Trading Shane Greene at the deadline opened the door for fantasy owners to finally see how Joe Jiménez would handle the ninth inning. He responded by converting his last six save opportunities and nine of 10 from August until the end of last season. Jimenez finished with four wins, seven losses, nine saves, 15 holds, 82 strikeouts against 23 walks, a 4.37 ERA, 4.66 FIP and 1.32 WHIP in 66 appearances spanning 59.2 innings. 

Beneath these numbers, Jimenez recorded career highs in swinging strike percentage (14.8-percent) and in O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percent (35.2). He also notched career lows in contact allowed (70.2-percent) and Z-Contact (in the strike zone) of 76.2-percent. His strikeout percentage rose to 31.9-percent, but his walk rate also increased slightly to 8.9-percent for 23 strikeouts minus walks percentage. 

Transitioning to Statcast, here is the arsenal of Jimenez from 2019:

Jimenez used more sliders in 2019 with fewer changeups, perhaps due to the lowered seams affecting his grip on the change. Gains in first strike percentage last year to 66.2-percent from 53.2-percent in 2018 signal a more aggressive Jimenez, a trend he will need to continue. His fastball usage of 68.4-percent comes with a 29.2 whiff percentage and 23.7 put away percent. However, of his 33 hits allowed to the pitch, 18 went for extra-base hits. His slider use went up last season to 25.9-percent and recorded a 40.5 whiff percentage with a 26.3 put away percent. Representing his most effective pitch last season, here is his swing and miss chart courtesy of Statcast:

Fueling his strong finish, Jimenez owned an ERA of one in September giving up a home run his last outing but holding on for the save. His 12:1 K:BB over his last nine innings provides hope for carrying momentum over to the 2020 season. Depressing home runs will be a key to his success since Jimenez remains a fly ball pitcher. In 2019, he yielded a 29.7 ground ball percentage versus a 35.1-percent fly ball rate and line drive percentage of 23 per data on Statcast. Maintaining the first strike percentage would allow Jimenez to rack up strikeouts on elevated fastballs and sliders down in the zone as evidenced above. Plus, if the seams return to normalcy in the year ahead, a rebound by his changeup would be a welcome asset, especially versus left-handed hitters. 

Although the Tigers will struggle to win games, his team’s patience, and loyalty to its closer should endear Jiminez to fantasy players not willing to overpay for saves. Although Jimenez served up a home run in three straight outings in August, he remained the closer recording a win and five saves. This will not reflect in his projections but should resonate with owners. 

Using the average of four projection systems on Fangraphs, here’s how a potential 2020 could appear for Jimenez: 

  • Joe Jiménez 2020 Aggregate Projection - 65 games, 64 IP, four wins, 28 saves, 79 strikeouts, 3.95 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

It’s encouraging to see the saves total and reduced WHIP for Jimenez, but he needs to reduce the ERA if he’s going to be a second tier closer with upside. Strikeouts will keep him in the conversation so watching how he progresses with the slider and limiting home runs will be a key to his success. In the event of a shortened season, here is his numbers in two different scenarios: 

  • Jimenez projection in a 108-game season: 40 games, 40 IP, three wins, 18 saves, 49 strikeouts
  • Jimenez projection in an 81-game season: 32 games, 32 IP, two wins, 14 saves, 40 strikeouts

For fantasy, Jimenez projects as a second closer in mixed leagues with upside. Hope lies in his team’s loyalty to a one closer system and strikeout upside in his Age-25 season.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com