Sometimes the fantasy community can be tough. Last year, Mookie Betts turned in a “down” year in fantasy despite leading the majors with 135 runs. Betts appeared in 150 games with 29 home runs, 80 RBI, 16 stolen bases and a .295/.391/.524 slash line. Part of the disappointment could be the drop in power during baseball’s best power environment on record. However, Betts owned a 13.7 walk percentage against a 14.3 strikeout percent.
His discipline metrics remain elite with a minuscule 5.1 swinging strike percentage (tied for fourth lowest in the majors among qualified hitters), an 86.6 contact rate (eight best), a 93.7 Z-Contact percentage (in the strike zone) ranking fifth among his peers and a 21.4 O-Swing percent (out of the zone) sixth lowest. Discerning how much of Betts reduced production could be bad luck may determine his ceiling entering his Age-27 season coinciding with a contract year as a pending free agent.
According to Statcast, Betts recorded 505 batted ball events with 52 barrels (10.3 percent), a 91 MPH average exit velocity and 19.1- degree launch angle. Betts matched his 2018 sweet spot percentage of 39.4 percent last year with a 46.6 hard hit rate. Along with his improved launch angle, Betts generated his lowest ground ball rate over the last five years of 31.9 percent, kept his fly ball percentage steady at 30.5 percent and his best line drive percent (29.1) of his last five seasons. Betts pulled the ball with slightly less frequency using the middle of the field more and maintaining the gains using the opposite field. Here is his spray chart of all batted ball data from 2019:
Noting his strong discipline ratings from Fangraphs, Betts also displayed some intriguing gains on Statcast. He improved his zone swing and contact percentages last year. Although his swing percent also rose, Betts reduced his whiff percentage. Transitioning to his expected statistics, Betts owned an expected batting average of .311, an expected slugging percentage of .573 and .408 expected weighted on-base average (28 points higher than his actual). This may not carry over to 2020, but Betts could see positive migration to the mean across all three categories of his slash lines. Add this to entering his power peak in a contract year and a career season could be in the offing. Here is his zone profile courtesy of Statcast:
Over the last three years, Betts accrued 1,745 at-bats with 365 runs, 85 home runs, 262 RBI, 72 stolen bases and a .299/.389/.535 slash line. This provides a solid baseline from his past with eyes on the future. It’s encouraging to see Betts average projections using five sites reflects a boost in power for the upcoming season:
- Mookie Betts 2020 Average Projection - 152 games, 117 runs, 32 home runs, 90 RBI, 19 stolen bases, .290 batting average
In the event of a truncated season, Betts projections would appear as such in two different scenarios:
- Betts 108-game projection - 83 runs, 23 home runs, 64 RBI, 14 stolen bases
- Betts 81-game projection - 62 runs, 17 home runs, 48 RBI, 10 stolen bases
Drifting from a top-three pick in fantasy drafts to later in the first round makes Mookie Betts an appealing target. He should hit close to .300 or better as reflected in his last three-year averages and his expected rate from Statcast. Hitting atop a loaded Dodgers lineup will not affect his ability to score runs at an elite level and he could produce a few more RBI.
Getting a player in the first round with the ability to hit 30 home runs and steal 20 or more bases makes Betts a rare commodity. Especially if he returns to an average above .300 in the year ahead. Fantasy sometimes focuses too strongly on recency bias but targeting Betts at a reduced price according to draft data makes perfect sense for 2020.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.