With another season not appearing in the playoffs combined with his season ending short due to injury, Mike Trout seems to be losing footing as the consensus number one pick in fantasy. When Trout appeared in his last game in 2019, he ranked tied for first in home runs (45) with Pete Alonso , fourth in runs, and 11th in RBI in the major leagues. Even though Trout’s final line of 110 runs, 45 home runs, 104 RBI, 11 stolen bases and a robust .297/.438/.645 slash would be a career year for most, fantasy owners seem to expect more.
Whether or not this remains fair, for the third straight year Trout missed time to injury. In 2019, Morton’s neuroma limited Trout to 134 contests and he logged 114 games in 2017 along with 140 in 2018 depressing his seemingly limitless talent. However, losing games in his prime seems to cast some aspersion to Trout going forward when taking him atop fantasy drafts. But, Trout set a career high in home runs last year ranking second in the American League despite missing most of September. He ranked tied for sixth in runs, ninth in RBI, and second in walks (110) in the American League within his 600 plate appearances. For the second time in his career, Trout accrued at least 100 runs, walks and RBI in a season.
Like many in baseball, Trout notched a career best isolated power (.353). His average dropping below .300 for the first time since 2016 can be attributed to some bad luck with a career low in batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .298 yet Trout still hit .291 for the year. Armed with an 18.3 walk percentage and 20.3 strikeout rate, Trout remains strong in terms of plate discipline pointing to a rebound in average for 2020 plus if he carries over the power gains in the midst of his power peak, could he be undervalued?
According to Statcast, Trout recorded 354 batted ball events with 66 barrels (18.6 percent) with a 90.7 MPH average exit velocity and 22.2 degree launch angle. Again, despite a shortened season, Trout amassed the second most barrels in the majors. His sweet spot percentage of 44.1 and hard hit rate of 44.3 percent do not portend much migration to the mean. Plus, Trout registered a five year low ground ball percentage of 25.4 percent last season with his highest fly ball rate (36.2 percent) and a steady 29.4 line drive percentage. A power hitter in his prime producing more fly balls seems alluring. He did pull the ball for power a bit more than usual in 2019 which can be seen in his spray chart:
It feels like Trout can do almost anything on the baseball diamond, except control his health. Not only did Trout exhibit tremendous power upside with a ridiculous .534 expected weighted batting average on contact (league average resided at .371), he also ranked 35th in the majors with a 29.2 feet per second sprint speed with a foot injury cutting his season short. Trout’s expected numbers reflect some bad luck with his .311 expected batting average, .669 expected slugging and .455 expected weighted on-base average (19 points above his actual). Here’s his zone profile courtesy of Statcast for reference:
Suggesting Trout’s one of the best players in baseball will not come as a revelation. However, trying to predict his 2020 comes with a bit of risk considering he’s averaged 129 games played over the last three years. Taking an aggregate average of his five projection sets on Fangraphs yields the following for Trout:
- Mike Trout 2020 Average Projection - 151 games, 120 runs, 44 home runs, 110 RBI, 16 stolen bases, .297 average
It’s apparent the projection modules account for Trout’s power spike and see the average rising in the year ahead. Unlike many, Trout’s projections in a truncated season could stand out depending on how aggressive he will be this season. Accounting for two different scenarios, here’s how Trout’s numbers could be:
- Trout’s 108-game season projection - 86 runs, 31 home runs, 79 RBI, 11 stolen bases
- Trout’s 81-game projection - 64 runs, 24 home runs, 59 RBI, nine stolen bases
Since the Angels added Anthony Rendon to the lineup, Trout may run less than previous seasons knowing Rendon and Ohtani can drive him in from first base. Plus, the team could ask Trout to run less to ensure health. With fantasy owners trying to procure steals in the early rounds of drafts, this pushes Ronald Acuña Jr. and Christian Yelich ahead of Trout in many drafts. However, overlooking Trout’s gains in fly ball rate leading to a power surge makes owning one of the top three spots in drafts alluring this season. It would be a shame if a shortened season cuts short Trout’s Age-28 season but it cannot shroud his production compared to his peers. Invest with confidence.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
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