At a time when stolen bases seem scarce, fantasy owners seem to overlook Kolten Wong . He ranked seventh in the National League in steals last year with 24 along with recording the fifth best average (.342) and 11th best on-base percentage (.409) in the second half. Of course, his second half surge in average received a boost from an inflated .395 batting average on balls in play, but ignoring his 24 stolen bases and 28 attempts could be a mistake.

It’s difficult to gauge Wong due to his inconsistent totals throughout his career. With such variance, he can be tough to predict and therefore, trust. Last year, Wong appeared in 148 games with 61 runs, 11 home runs, 59 RBI and .285/.361/.423 slash line. Wong recorded an 8.6 walk percentage with a 15.1 strikeout rate. His isolated power rose to .138 and he notched an 8.1 home run per fly ball percentage, but power does not drive his appeal. In terms of plate discipline, Wong improved his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) by 3.3-percent to 92.1 on the season with a 7.6 swinging strike percentage and 83.8 contact rate.

According to Statcast, Wong registered 406 batted ball events with 10 barrels (2.5-percent), an 83.6 MPH average exit velocity and 10.6-degree launch angle. His underwhelming 25.1 hard hit rate in the year of the bouncy baseball casts some aspersions on his double-digit home run total. Wong generated a 47-percent ground ball rate, a 21.2 fly ball percentage and 22.4 line-drive percent. He stays to the middle of the field in 41.1 percent of his batted ball data while pulling the ball 34.2-percent of the time. Here’s his spray chart from last season:

Delving into his expected statistics, Wong owned a .259 expected batting average and a .368 expected slugging with a .308 expected weighted on-base average (26 points below his actual). Wong did boost his zone swing and contact rates along with an increase to his swing percentage while keeping his whiff percent steady. But, plan on some migration to the mean in Wong’s slash line in 2020 as evidenced in his zone profile:

While the Cardinals struggle to find a consistent lead-off hitter, Wong could log time there but produced his best averages hitting second or ninth last year. Slotting at second in the order would boost his runs and provide him with more chances to potentially run, but it remains to be seen. With all of this in mind, here’s Wong’s projection sets from three sites:

  • Kolten Wong 2020 Steamer Projections: 130 games, 524 plate appearances, 56 runs, 11 home runs, 55 RBI, 14 stolen bases; .267/.347/.409
  • Kolten Wong 2020 ATC Projections: 140 games, 542 plate appearances, 61 runs, 10 home runs, 55 RBI, 16 stolen bases; .264/.341/.398
  • Kolten Wong 2020 THE BAT Projections: 136 games, 589 plate appearances, 71 runs, 12 home runs, 56 RBI, 17 stolen bases; .259/.337/.393

Over the last three years, Wong’s slashed .274/.356/.409 with 24 home runs and 38 stolen bases. But, he only stole 14 in the two seasons prior to last year’s 24 and counting on double digit home runs seems unlikely this season. Of the three projections above, the ATC seems most likely. If targeting Wong, it’s for a roster built with solid counting statistics searching for double digit steals to round out a portfolio. Just do not count on a return to 2019’s results across the board.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty