Nationals in Game 4 of the World Series but even prior to that, his 41 innings were solid too. He posted a 3.95 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 8.78 K/9, 1.54 BB/9, and 1.10 WHIP in that span. Urquidy may not have been one of the better known pitching prospects in the Houston system, but when he came up he proved he has the goods to stay. He was get guys out efficiently, keeping hitters off balance with his mid-90s running fastball, his softer biting curveball, and his fading changeup thrown with the same arm speed and slot as the fastball. Houston needs a couple of starters so expect Urquidy to fill one of those roles from the jump, but not offer as much upside as the guys ahead of him on this list.
Carter Kieboom , 2B/SS WAS – When Trea Turner got injured early in the season last year, Kieboom was the recipient of the call-up, though it didn’t exactly go as well as was hoped. He struggled defensively, a bit out of the ordinary for him, and his bat looked overmatched. However, going back to Fresno, the Triple-A affiliate in the PCL, he got things going again. Kieboom finished the year with a .303/.409/.493 slash line in 109 games with 16 homers, 79 each of runs and RBI, and five steals. There is clearly talent there to be a top of the order type bat that hits for average and gets on-base but we’ll need to see that at the major league level first. With the departure of Anthony Rendon from the hot corner in D.C., Kieboom figures to be the everyday option going into next year while hitting in the bottom third of the lineup.
Austin Hays , OF BAL – Hays has been a guy that has hit pretty well at each level, when healthy, but that health is the concern here. In 2017, he hit .329/.366/.593 with 32 homers, 95 RBI, 81 runs, and five steals in High-A and Double-A over 128 games and then played 20 games in the majors in September. After that the injuries took over with a shoulder and stress fracture in 2018 limiting him to 75 games. Then he got off to a slow start in 2019, with a thumb injury and then a hamstring strain in June limiting him to 87 games in the minors, over four levels, and 21 in the majors. When he was fully healthy, for his time in the majors last year, he slashed .309/.373/.574 with four homers, 13 RBI, 12 runs, and two steals. He should be the starting centerfielder going into the season giving him solid upside in a division filled with bandboxes for ballparks.
Mitch Keller , RHP PIT – Keller is a candidate to reach ace status in a year or two, but that got off to a bumpy start last year when he came up and pitched to a 7.13 ERA (3.19 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, and 3.78 SIERA) in his 11 starts and 48 innings in Pittsburgh. Keller had some better peripherals at the major league level with a better K-rate (both in K/9 and K-percent) and lower walk rates. However, the home run rate wasn’t nearly as good, giving up six in 48 innings compared to nine in 103.2 at Triple-A Indianapolis. Keller has a power sinking fastball as his main weapon, and a plus-curveball as the secondary pitch backed up by an above-average changeup. He’ll get a longer run this year with the rebuilding Pirates and strikeout upside is nice, as long as you’re willing to deal with a bit higher ERA, he’s got solid upside.
Dylan Carlson, OF STL – Carlson broke out in a big way in 2019, splitting it between two levels of the Cardinals’ system, and getting a shot in the Futures Game during the All-Star break. In 126 games, including 108 at Double-A Springfield, he slashed .292/.372/.542 with 26 home runs, 95 runs, 68 RBI, and 20 steals and just over a 20-percent K-rate and 10.3-percent walk-rate. He has great offensive potential as a switch-hitter with five above-average or better tools and his 2019 season pacing out as a 33 HR/26 SB season for 162 games. The problem for Carlson is the crowded outfield in St. Louis, however, it will depend on how much and where they play Harrison Bader , Tommy Edman , Dexter Fowler , and Tyler O'Neill . He can be a nice rookie option for your fantasy teams that could come cheap.
Anthony Kay, LHP, TOR – Kay was dealt to the Blue Jays last year at the deadline in the Marcus Stroman deal. He’s used his three-pitch mix and got a taste of the majors late last year. He has a chance to round into a mid-rotation arm. In 2019 he pitched at three levels across two organizations, and wound up with a combined stat line of 2.96 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 135:56 K:BB ratio, and .227 BAA in 26 starts and 133.2 innings in the minors. The high-spin-rate fastball sits between 92-94 and generates almost a sinker feel. Kay backs that pitch up with a low-80’s high-spin-rate curveball that is a plus offering and a changeup that also has late sink to it and is an above-average pitch. The southpaw, now 24, should find a spot in the Blue Jays burgeoning rotation pretty early in the year and offers a nice K/9 upside in the back of the rotation in a tough division.
Michael Kopech , RHP CWS – Kopech was a household name a couple of years ago when he was lighting up radar guns to the tune of triple-digits regularly in starts. Then he was dealt from the Red Sox to the White Sox in the Chris Sale trade and missed the entire 2019 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. At his best he’s an ace-caliber starter with a high-velocity, running fastball, a wipeout two-plane-breaking slider that sits upper-80s, a downer curveball, and a sinking changeup. When healthy, his stuff profiles closest to Noah Syndergaard at his best, however, control has been an issue in his career as he’s pitched to a 4.4 BB/9 mark combined in the last four minor league stops with more than 20 IP each. Coming off of Tommy John, control is often one of the last things to come for a pitcher so don’t expect that walk mark to drop much this year, but he should make up for it with good strikeout numbers. Kopech won’t pitch a full workload this year, hence his position on this list, so keep that in mind in terms of value.
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, OF/DH TB – If you’re not sure who this is, Tsutsugo was just signed to a two-year deal by Tampa Bay after posting from the Nippon Professional Baseball Organization, a.k.a. the Japanese professional league. He’s a 28-year-old left-handed outfielder and DH who played 10 years in the NPB and a total 0f 968 games. In that span he slashed .285/.382/.528 while averaging 34 homers, 103 RBI, 86 runs, and a steal per 162 games. In terms of swing, he compares to Shohei Ohtani , but with more pure power and about the same ability to hit for average. Tsutsugo has had seven-straight seasons with 22 or more homers, including two of three with 38 or more. There will be an adjustment period to major league pitching and the playing time isn’t guaranteed to be full-time with the way Tampa uses their bats, but the small parks in the division should be helpful for his power numbers.
Forrest Whitley , RHP HOU – It’s been quite the last couple of years of Whitley with the 50-game suspension, and minor lat and oblique injuries in 2018 that limited him to 26.1 innings in the regular season and Arizona Fall League work. In 2019 it was a roller coaster of performances that only got worse the higher he climbed. He finished with a 7.99 ERA in 59.2 innings and a 1.73 WHIP, but had 86 strikeouts in that span as well. Whitley has a dizzying array of pitches with all four grading as plus or better. Those pitches start with the mid-90s fastball that sinks down in the zone or cuts up in the zone, a changeup that has fade and depth and may be his best pitch, a true 12-to-6 curveball, and two-plane slider with late bite. Why did he get hit so hard last year? That’s a question without an answer other than possibly having a lack of focus. Either way, he’s got stuff to prove this year before filling a spot in the Astros’ rotation and continuing to progress toward the Geritt Cole type he can be based on stuff.
Evan White , 1B SEA – White made history earlier this offseason as the Mariners signed him to six-year extension despite only playing four games playing above Double-A. In 2019, he spent 92 games in Arkansas slashing .292/.350/.488 with 18 homers, 61 runs, 55 RBI, and two steals. All of this while playing Gold-Glove caliber defense at first base. He also made a change to his swing to allow him to gain leverage in his plane by lowering the start position of his hands and that showed as he had nearly a .900 OPS in August. White is expected to be the starting first baseman for Seattle to start the year which may sound great for his value, but he’s still relatively undeveloped in the minors with 230 total games played. There definitely should be some growing pains, and don’t expect his career .296/.361/.471 slash or the 23-homer, 98-run, 94-RBI, five-steal pace he’s had in those minor league games either. White should give you about a .280 average with 18-22 homers if he plays the full year.