It’s been screamed from the mountain tops, “Never pay for a career year!” Yet, fantasy players still do not subscribe to it. In 2019, Jonathan Villar set career highs in games (162), at-bats (642), hits (176), runs (111), triples (5), home runs (24) and RBI (73). He recorded 53 multiple hit contests and finished with a .274/.339/.453 slash line. A second half surge fueled Villar’s career bests hitting .291 after the break with 88 hits in 302 at-bats, 56 runs and 32 RBI over 73 games. Villar ranked third in the majors with 40 stolen bases while the category continues to disappear across the fantasy landscape. Adding to his appeal, Villar notched the first 20 or more home run with 40 or more steal season since Carlos Gómez in 2014.
Discerning how to value him for 2020 presents some problems. First, in terms of cost. Villar owns an average draft position of 36th overall in NFBC in draft and hold formats. So, it will require a top-40 pick to roster Villar this season. This seems like a risky proposition. It’s one thing to target steals, it’s another to overpay for them just because Villar could provide them in the season ahead. Weighing how his new home in Miami will affect his numbers needs to be assessed. Baltimore ranked 11th in the majors in stolen bases attempted in 2019 with 0.70 per game while the Marlins finished 21st with only 0.52 per contest. In pure volume, the Orioles stole 84 bases in 114 tries while the Miami tallied 55 steals in 85 attempts last year.
Not only did Miami prove to be less aggressive on the bases, Villar will transition to a ballpark which leans towards pitching despite the fences being moved in. Starting with Villar’s batted ball data, he recorded a .179 isolated power with a .341 batting average on balls in play. It seems like his inflated BABIP helped propel his batting average but Villar notched a .339 BABIP in 2018 with an accompanying .260 batting average. Things which make you go hmmm.
Villar swatted 24 home runs with a 16.7 home run per fly ball percentage. He traded ground balls for fly balls with success, but Camden Yards rewards this type of tendency, Miami may not. According to Statcast, Villar registered 472 batted ball events with 32 barrels (6.8 percent), an average exit velocity of 87.7 MPH and launch angle of seven degrees. Here’s his spray chart from 2019:
Concern lies in perusing Villar’s expected statistics. Last year, Villar’s expected batting average of .249 and expected slugging of .412 sit lower than his actual ones. He did boost his hard hit percentage to 37.1 but his expected weighted on-base average finished 22 points below his true rate. Players with speed can overcome expected numbers, but there’s some concern in Villar’s profile along with his charts. First, his zone profile from 2019:
Next, take note of Villar’s rolling weighted on-base average (wOBA) versus league average for his career:
Villar’s second half spike stands out as an outlier above. It also accompanies a crater in the midst of it. Projections can be tough, but with a volatile profile like Villar, it’s even more difficult.
Delving into his plate discipline, Villar recorded an 8.5 walk percentage with a 24.6 strikeout rate. He also finished with a 12.4 swinging strike percentage, 74.9 contact percent and 81.5 Z-Contact (in the strike zone). On Statcast, Villar reduced his whiff percentage by two points which helps, but not enough.
Over the last three years, Villar’s appeared in 428 games with 1,680 plate appearances, 215 runs, 49 home runs, 159 RBI, 100 stolen bases and a .261/.323/.410 slash line. He attempted 122 steals in this time frame and will hit leadoff for the Marlins. Here’s his projections from two different sites:
- Jonathan Villar 2020 Steamer Projection - 149 games, 657 plate appearances, 78 runs, 17 home runs, 64 RBI, 32 stolen bases; .257/.327/.407
- Jonathan Villar 2020 ATC Projection - 143 games, 612 plate appearances, 77 runs, 16 home runs, 58 RBI, 33 stolen bases; .258/.325/.402
Both projection systems agree Villar’s average will migrate towards his last three year rate compared to last year’s. Each seems light on runs and depending on how the Marlins offense improves, the RBI total in the ATC projection seems more within reach. It’s true fantasy owners will overpay to secure stolen bases. However, be sure to adjust for regression and view Villar with the appropriate lens. Could he repeat 2019? There’s a possibility, but use the projections above as a baseline of value in case Villar does not.
Jonathan Villar turned in a terrific season in 2019 but feels overpriced due to his ability to generate stolen bases. His overall skill set suggests paying full retail will be a risky venture not for the faint of heart.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Steamerprojections.com
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen