2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Joey Gallo

What a year it could have been for Joey Gallo in 2019. Not only was he on pace for 40 or more homers for the third straight season, but he was actually hitting for average, too, as his .253 average would have been a career high by nearly 50 points! Would it have come down as the season went on? Perhaps, considering that he was riding a .368 BABIP, and that was over 100 points higher than the year before. He was an All-Star for the first time, and rightfully so, after he hit 20 home runs, drove in 46 runs and hit .275 through the first 61 games of the season. Then, the injuries hit, and that was all she wrote. Gallo showcased some great things in 2019, before injury cut it short, but does that parlay into 2020, or will he revert back to a .210 average with 40 home runs? I mean, it certainly plays, but any increase in batting average would certainly delight many.

Gallo showcased reverse splits last year, as he destroyed southpaws, which is typically not the case for a left-handed hitter. Actually, the improvement was staggering, and should be viewed as an outlier, and not the new norm.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

That’s a staggering mark! That number is going to come down a bit, for sure, in 2020. Furthermore, he used the left side of the field a bit less, and relied on pulling the ball more than ever. Did he have more success? Sure did, despite team’s deploying a shift nearly 96 percent of the time, per Baseball Savant.

Despite being shifted on a ton, he managed to hit .174 on ground balls to his pull side, which doesn’t sound great, but it’s honestly not bad. Luckily, he hits the ball so darn hard, that even if it is on the ground, there’s a chance that no one can get to it. That number is likely to come down, and a lot of his numbers from last year are rather inflated. Will they revert back to where they were in recent years, no, but that’s because I don’t envision Gallo being a .210 hitter. He made some strides, including swinging a bit less, but I think a more “selectively aggressive” approach will allow Gallo to reside closer to that .230-.235 range in 2020.

Take a look here at some of his numbers:

Courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Savant

He swung outside of the zone less. Good.

He swung less in the strike zone. Okay.

His SwStr% went down for the fourth straight year. That’s good.

He swung at the first pitch less frequently. Okay.

His walk rate jumped to a career high 17.5 percent. Excellent.

His strikeout rate jumped. Huh? Didn’t expect that to be honest.

At this point, what you see is what you get with Gallo. In a fully healthy season, you’re getting a high power floor with a low batting average, but he does have positional flexibility when setting those lineups which is key. Nobody had a higher barrel rate per batted ball event than Gallo last season, and his 11.4 Brls/PA percent trailed only Nelson Cruz and Gary Sánchez , per Baseball Savant.

If you ask me, I’m completely fine with Gallo going off the board in the seventh round of a 12-team draft. He’s currently the 22^nd outfielder off the board, and in some formats, you can slot him in at first base if need be. I’ll take it! It appears that I’m not the only one buying into Gallo ending the year as a .230-.235 hitter….

Courtesy of ATC, Depth Charts and Steamer Projections

Ultimately, Gallo is a one trick pony. You’re getting massive power, but it does require some action items to ensure that you have some counters to his lower batting average. Gallo is Peter Alonso with a couple extra stolen bases, and a batting average about 15-20 points less. Oh yeah, and he comes with a 50 pick discount. Don’t overlook the obvious value with Gallo here.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball