Father time comes for everyone, Yadier Molina included. Last year, Molina continued a three-year decline in games played missing time with a thumb injury suffered in May which lingered into the second half of the season. Molina logged 113 games in 2019 with 45 runs, ten home runs, 57 RBI, six stolen bases (in as many attempts) and a .270/.312/.399 slash line. His thumb injury definitely sapped the power surge displayed in 2018 and Molina will turn 38 in July. So it’s time to re-assess drafting Molina this season.

Safety lies in his 212 RBI over the last three years as a catcher leading all of his peers in the majors at catcher. Hope lies in his 42-game sample following his return from the injured list on August 13th with 176 plate appearances, 21 runs, six home runs, 21 RBI, two steals and .285/.352/.449 slash with a 12.2-percent home run per fly ball rate. This home run per fly ball rate aligns closely with his 2018 numbers (13.6-percent) which yielded 20 home runs in 123 contests. It remains to be seen if Molina can carry this rate throughout 2020, but it’s worth noting the spike compared to his season total of 8.1-percent.

According to Statcast, Molina recorded 366 batted ball events with 14 barrels (3.8-percent), an average exit velocity of 87.4 MPH with a launch angle of 13.8 degrees resulting in a 34.7-percent hard hit rate. Here’s his spray chart from last year:

Molina’s expected statistics suggest he incurred some bad luck last season. He finished with a .275 expected batting average, .443 expected slugging and a .325 expected weighted on-base average (22 points over his actual). He improved his zone swing percentage by 4.9 points to 75.3-percent but also proved to be more aggressive with a spike in his first-pitch swing rate by over ten points to 46.9-percent. Luckily, Molina owns a top-10 percent strikeout rate (only 12.8-percent) so he’s held on to his ability to make contact in spite of being more assertive during his at-bats. Here’s his zone profile:

Before looking at his projections, over the last three years Molina’s appeared in 376 games with 1,516 plate appearances, 163 runs, 49 home runs, 217 RBI, 19 stolen bases and a .271/.315/.431 slash. Among catchers with at least 1,000 plate appearances in this time frame, Molina ranks second in steals, third in RBI, fourth in runs, sixth in average and eighth in home runs.

It will be difficult to forecast how many games Molina will play at the most demanding position in baseball. However, if he can match last year’s total, his power should rebound but how much? Here are his projections from three different sites:

  • Yadier Molina 2020 Steamer Projection - 102 games, 428 plate appearances, 44 runs, 12 home runs, 50 RBI, four stolen bases; .263/.311/.410
  • Yadier Molina 2020 ATC Projection - 111 games, 450 plate appearances, 47 runs, 12 home runs, 56 RBI, five stolen bases: .264/.309/.406
  • Yadier Molina 2020 ZiPS Projection - 435 plate appearances, 43 runs, 12 home runs, 57 RBI, six stolen bases; .258/.302/.395

All three systems predict a drop in Molina’s batting average and account for last year’s drop in counting statistics. There’s a chance Yadier Molina exceeds these totals in a contract year. He also could miss more time due to injury issues. With his draft price depressed, he’s an ideal option to pair with an upside catcher in two-catcher formats, but Molina’s a fringy catcher in one-catcher leagues unless his 42-game sample from 2019 carries over.

Long story short, reaching for Molina does not make sense in 2020, but he’s still a solid catcher who will not drain a team’s batting average with a chance for recapturing some of the gains from 2018, but not fully achieving them. Price him accordingly.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

MLB.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski