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After spending 2018 splitting time across the top two levels of the minor leagues, the Mets provided Pete Alonso the chance to win the first base job at spring training last year. As he continued to rake, he remained a flier in drafts with power potential. Little did those who speculated on his upside plan on the breakout Alonso turned in. Here’s a brief list of the records he set as a rookie:
- Alonso became the eighth player in Mets history with at least 100 runs and RBI in a season
- Set team records in home runs (53) and the major league rookie record in the category
- Also registered team bests in total bases (347) and extra-base hits (85)
- Alonso also set rookie records in RBI (120), runs (102) and hits (154)
- Notched 33 multi-hit games and launched 27 home runs at home
Amidst all the records, Alonso finished with a .260/.358/.583 slash line over 161 games spanning 693 plate appearances. His power surge resulted in a .323 isolated power and 30.6 home run per fly ball percentage. In terms of discipline, Alonso owned a 10.4 percent walk rate, 26.4 percent strikeout rate, 12.4 swinging strike percentage, 73.2 percent contact rate and 83.4 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percent.
According to Statcast, Alonso generated 417 batted ball events with 66 barrels (15.8 percent), a 90.6 MPH average exit velocity and 14.8-degree launch angle. He ranked second among all major league hitters in barrels. Alonso recorded a 42.3 hard hit percentage and 37.4 sweet spot percentage. His maximum exit velocity of 118.3 MPH also ranked second in the majors. For an illustration of his batted balls in play, here’s his spray chart from last season:
In terms of expected statistics, Alonso’s expected batting average of .257 and expected slugging of .542 do not show much variance. His expected weighted on-base average of .374 sits 20 points below his actual, so perhaps some migration to the mean could occur in his on-base rates. Here’s his zone profile courtesy of Statcast:
Trying to predict his upcoming season, one cannot ignore some of Alonso’s splits from 2019, especially by halves:
- Pete Alonso 1H - 89 games, 325 at-bats, 57 runs, 30 home runs, 68 RBI; .280/.372/.634
- Pete Alonso 2H - 71 games, 272 at-bats, 46 runs, 23 home runs, 52 RBI; .235/.341/.522
Noting his possibly inflated weighted on-base average (wOBA), seeing Alonso’s slide in on-base rates in the second half could be a precursor for 2020. But, how much erosion could his batting average incur? It depends. In terms of discipline metrics, it’s not terrible, but Alonso showed some cracks in the armor after the break:
- Pete Alonso 1H - 11.3 percent swinging strike rate, 74.6 contact rate, 84.2 Z-Contact percent
- Pete Alonso 2H - 14 percent swinging strike rate, 71.6 contact rate, 82.5 Z-Contact percent
It’s apparent the league made adjustments against Alonso but he kept pace in terms of power. His outlook for this year should be somewhere in the middle of his two halves. With reports of baseballs being less active in spring training, getting hitters with power upside could be important. Here are Alonso’s projections:
- Pete Alonso 2020 Steamer Projections - 150 games, 663 plate appearances, 98 runs, 44 home runs, 105 RBI, two stolen bases; .252/.344/.535
- Pete Alonso 2020 ATC Projections - 151 games, 652 plate appearances, 94 runs, 43 home runs, 107 RBI, stolen base; .255/.348/.537
- Pete Alonso 2020 THE BAT Projections - 152 games, 658 plate appearances, 94 runs, 42 home runs, 107 RBI, two stolen bases; .255/.344/.530
When targeting Pete Alonso in drafts, it’s going to take a second or third round selection to roster his 40-plus home runs in 2020. Although his average and on-base percentage could regress slightly, Alonso’s in line to approach 100 runs and RBI once again in a potentially improved Mets lineup. If taking Alonso, get some batting average insulation as the draft progresses to keep the team average near .270 when competing in rotisserie formats. With all of his projection sets nearly aligned, Alonso could repeat his .260 average, but it’s not necessary for him to be productive. However, with this in mind, paying full retail for last year’s numbers would be a mistake. Enter with eyes wide open getting 42-to-45 home runs with 100-plus RBI and a .255 average, which feels just right.
Update 2/18
In light of reports about Realmuto fracturing his right thumb may affect his power during the season. This needs to be baked into his projection sets, especially if he's not ready by Opening Day. Monitor this closely as news evolves.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Steamerprojections.com
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
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