For three straight seasons, it felt like Groundhog’s Day for Khris Davis . Between 2016-to-2018 he hit .247 in each season appearing in at least 150 games with 40 or more home runs while driving in over 100 runs in each. Then, a myriad of early injuries hampered Davis last season. Davis appeared in only 133 games with 61 runs, 23 home runs, 73 RBI and a paltry .220/.293/.387 slash line. Less than optimal.
His injury issues started on May 5th when Davis suffered a left hip contusion playing outfield in Pittsburgh during an interleague contest. He landed on the disabled list on the 24th of May with an oblique injury still lingering from the crash. Davis also suffered a hit-by-pitch near his elbow in June which caused some missed time with soreness in his left hand. Before his initial injury, Davis launched 10 home runs in April in only 119 at-bats with a .220 average. His average never recovered during the season, and the power dissipated with only 13 home runs his last 362 at-bats from May forward.
So before writing off Davis, fantasy owners need to digest the data. In 2019, he finished with a 20.5 line-drive percentage, 42.1 ground ball rate, 37.4 fly ball percentage and an 18.3 home run per fly ball percentage. Although his home run percent lagged below his prior three season output, it’s still respectable. On Fangraphs, Davis recorded a 46.4 hard hit rate in spite of his struggles.
Statcast did not go as well for Davis. His hard hit rate registered at 40.2 percent on this site among his 337 batted ball events. Davis suffered a drop in his average exit velocity from 92.5 MPH (13th overall) in 2018 to 90.1 MPH (77th overall) in 2019. He also cratered in barrel production falling from 70 generated in 2018 to only 34 last season. In order to give some light to this, here’s his spray charts from each season with exit velocity as the representation. First, from his 2016-through-2018 seasons during which he produced 133 home runs in 1,916 plate appearances:
Now, observe his spray chart from 2019:
It’s difficult to write off a hitter after one bad season, but everyone ages differently. In this case, Davis deserves a pass due to his consistent power production prior to last season’s complete crater. Again, deferring to Statcast, Davis owned a .233 expected average, a .442 expected slugging and intriguing .404 expected weighted batting average on contact. Plus, Davis slashed .270/.340/.481 on the road in 66 contests with 14 home runs in 237 at-bats compared to a .172/.247/.295 line at home in 67 games with nine home runs in 244 at-bats. Does this mean anything? I’m not sure but it’s worth noting.
Veterans prove to be terrific draft day bargains coming off a down year. Khris Davis will fit the category well. Early average draft position puts him near pick 200 in NFBC drafts. Power lies in wait throughout drafts with many seeking pitching and steals in the first 10 rounds. Letting Davis slip this far will be a mistake. Steamer projections agree. Davis enters 2020 slated for 147 games, 481 at-bats, 87 runs, 39 home runs, 104 RBI and a .243/.321/.497 slash. Of course, it would be fitting if Davis blasts 40 home runs with a .247 average for old time sakes but his owners definitely will take his projection at his current cost.
There’s absolutely nothing sexy about taking Davis in drafts in 2020, but betting he will be on the roster of winnings teams at year’s end. Heed the loss in average exit velocity as confirmation of his lingering injury issues in 2019 to profit in the end game with a potential 40 home run bat in double digit rounds. It’s a brave new world in fantasy baseball drafts, but Davis can still provide Khrush to a roster.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Steamerprojections.com
https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
Baseball-Reference.com
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