Like many Astros players, George Springer comes with a slightly reduced-price tag according to his average draft position with aspersion cast due to cheating during at-bats knowing what pitch would be coming. Despite missing time last year with a hamstring injury, Springer set career highs in home runs (39) and RBI (96) plus each part of his slash line (.292/.383/.591). Logging only 122 games, Springer still scored 96 runs with six stolen bases. His strong start to the season fueled his surge in power and average. But, how much will this be reduced in 2020 with teams focused on Houston’s past practices? 

Before delving into Springer’s batted ball data, he improved his walk percentage to 12.1 last year along with an increase to his strikeout rate to 20.3 percent. Beneath his surface statistics, Springer’s swinging strike percentage rose to 11 percent, his contact rate fell 3.2 points to 75 percent and his Z-Contact (in the strike zone) decreased by 2.5 percent to 82.7 in 2019. With some increased aggression, Springer traded contact for power. It’s not an overwhelming swing in his numbers, but a trend worth noting with regression pending. 

According to Statcast, Springer recorded 370 batted ball events with 53 barrels (14.3 percent), an 89.8 MPH average exit velocity and 10.3-degree launch angle. Like many major leaguers last season, Springer’s hard-hit rate rose to 44.8 percent and his sweet spot percentage of 33 represented a gain, rising just under three points. It is surprising to see Springer generate so many ground balls with a 44.6 ground ball rate, but it went down compared to 2018. He also hit fewer fly balls but a rise in line drives to 25.1 percent (up over six points) helps explain his career best batting average. Even with his friendly hitting confines in Minute Maid Park, Springer does not sell out as a pull hitter but takes advantage in his home runs to his pull side as seen in his spray chart:

In an almost unbelievable statistic, Springer hit 27 home runs among his 204 batted ball events (13 percent of his events versus the pitch) averaging one every 7.55 batted ball events. Reinforcing the numbers above, Springer increased his zone swing percentage, but his zone contact percent fell while his whiff percentage rose. Transitioning to his expected statistics, Springer finished with a .287 expected batting average, .578 expected slugging and .398 expected weighted on-base average. Here’s his zone profile courtesy of Statcast:

Over the last three years, Springer is appeared in 362 games with 1,571 at-bats, 310 runs, 95 home runs, 252 RBI, 17 stolen bases and a .279/.365/.512 slash line. Prior to last year’s 122 games, Springer played in 140 games in both 2017 and 2018. His projections reflect both the reduced games played in a full season and pending regression for the upcoming season. Here’s an average of the five projection systems available on Fangraphs: 

  • George Springer 2020 Aggregate Projection - 144 games, 103 runs, 33 home runs, 90 RBI, seven stolen bases, .274 average

During the second half of last year, Springer hit .282 but carried over the power. Again, the circumspect surrounding targeting Houston players in fantasy puts Springer in the spotlight for 2020. In the event of a shortened season, here is his projections in two different scenarios: 

  • Springer 108-game projection - 77 runs, 25 home runs, 68 RBI, five stolen bases
  • Springer 81-game projection - 58 runs, 19 home runs, 51 RBI, four stolen bases

Staying healthy may be more tantamount to Springer’s success in fantasy this year than any pending migration to the mean. Heed his expected statistics from last year and slash over the last three years as a guide. Its apparent Springer made gains in his barrels and slugging percentage, but without knowledge of pitches can he repeat his success versus fastballs? Every player owns a price worth paying in fantasy, trust your gut and balance the risk in a roster if targeting Springer for 2020. 

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Statistical Credits: 

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com