Amidst his breakout season, Ketel Marte missed a few games in the season prior to his season ending back injury in late September. All told, Marte appeared in 144 games with 97 runs, 32 home runs, 92 RBI, 10 stolen bases, and a robust .329/.389/.592 slash line over 628 plate appearances. Improved plate discipline and a surge in power fueled Marte’s success. Note his ranks in the National League across so many categories:
- First in multi-hit games (59)
- Second in hits (187)
- Second in batting average (.329)
- Third in triples (9)
- Fourth in total bases (337)
- Fourth in three-hit games (17)
- Fourth in on-base plus slugging percentage (.981)
- Fourth in slugging percentage (.592)
- Sixth in on-base percentage (.389)
Marte set career highs in hits, doubles (36), home runs, RBI and runs. From June 15th until his season ended, Marte recorded a .380 average (109-for-287) with a .445 on-base percentage, .655 slugging percent, 22 doubles, six triples, 15 home runs, and 45 RBI in 75 games.
Adding to his appeal, Marte logged 96 games in center field, 83 at second and 11 at shortstop. His improved average accompanied an 8.4 walk percentage and 13.7 strikeout rate. His isolated power spiked to .264 and his home run per fly ball percentage to 19 percent. He slightly increased his swinging strike percentage to 7.8 percent while his contact rate lowered by 2.3 percent. However, Marte’s Z-Contact (in the strike zone) remained above 90 percent. A bit more aggressive but with terrific results.
According to Statcast, Marte registered 485 batted ball events with 45 barrels (9.3 percent), an 89.8 MPH average exit velocity and an 11.5 degree launch angle. He owned a hard hit rate of 40 percent and a 34.6 sweet spot percentage. His ground ball rate dropped by over eight percentage points to 43.7 percent with a fly ball rate of 23.7 and a 26.4 line drive percentage. Marte pulled the ball 40.2 percent of his batted ball data while using the middle of the field 38.1 percent of the time. Here’s his spray chart from last season:
Transitioning to his expected statistics, Marte finished with a .299 expected batting average and .521 expected slugging. Not much of a difference from his season totals, but you should expect some pullback. His on-base average could see migration to the mean with an expected weighted on-base average 36 points lower than his actual. Here’s his zone profile courtesy of Statcast:
It’s tough to repeat a career year and the projections reflect this for Marte. It will make for an interesting trend to track for 2020. Here’s how three different sites foresee his upcoming season:
- Ketel Marte 2020 Steamer Projections: 150 games, 647 plate appearances, 23 home runs, 83 RBI, eight stolen bases; .296/.360/.502
- Ketel Marte 2020 ATC Projections: 151 games, 630 plate appearances, 24 home runs, 79 RBI, 10 stolen bases; .295/.358/.504
- Ketel Marte 2020 THE BAT Projections: 151 games, 651 plate appearances, 91 runs, 23 home runs, 86 RBI, nine stolen bases; .294/.354/.488
Noting all three projection systems predict Ketel Marte to hit at least .294 proves encouraging. Despite entering his power peak, all three forecast a drop in power to less than 25 home runs. Marte recorded the 12 best maximum exit velocity in the majors last year (116.3 MPH) and the third ranked maximum home run distance (482 feet). Yes, the baseball could be less “bouncy” in 2020, but Marte should exceed 25 home runs. Will he hit over 30, this becomes murkier, but entering his prime, with health should ensure Marte comes close to hitting .300 with a bevy of runs and RBI in Arizona’s lineup. At his present price point, Marte’s a buy for this year, just not the bargain he represented last season.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Steamerprojections.com
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
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