Upon signing with the Reds, Nick Castellanos told reporters he wishes to be known as Nick not Nicholas, so adjust accordingly. Fantasy owners will also be adjusting when to target Castellanos knowing he now calls a hitter friendly ballpark home. In 2019, Castellanos hit a respectable .289/.337/.525 with 100 runs, 27 home runs, 73 RBI and two stolen bases in 664 plate appearances. He’s the third right handed batter to record at least 55 doubles and 25 home runs in a season in major league history according to Stats LLC. His 58 doubles led the majors.

Many will focus on his white hot hitting once he joined the Cubs. Over his last 51 games, Castellanos slashed a robust .321/.356/.646 with 21 doubles, 16 home runs and 36 RBI. His 1.002 on-base plus slugging percentage ranked seventh in the National League in this time frame. Taking into account his whole season, check out his spray chart from last year with Great American Ballpark as the backdrop:

According to Statcast, Castellanos recorded 475 batted ball events with 53 barrels (16th in baseball) with an 11.2 barrels per plate batted ball event percentage, average exit velocity of 89 MPH and 13.9-degree launch angle. It does not take a rocket scientist to see how many outs or doubles from last year’s data could end up in the seats in Cincinnati. However, predicting how bouncy the baseballs will be along with how he adjusts to a new environment remains to be seen. It’s encouraging to see Castellanos surge once he left Detroit, hopefully this will carry over to the Reds.

Castellanos finished with a 38.9 ground ball percentage, 28.6 fly ball percent and 27.8 line drive rate. Of his fly balls and line drives, Castellanos owned a 93.9 MPH average exit velocity. He also improved his zone contact by 4.4-percent, reduced his swing percentage by 2.7 points and whiff percent by 3.3 percentage points. All told, Castellanos parlayed his strong hard hit rate (41.4-percent) to very good expected statistics. His expected batting average of .283 and expected slugging of .547 do not foretell too much regression going forward. Plus, Castellanos racked up a .443 expected weighted on-base average on contact, 70 points over league average. Here’s his zone profile:

Amidst his power peak, Castellanos arrives in Cincinnati with his career best isolated power (.236) last year and batted ball data driving his success during his time in Detroit. Over the last three years, Castellanos owns a .286/.337/.504 slash with 262 runs, 76 home runs, 263 RBI and eight stolen bases in 2,019 plate appearances. This translates to an average of 87 runs, 25 home runs and 88 RBI in this time frame. Very solid with some growth possible. Why? Once again, view all of his fly balls and line drives from the last three seasons with Great American Ballpark as the overlay in the chart below:

Many players with potential power upside fail due to their reliance on pulling the ball. However, Castellanos will benefit more if he keeps his approach driving the ball when going with a pitch. Think alike D.J. LeMahieu going to Yankee Stadium with his propensity to hit the ball the opposite way. Here’s Castellanos’ heat map from the last three years:

Taking into account all of the numbers, Nick Castellanos should set career highs in home runs in 2020. Even if baseballs end up less bouncy compared to last season. First, his projections from two sites:

  • Nick Castellanos 2020 Steamer Projection - 149 games, 661 plate appearances, 88 runs, 27 home runs, 90 RBI, three stolen bases; .275/.331/.490
  • Nick Castellanos 2020 ATC Projection - 148 games, 657 plate appearances, 93 runs, 27 home runs, 88 RBI, two stolen bases; .281/.334/.497

With deference to regression to the mean likely for many players, each projection seems light for Nick Castellanos . Personally, taking the over on home runs and RBI for each site with his slash lines coming closer to his three-year average above. This means planning on 30 or more home runs for Castellanos with a .286-ish average. Pretty good. If he surpasses the runs or RBI projected, it’s gravy. Due to signing with the Reds, his average draft position will rise, but if he settles in the top-85 picks, he’s still worth the reach. Power upside with batting average insulate will be worth its weight in gold in 2020. Target Castellanos with confidence.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

Baseball-Reference.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen