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Almost an afterthought in most fantasy drafts last year, Lance Lynn turned in a career changing season in Texas. Turning in his highest innings pitched (208.1) resulted in his best strikeout total (246), Lynn surged to 16 wins, a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in baseball’s most hitter friendly environment in the live ball era. Trusting Lynn comes with some caveats, but he is recorded at least 10 wins in seven major league seasons. He also posted 16 starts of seven or more innings pitched, 20 quality starts, and 11 ultra-quality starts (seven plus innings, two earned runs or fewer) in 2020.
A tweak in his pitch usage unlocked his rebound fueling his 28.1 strikeout percentage and 6.7 walk rate. Lynn notched his best first-strike percentage (62.7) since 2013, his highest swinging strike percentage (12.5) of his career and his lowest contact rate allowed (74.4 percent). It remains to be seen if Lynn can repeat the gains displayed last year but shifting to Texas and buying into their analytical plan reaped rewards for those who nabbed him off the waiver wire.
Not only did Lynn become more aggressive in the strike zone early, he decreased using his sinker shifting to his four-seam fastball as his primary pitch with terrific results. Here is his arsenal last season courtesy of Statcast:
Compared to 2018, Lynn threw his four-seam fastball 9.2 percent more, reduced his sinker usage by 15.3 percent and tossed more cutters with great success during his career best strikeout rate. Note the changes while perusing his numbers by pitch:
- Four-seam fastball - 31.4 strikeout percentage, 30.7 whiff rate, 25 put away percent
- Sinker - 18 strikeout percentage, 19.3 whiff rate, 20 put away percent
- Cutter - 23.1 strikeout percentage, 26.2 whiff rate, 15.9 put away percent
- Curve - 49.1 strikeout percentage, 40.3 whiff rate, 20.8 put away percent
Perhaps more than anything, Lynn’s curveball effectiveness surged with the change in his arsenal. Using the same pitch plot chart, Lynn’s swing and miss chart reflects this:
Using more four-seam fastballs in the top third and above the strike zone allowed Lynn to change hitter’s views of his pitches, opening the door for swinging strikes below the strike zone. Beneath his surface statistics, Lynn upped his zone percentage to 50.3 but both zone swing and contact percentage decreased. Mitigating hard hits last year also proved to be a key to his success. Lynn also recorded fewer ground balls but increased his swing and whiff rates. With slight gains in pitch velocity, attacking the strike zone early and depressing hard hits, Lynn made strides in 2019. Even with the gains, Lynn’s underlying data of a 3.61 expected earned run average (xERA) and 3.13 FIP do not reflect too much luck attributed to his bounce back. Here’s his zone profile:
Projecting a veteran following a change in his arsenal gets tricky. Usually defaulting to the last three years of data, a baseline for Lynn can be set using these numbers. Over the last three seasons, Lynn owns a 37 - 29 record with a 3.90 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 560 strikeouts in 95 starts spanning 551.3 innings. Using the five projection sites on Fangraphs, Lynn’s average projection appears as such:
- Lance Lynn 2020 Aggregate Projection - 31 starts, 187 innings, 13 wins, 204 strikeouts, 4.03 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Weighing how much regression will occur for Lynn despite the change in his approach last year will make or break his 2020 campaign. If Lynn carries over the arsenal tweaks with success, he can mitigate the migration to the mean. Also, in a potentially shortened season, Lynn’s nine games with at least 10 strikeouts last year along with throwing at least 100 pitches in 31 of his 33 starts makes him more alluring. His projections in two different scenarios could look like this:
- Lynn projection in a 108-game season - 21 starts, 127 innings, nine wins, 138 strikeouts
- Lynn projection in an 81-game season - 16 starts, 96 innings, seven wins, 105 strikeouts
Lynn will turn 33 in May, so his price point in drafts reflects his veteran status coming off a career season. Many will treat Lynn with trepidation, but he could be a third starter in fantasy with second starter upside. Knowing he is capable of accruing innings and strikeouts plus the durability displayed last year increases Lynn’s appeal. There is no real upside lurking in Lynn’s profile but paying a price for close to a repeat of 2019 makes him a sneaky target. Winning the chat room in a draft does not translate to getting a veteran with a noted repertoire adaptation fueling his success. Act accordingly.
Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
MLB.com
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