Due to last season’s hitting environment, the premium on ace pitchers continues to climb in major league salaries along with prices in fantasy drafts or auctions. Jacob deGrom represents one of the most stable pedigrees on the mound in real life along with fantasy. He’s the reigning back-to-back Cy Young Award winner in the National League becoming the 11th pitcher to win the award in consecutive seasons. deGrom led the National League in strikeouts and WHIP, ranked second in ERA plus finished third in innings pitched.

Not only did deGrom record a 2.07 ERA from May until the end of the season, he fired 23 scoreless innings to close out his Cy Young campaign. Despite this surge of success, deGrom only notched 11 wins among his 19 decisions in 2019. He did register an impressive 2.43 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 255 strikeouts versus 44 walks. deGrom also turned in the best swinging strike percentage (15.4-percent) of his career, limited contact to 70.9-percent and maintained his O-Swing (swings and misses at pitches outside the strike zone) at 37.9-percent.

Before delving into his Statcast data, here’s a look at deGrom’s arsenal courtesy of the site:

Noting how much he uses each pitch, it will be interesting to see if deGrom would be willing to deploy his change-up more often. It’s very effective but could open the door to more strikeouts going forward. Maybe when deGrom loses some velocity it will occur. In an effort to focus on how deGrom generates his swinging strikes, here’s the same pitch plot with pitches resulting in swings and misses only:

Elevated fastballs with change-ups and sliders diving down in the zone prove effective for deGrom. In 2019, here’s how deGrom’s pitches performed according to Statcast:

  • Four-seam fastball - .224 expected batting average, .399 expected slugging, 27.9-strikeout percentage and 27.1-whiff percentage
  • Slider - .192 expected batting average, .277 expected slugging, 33.8-strikeout percentage, 35.5-whiff percentage
  • Change-up - .186 expected batting average, .273 expected slugging, 40.7-strikeout percentage, 39.6-whiff percentage
  • Curve - .269 expected batting average, .334 expected slugging, 22.2-strikeout percentage, 29.5-whiff percentage

Of 498 batted ball events against deGrom, he yielded only 25 barrels (five-percent) which ranks among the best in baseball. For the season, deGrom recorded a .209 expected batting average against, .327 expected slugging only minuscule .253 expected weighted on-base average. His dominance can be seen in his zone profile:

Over the last three years, deGrom’s logged 622.1 innings with a 36-27 record, 763:149 K:BB, 2.53 ERA, 2.97 xFIP and 1.02 WHIP. Within these numbers, he’s registered a 24.9 strikeouts-minus-walks percentage, a 3.17 SIERA, a 14.6 swinging strike percentage and 36.2 O-Swing. It stands to reason deGrom deserves many more wins and could stand to benefit from some positive migration to the mean in the category.

Due to his stable skill set, years of dominance and a plus pitcher’s park, deGrom will see his price stock escalate in high stakes fantasy leagues. Prices on pitching continue to rise and as the season nears, deGrom and Gerrit Cole could be taken within the top-five picks. Blasphemy? There’s a terrific document titled Change or Die, in which patients were told to change their dietary or health habits to survive. Most could not. Fantasy analysts will insist on waiting on pitching because its always been the way. However, as average draft data (ADP) continues to evolve, between 11-to-13 pitchers could be taken in the first three rounds of 15-team drafts in 2020. This represents almost one-third of the picks. Waiting to draft an ace could be a detriment to a team trying to protect ratios. One can find power on the waiver wire, but not a pitcher who will reduce ERA and WHIP.

Jacob deGrom will be worth a top-five pick in 15-team formats. He can be taken in the first round of 12-team drafts as well. Steamer projects him for 15 wins, 205 innings, 259 strikeouts, 49 walks, a 3.12 ERA, 3.20 xFIP and a 1.06 WHIP in 2020. Pretty darn good. His last three seasons suggest it’s well within reach, except the 15 wins which reflects more on the Mets than deGrom. If leaguemates insist on waiting on pitching, zig when they zag. Feel free to draft two aces in the first four rounds then construct the offense with potentially one more starter in the first ten picks. Then round out the team portfolio based on need as the draft progresses. As Bob Dylan taught us, The Times They Are A-Changing.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

Steamerprojections.com