Sometimes fantasy owners target a player one year too soon. Yoán Moncada seemed primed for a breakout but it did not occur until 2019. Last season, Moncada played in 132 games with 83 runs, 25 home runs, 79 RBI, 10 stolen bases and a robust .315/.367/.548 slash line. He’s the only American League player to record at least a .300 average, 30 doubles, 25 home runs, 75 RBI and 10 steals. Only Ketel Marte and Cody Bellinger reached these plateaus in the National League in 2019.

Of more importance, Moncada reduced his strikeout total from 217 in 2018 to 153 last season. He also increased his total bases by 68 despite accruing 67 fewer at-bats. Moncada lowered his strikeout percentage to 27.5 from 33.4 percent yet increased his home run per fly ball percentage by eight and a half points.

Shifting to plate discipline, Moncada recorded a 13.9 swinging strike percentage and 70.6 contact percentage even though his aggressiveness grew. According to Statcast, Moncada upped his zone swing percentage by 4.4 points which helped fuel his growth in batting average.

Moncada amassed 361 batted ball events with 44 barrels (12.2 barrel percentage) with an average exit velocity of 92.8 MPH. This represents an increase of over two MPH for Moncada and he ranked seventh in baseball in the category. After hitting a career high 25 home runs, Moncada notched an average launch angle of 12 degrees. Most impressive of Moncada’s data from 2019 could be his 47.9 hard hit percentage on Statcast of 173 batted ball events with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or higher. He also recorded the 18th best maximum exit velocity in the majors last season with one registered at 115.8 MPH. Here’s a look at his exit velocity chart:

This fueled Moncada’s impressive expected statistics as well. His expected batting average of .291 accompanied an expected slugging of .524 with one of the top expected weighted on-base average on contact (xwoBACON) of .478 last season. It’s unlikely Moncada will repeat his batting on balls in play of .406, but his expected average along with quality of batted ball data should prevent a crater in the category as well. Keep this in mind for his projections. As for his expected numbers, Moncada’s zone profile exemplifies growth:

As a switch hitter, Moncada did not exhibit a glaring weakness from either side of the plate, though it’s apparent he hits for more power  as a left-handed batter:

  • Moncada vs. LHP - four home runs, 25 RBI, .201 isolated power; .299/.345/.500
  • Moncada vs. RHP - 21 home runs, 54 RBI, .246 isolated power; .322/.377/.569

Here’s Moncada’s spray chart of hits from 2019:

Armed with a two MPH growth in average exit velocity, a breakout in 2019 featuring 25 home runs and double digits in stolen bases in spite of missing three weeks with a hamstring injury, Yoán Moncada does not seem to be overvalued in early average draft position data. In fact, he’s the 11th third base eligible player taken in live drafts according to NFBC data through the end of December. Perhaps owners do not buy into his season from 2019 or the inflated average, but with the additions the White Sox made to the roster, it seems shortsighted.

Moncada slashed .344/.401/.604 over 300 plate appearances batting second with 50 runs, 17 home runs, 42 RBI and nine stolen bases (in 10 attempts) in 68 games. His projection sets portend regression in batting average but, still very enticing numbers:

  • Yoán Moncada Steamer Projection - 150 games, 586 at-bats, 94 runs, 27 home runs, 82 RBI, 12 stolen bases; .267/.340/.475
  • Yoán Moncada ZiPS Projection - 141 games, 547 at-bats, 84 runs, 26 home runs, 78 RBI, 14 stolen bases; .274/.341/.483

Think of Moncada’s slash lines above as the worst-case scenarios and his expected average from Statcast of .291 as the high for outcomes on his average in 2020. With health, Moncada could score 100 runs with 27 home runs and up to 15 stolen bases. He will not turn 25 until May and seems at least capable of a near repeat from last year in terms of counting statistics but may set new highs in runs, home runs and RBI. Yoán Moncada still represents a growth stock for fantasy but without being priced as such. Buy with confidence.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS projections courtesy of Dan Szymborski