For a second straight season, Omar Narváez outperformed his preseason projections and average draft position returning great value. In 2019, Narvaez appeared in 132 games accruing 428 at-bats, 63 runs, 22 home runs, 55 RBI and a .278/.353/.460 slash line. Among catchers with at least 300 plate appearances, here’s how Narvaez ranked in fantasy categories:
- Fifth in runs
- Eighth in home runs
- 16th in RBI
- Second in batting average
- Fourth in on-base percentage
- Tied for ninth in slugging percentage
Yet, he’s the tenth catcher taken in preseason average draft position data. Supposedly a shift from Chicago to Seattle would hamper his power breakout, but Narvaez mashed a career high 22 last season. Of course, with the juiced-up baseball, most players benefited from the batter-friendly environment.
In 2019, Narvaez recorded a 26.3-percent line drive rate, 33.1-percent ground ball rate, and a 40.5-percent fly ball rate. His home run per fly ball percentage jumped to 16.1-percent, he only pulled the ball 38.6-percent of the time and he’s not a hard-hit stud. Narvaez did trade some discipline for the power growth with his swinging strike percentage increasing by 2.6-percent, his contact rate dropped by 3.7 points and he upped his O-Swing (swings and misses outside the strike zone) percentage by 5.4-percent.
Yet, he remained one of the best values at catcher last season. Shifting to Statcast data, Narvaez produced 339 batted ball events with only 18 barrels and an average exit velocity of 85.4 MPH. His expected numbers project some pullback with a .254 expected batting average and .422 expected slugging percentage. But, there’s some hope in his expected weighted batting average on contact (xwoBACON) of .358 from 2019.
Knowing how generous Miller Park plays for left-handed hitters, take a look at the spray chart from Narvaez with his new home park as the background covering the last three seasons:
While playing in Milwaukee should insulate a complete regression on power, fantasy owners will need to note Narvaez does not profile as a pull hitter. Here’s his heat map from the last three seasons:
Narvaez did make adjustments to his approach in 2019 and could do so again in Milwaukee. If he consciously tries to pull more batted balls, his power should not suffer. It could also be beneficial to his batting average due to how the park plays. Surely Christian Yelich can let Narvaez know the advantages to pulling the ball in Miller Park.
Over the last three seasons, Narvaez owns a .277/.362/.419 slash line with 116 runs, 33 home runs and 99 RBI in 961 at-bats. Yet, his steamer projection seems light at 87 games, 294 at-bats, 37 runs, 11 home runs, 40 RBI and a .260/.343/.414 slash. No one will predict another 20-home run season for Narvaez, but planning on a boost to his home run per at-bat rate of one every 29.1 would be prudent. In fact, if Narvaez reaches 400 at-bats, he could reach at least 17 home runs. Playing time will determine his ceiling. Omar Narváez does not jump off the page as a catcher to target. However, he owns a solid batting average baseline, a new home in a hitter-friendly ballpark and a chance to be on the right side of a productive platoon.
There’s an appeal to roster a catcher who will not weigh down a team’s batting average with some potential upside. If this proves appealing, target Omar Narváez this draft season. He can beat the Steamer numbers above.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Steamerprojections.com
https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
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