Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager was always that guy that never cost too much in fantasy, but we was a safe, consistent option for his fantasy owners. From 2013-2017, he had at least 20 home runs, with 70 runs scored and a batting average above .260. Starting in about 2017, the batting average began to falter a bit, as he posted marks of .221 and .239 in 2018 and 2019 respectively. He was limited to just 106 games in 2019, however, but there were returns to more normal marks for Seager. Sure, batting average was down, but he also had a career low .248 BABIP. For reference, his career mark is .278.

Batting average aside, 2019 was shaping up to be a solid year for Seager. However, he was limited to just 106 games played. Take a look at his numbers, in terms of 162 game averages from 2014-2017, compared to 2018 and 2019.

 

2B

HR

RBI

2014-2017

35

28

92

2018

37

22

81

2019

29

35

96

Courtesy of Baseball Reference

If he would have avoided injury in 2019, what could have been for Seager? Based on his pace, he would have surpassed 30 home runs for the second time in his career, and his 96 RBI would have tied for the second-best mark of his nine-year career.

While his average exit velocity did drop overall compared to 2019, his launch angle slightly increased, he found the sweet spot a bit more, but his barrel rate rebounded to comparable marks from years prior. In 2018, he posted a career low 5.6 percent barrel rate, per Baseball Savant, but his 2019 mark of 8.4 percent was the third-highest mark of his career, per Baseball Savant. Most importantly on this, his average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives increased from 2018, which helps that home run total.

Yes, Seager is on the wrong side of 30 and a decline is inevitable, but he still has some productive years ahead of him. He doesn’t offer much speed, and while his batting average has been below .240 the past two seasons, he hit at least .258 in six of the previous seven seasons. Seager’s xBA of .264 last season indicates his average should have been higher, and his .248 BABIP was 30 points below his career mark. Again, wrong side of the luck coin for Seager in 2019.

Another thing I loved about Seager’s 2019 season was his decreased reliance on pulling the baseball. The mark had been trending down, but after a spike in 2018, it evened out, compared to 2016 and 2017.

Seager isn’t the flashy play, but he’s been durable for the majority of his career, and should return to an everyday role for the Mariners at the hot corner here in 2020. I really like Steamer’s projections for Seager this year, but I do think he gets to a .250 batting average this season. Sure, I may be higher on him then most, but Seager can hit .250 this season with 25 home runs and 75 RBI.

Let’s say those are the parameters here. A .250 average with 25 home runs and 75 RBI. He’s one of 16 third baseman to have projections that meet each of those marks. Where are they being drafted?

  • 3 in the first 17 picks
  • 5 in the first 24 picks
  • 9 in the top 75 picks
  • 14 in the first 100 picks
  • 1 at pick 121 (Eduardo Escobar )
  • 1 at pick 387.5 (Seager)

Every one of the guys eligible at third base that meet the numbers I outlined for Seager are going within the first 125 picks of the draft. Let another 250 picks go by, and you can get Seager, who will do that for you as well! I’m not saying to hold off to make Seager your starting third baseman, but he’s incredibly undervalued at his current average draft position (ADP) and makes for a great bench bat, or perhaps even a starting corner infielder in deeper formats.

Lastly, yes, I know we don’t want to buy too much into spring training numbers, but through his first 19 spring at-bats, he is hitting .316 with two extra-base hits. Sure, no power as of yet, but it’s encouraging that he’s seeing the ball well in spring.

Long story short, Seager is one of my favorite players to target later in drafts. If you’ve taken your fair share of high upside or boom-or-bust guys and need a stable guy to round out your bench, Seager is the logical option. Remember, prior to 2019, he played in 154 or more games with 20+ home runs in each year from 2012-2018.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
steamerprojections.com
baseball-reference.com