Finding later round wrinkles and fallback options strengthens savvy drafters. Renato Núñez launched 31 home runs in 2019 with 72 runs and 90 RBI for the Orioles. He improved his slash line to .250/.319/.419 trading power for better contact. Nunez still hit 11 home runs over his last 67 contests. Of more interest to fantasy owners, Nunez owns eligibility at first base, logging 24 games at the position last season. With the first base lacking late round options, Nunez represents hope if missing out on early targets.
Nunez recorded a 7.3 walk percentage with a 23.9 strikeout percentage and a .216 isolated power. He reduced his swinging strike percentage from 14.3 percent in 2018 to 12.7 last year, upped his contact rate by just under three percent with gains in Z-Contact (in the strike zone) by almost four percent.
According to Statcast, Nunez generated 402 batted ball events with 43 barrels (10.7 percent), an 89.9 MPH average exit velocity and 20-degree launch angle. He raised his average exit velocity by one MPH but increased his hard-hit rate to 40.6-percent, 4.2 points higher than his number from 2018. Playing in an above average hitting home ballpark enabled a career high home run total for Nunez as seen in his spray chart:
It’s obvious Nunez owns pull side power and Camden Yards plays to this strength. Determining how much pull back he could suffer in terms of regression from last season could determine his fantasy value. Nunez registered a .252 expected batting average with a .469 expected slugging and .401 expected weighted on-base average on contact. Improving his zone contact percentage by 5.3 points and cutting down his whiff rate by four percent suggests he’s improving in plate discipline metrics. This could support his xBA sitting eight points his actual. Here’s his zone profile from last year:
Nunez will only turn 26 in April but gets a discount in fantasy due to his defensive limitations. However, if he can carry over the gains from the second half while keeping his pull side power, there’s a chance of a near repeat, even if his home run total dips slightly. Check out his projections:
- Renato Núñez 2020 Steamer Projection - 143 games, 601 plate appearances, 72 runs, 28 home runs, 84 RBI, two stolen bases; .247/.311/.453
- Renato Núñez 2020 ATC Projection - 144 games, 583 plate appearances, 68 runs, 27 home runs, 80 RBI, stolen base; .245/.309/.446
- Renato Núñez 2020 THE BAT Projection - 143 games, 594 plate appearances, 29 home runs, 77 RBI, stolen base; .241/.306/.451
Nunez accrued 97 games hitting cleanup for the Orioles, but the runs and RBI could be a bit low depending if he stays there all season in 2020. As a cumulative group, Baltimore’s fourth hitters scored 93 runs with 112 RBI over 636 RBI. It’s likely Nunez can repeat an average near his Steamer projection but it may represent a ceiling in the category. If he can score 80 runs with 90 RBI, he gets more interesting. Bad teams still provide fantasy upside and there will be games the Orioles score runs. Hitting cleanup and under the radar, Nunez can return profit based on his price point in drafts. He’s not worth a reach, but could be a risk worth taking if missing out on the early tiers at first base.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Baseball-Reference.com
Steamerprojections.com
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
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