In an evergreen thought, Nelson Cruz gets overlooked in fantasy due to his limited eligibility as a utility player. Over the last three years, Cruz ranks second in home runs (119), third in RBI (327) and tied for 25th in average (.284) across the triple crown categories. In 2019, only Cruz and J.D. Martinez ranked in the top 10 of these three in the American League. Of course, Martinez gets taken in the second round in drafts while Cruz hovers near pick number 97 according to early average draft position in NFBC formats.

Last year, Cruz appeared in 120 games with 521 plate appearances, 81 runs, 41 home runs, 108 RBI and a .311/.392/.639 slash line. Cruz ranked sixth in the American League in average, third in home runs and seventh in RBI despite missing time with a wrist injury. He also finished second in the league in slugging percentage and on-base plus slugging (1.031).

According to Statcast, Cruz rated as one of the elite hitters in 2019 as well. Check out his rankings among his peers with at least 100 batted ball events:

  • First in barrels per plate appearances (12.5 percent)
  • Third in average exit velocity (93.7 MPH)
  • Fourth in hard hit percentage (51.5 percent) which represents the number of baseballs put in play with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or better
  • Fifth in barrels (65)

Age and being a designated hitter work against Cruz in valuation. However, he’s one of three major league players to hit at least 40 home runs in his Age-39 season or older joining Hank Aaron (1978) and Barry Bonds (2003 and 2004).

Delving into his data further, Cruz turned in an elite power hitting profile last season. Generating barrels in 19.9 percent of his batted ball data with a 13.1-degree launch angle, Cruz also did well in regards to his expected statistics with a .296 expected average, .644 expected slugging and a .419 expected weighted on-base average. His ability to produce above league average in xwOBA can be seen in this chart:

And within his zone profile, also courtesy of Statcast:

Replicating his 31.3 home run per fly ball percentage will be difficult to do. Noting his hard hit rates, Cruz pulled the ball in only 38.7 of his batted balls using the center of the field 36.2 percent of the time and hit to the opposite field in just over 25 percent of them. Here’s his spray chart from 2019 of all batted balls in play:

Entering his Age-40 season with the potential of a less bouncy baseball, Cruz still represents a profile for fantasy owners to target for power without sacrificing batting average. As Minnesota continues to add to its lethal lineup, Cruz will spend most of his time hitting third in the lineup. This resonates in his projection:

  • Nelson Cruz 2020 Steamer Projection - 147 games, 641 plate appearances, 97 runs, 40 home runs, 114 RBI, stolen base; .282/.363/.547

Nine players received a projection of at least 40 home runs by Steamer with J.D. Martinez (39) just missing. Yordan Alvarez owns an average draft position 50 spots higher than Cruz on average. Age and upside can affect a player’s perceived value. Nelson Cruz suffers from this year after year but continues to produce. Could his average migrate towards his projection above? Absolutely. Could his wrist injury issues linger? Yes. However, in terms of draft capital, taking Cruz later than Alvarez makes perfect sense, especially if targeting speed or pitching in the third round. Just be sure to reach above Cruz’s present average draft position to ensure getting him for a stable power source with production in runs and RBI as well. There will be a reduction in his production, but 2020 seems safe to expect more of the same for Nelson Cruz .

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

MLB.com - Game Notes

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com